Ducks vs Beavers NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The Oregon Ducks were hoping to bring a perfect record into their matchup with the Oregon State Beavers, but that won’t be the case following a tough loss to the Stanford Cardinal last weekend. Oregon is still the fifth-ranked team in the country, but they’re up for another big challenge in the final regular-season game of the year.
No. 5 Oregon Ducks (10-1) vs. No. 15 Oregon State Beavers (8-2)
Saturday November 24, 2012
Reser Stadium, CORVALLIS, ORE.
3:00 PM ET
Moneyline: Oregon -360, Oregon State +280 from Bovada
Spread: Oregon -9.5
O/U: 65.5
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The Beavers have been one of the surprises of the college football season, and they would love to earn their first Civil War victory since 2007.
Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks had a national championship within their grasps, but they let it slip away with a 17-14 overtime loss to the Stanford Cardinal last week.
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They’re looking to bounce back against the Beavers, but it won’t be easy against another strong defense.
The strategy for the Ducks is going to be getting the Beavers’ offense off the field. If Oregon State follows the blueprint set up by Stanford, they’re going to run clock and force Oregon’s offense to score with limited time of possession. The best way to do this is by forcing turnovers. Oregon State may be the second-best team in the conference when it comes to controlling the ball, but they’ve also given it away an average of four times per contest in their last two home games against their in-state rival.
Controlling the ball is important, but what this game really comes down to is how well Oregon can run the ball. We saw last week that when their running is completely shut down, it limits what the offense can do in both the running game and the passing game. If the Ducks can’t get Kenjon Barner and De’Anthony Thomas going, this game could come down to the wire. If they can, however, they’ll be running all over the Beavers’ defense, and they’ll put points on the board like they have been all season.
Oregon State Beavers
The Oregon State Beavers have been outstanding all season, yet they’ve seemingly been stuck in the shadow of their “big brother” team from Eugene. Now the group from Corvallis has the chance to take down the Ducks, and they’ll look to do it with their passing attack this weekend. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Beavers have been borderline elite all season when it comes to their air attack. They’ve dropped slightly in recent weeks because of quarterback health, but they are still 22nd in passing yards with 303.4 yards per game. The problem heading into this game, as it’s been all season, is converting those yards into points. They are just 59th in the country in points per game, which could prove to be a problem if they can’t stop Oregon’s offense.
But if Stanford proved anything last week, it’s that the Ducks’ offense can be stopped. The Beavers are 14th in the country in rushing defense, and that will be a huge area of concentration entering Saturday. Oregon State allows just 18.6 points per contest, and if they can keep Oregon anywhere near that mark, they’ll have the edge at home.
Unfortunately for the Beavers, stopping Oregon’s offense is something only one team has done this season. The Ducks need help from the rest of the country when it comes to making the BCS title game—as well as the Pac-12 championship—but what they can control is how well they play against OSU. If they make plays out in space and utilize their speed, they should take advantage and bounce back from their first loss of the year.
Trends
Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Ducks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Ducks are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Beavers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
O/U Pick: Over 65.5
Score Prediction: Oregon 39 – Oregon St. 27
