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UCF vs. Houston Free Week 10 Preview & Pick (Nov. 5)

On Friday November 5th its the UCF Knights vs Houston Cougars. Odds have the Knights listed as 1.5-point favorites. The game’s total is not set at 61.5, here is a preview, free pick plus the college football betting angle.

NCAA Football Odds – Central Florida Knights vs Houston Cougars Free Pick & Preview

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Central Florida vs. Houston

Friday November 5 – 8:00PM
Robertson Stadium – Houston, Texas
UCF (6-2) vs Houston (5-3)
Moneyline: UCF -130, Houston +110
Spread Favourite: UCF -1.5
Over/Under: 61.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!

Central Florida

The Knights are one of the better teams that nobody talks about.  They have only two losses by a total of 11 points and have one of the stingiest defenses in the nation as evidenced by the way they slowed K-State running back Daniel Thomas and NC State QB Russell Wilson in those losses.  Since conference play began they have been perfect, the only team in Conference USA that can make that claim.

The reason they are having so much success is that once conference play began they started getting a lot more production out of their offense.  The Knights have scored 42, 35, 41 and 49 points the last four weeks.  Pair that with defensive performances of 7, 14, 14 and 35 and you have a good formula for success.  The Knights have always been the rare C-USA team that plays defense.  Now they appear to have balance and it might result in a championship.

Residing in separate divisions the Knights and the Cougars have only met three times including last year.  Each time the home team won covering in the process.  Houston was the favourite in each one of those games but that is not the case this week.  With the better overall team UCF might be able to pull of the first road victory in this series.

Houston

I think the Cougars are one of the more surprising teams of the season.  All was thought to be lost after losing their top two QBs in one game but since then they are 3-2, and if they hadn’t lost to Rice they would be in the catbird seat in their division.  The rest of their schedule is pretty challenging but all they need is one more victory to qualify for a bowl game.  This week against UCF and next week against Tulsa present the best opportunities.

Despite having to start their third string QB, a freshman named David Piland, who was actually fourth on the depth chart to start the season, Houston is 8th in the nation in scoring at 41ppg.  He may not be BCS busting this season but coach Kevin Sumlin is proving his mettle as a coach this year holding this team together while their top QB and RB were out.  Piland has looked very good and with Bryce Beall healthy has as good a set of weapons as any QB in the nation.

Unfortunately the Cougars can not outscore everybody.  In their 3 losses they have given up more than 31 points each time.  When their offense sputters they don’t get enough help from the D to get the win.  The Cougars have been able to move the ball on the Knights in the past and will be looking to avenge their loss last year.  With the Knights new found offensive prowess that is going to be much harder as they will be able to keep pace against the weak Cougar defense.

The Pick: I really like this UCF team this year.  That defense should be able to slow Houston sufficiently for their offense to score enough points for a double digit victory.

College Football Gambling Trends

Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-0 in Knights last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Knights last 4 games as a favorite.

Score Prediction:  UCF 38 – Houston 28

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