Bulldogs vs Gators Handicapping Preview
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Week Seven: Mississippi State vs. (22) Florida Gambling Pick
Date/Time: Saturday October 16 – 7.05 pm EST
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville FL
Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-2) vs. Florida Gators (4-2) Betting Lines from MySportsbook.com
MoneyLine: Mississippi St. +250, Florida -300
NCAA Betting Favorite: Miss. St. (+7.5) Florida (-7.5)
Bet now @ MySportsbook.com –>
The Bulldogs’ record is a little deceiving, as MSU is 1-2 in conference play. They do have a nice win versus Georgia, however, and have been playing defense like they mean it. The offensive load, meanwhile, has been shared between QB Chris Relf and freshman QB Tyler Russell. Relf can scramble effectively, racking up nearly 300 yards rushing, while junior RB Vick Ballard has chipped in with 418 yards and an impressive 11 TDs. The aerial game is dependent on WR Chad Bumphis; if he gets thwarted the offense would undoubtedly suffer.
The Bulldogs D has treated opposing attacks like a can of Alpo; MSU ranks in the Top 25 in scoring defense at 17.5 ppg. Florida’s QB John Brantley has played inconsistent thus far, so the chances may be there for State’s defense to seize. The Swamp is always a daunting place – perhaps the most daunting place – to play in, so MSU needs to ride momentum it can generate from pressuring Brantley or causing turnovers to try to block out the orange and blue circus.
Mississippi State won a big game at Houston last week and if it found a way to somehow pull off an upset in Gainesville, the Bulldogs would have tons of good vibes for manageable upcoming opponents like UAB and Kentucky. To say the least, the flavor of the campaign thus far would do a complete 180.
Brantley is a young QB, and has looked it sometimes. Yet the Gators still have Florida-esque talent. They have the requisites to blow MSU out of the water and send them home with its tail between its legs. It will be interesting to see how Florida responds because the program is not accustomed to losing two consecutive games. For once, the Gators aren’t immediately looked at the juggernaut who will steamroll all comers. A loss at home to State would be utterly disastrous.
A humiliating 31-6 loss to Alabama (who promptly lost to South Carolina by two scores the next week!) was followed up by a heartbreaker versus LSU last week. Florida desperately needs to get back on track and it should happen behind the speed of Jeff Demps and dynamic receiving trio of Deonte Thompson, Carl Moore and Frankie Hammond Jr. Brantley can distribute the ball well if he keeps his head and doesn’t try to do too much.
The Florida defense was looking solid as always until the forgettable last two weeks. The unit must rebound to add a pinch of confidence and morale back to Gainesville. Two losses isn’t devastating in an SEC schedule and the rest of the slate is workable for Florida; Urban Meyer’s kids need to re-focus and win out, starting this week against MSU.
Look for Florida and its fans to be, in a phrase, pissed off. The Gators should be re-asserting their bid as a top team and look for that grouchiness to result in a lot of points against the Bulldogs. If Florida puts a couple scores on Mississippi State, the floodgates could well open and the score could get out of hand. However, if that doesn’t happen, maybe Florida is really and truly knocked off the throne for good. But expect the former rather than the latter.
Mississippi State is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Florida is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
Mississippi State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Mississippi State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Florida is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games
Florida is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State
Mississippi State vs. Florida Score Prediction: Mississippi State 12 Florida 38
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