Longhorns vs Bears Betting Free pick
This game features Baylor hopeful QB Robert Griffin facing Texas, who has the best defense in the Big 12.
Venue / Stadium: Floyd Casey Stadium, WACO, TX
Time/Date: 3:30 PM EST Saturday, December 3, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Texas +120 / Baylor -140
Spread (ATS): Baylor -2.5
Over/Under: 63.5
No. 22 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 17 Baylor Bears Preview
Griffin sat out the 2nd half of the Bears’ last game after getting knocked in the head, but he is expected to play in this season finale.
Can Texas stop the Baylor QB that ranks 5th in the nation in TD passes and 6th in passing yards? That is the big question for the Longhorns in this game. NCAAF lines have Baylor as slight 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 63.5 points.
In their last games Texas beat Texas A&M 27-25 and Baylor beat Texas Tech 66-42.
Last season in Austin Baylor beat Texas 30-22.
Griffin leads Baylor and their offense, which not only has a dynamic passing attack, but also ranks 17th in the nation in rushing yards per game and is the nation’s 6th highest scoring team. Texas ranks 35th in pass defense and they have to keep tabs on Griffin’s main target in WR Kendall Wright, who has at least 100 receiving yards in 8 games this season including his last 3.
Griffin is the Bears 2nd leading rusher and he is joined in the backfield by RB Terrance Ganaway, who rushed for 246 yards in the win over Texas Tech. The Longhorns have the nation’s 7th ranked run defense and they will really be tested in this game.
The Longhorns only rank 96th in the nation in passing yards per game and since David Ash and Case McCoy have been splitting time under center the Longhorns have ran the ball more and they have the nation’s 20th ranked rushing offense.
Texas RB Malcolm Brown is the leading rusher for the Longhorns, but he has struggled in the last couple of games. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Longhorns have a few legit backs, but a few are banged up. The Longhorns only had 237 yards of offense in the win over Texas A&M, but they came up with 4 turnovers and played solid D. However, they may come up with more offense in this game since Baylor only ranks 102nd in the nation defending the run and 107th in defending the pass.
There is a 70% chance of rain in this game so the team that can run the ball may have a better chance to win.
Betting Trends
This season Baylor is 6-4 ATS with an O/U record of 8-1-1 and Texas is 6-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-6-1.
Texas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record, and has an Under record of s 4-1-1 in their last 6 games.
Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, and has an Over record of 10-1 in their last 11 home games.
Texas has covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games at Baylor.
Jason’s Pick: Texas is 0-3 this season against ranked teams and that trend will continue, as Griffin will play well and the Baylor rushing offense will not be stopped.
Take the Bears to win and cover in this game and with the rain coming I see the total going under, as both teams will run the ball.
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