Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers Handicapping Preview
Week 2 in the college football world gives us a tasty SEC match-up between a team on the rise and the home side Auburn Tigers, with a target on its back and lots to prove after a paltry effort in the opening week.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers
Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn AL
Saturday, Sept. 10, 12:21 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Bookmaker Sportsbook:
MoneyLine: Miss. St. -230, Auburn +190
Spread: Miss. St. -5.5, Auburn +5.5
Over/Under: 57
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Last year’s national champs just barely squeaked by the lowly Utah State Aggies, 42-38. The Tigers were down by 10 with 2:08 left in the game and needed two quick touchdowns aided by a successful onside kick. They literally needed a boatload of luck to avoid losing the season’s first game against what should have been a far inferior opponent.
College fans were wary about Auburn in 2011 after losing so many key pieces from 2010’s success story, mainly Heisman winner and first overall NFL pick Cam Newton. The Tigers need to find answers quick with the personnel they have, because if they play the kind of game they did versus USU, Mississippi State will come to town and pull the upset. Though the Tigers are ultimately 1-0, the effort was poor enough to drop last year’s champs out of the Top 25, the first time that’s happened to the national champs in the first week of the season since the poll has been kept (at least 1950).
The Bulldogs certainly have the players to make Auburn sweat. They looked great in their Week One tune-up game against Memphis, rolling up 645 yards of total offense and getting strong performances out of QB Chris Relf and RB Vick Ballard, who rushed for a career-high 166 yards and three TDs. Utah State, meanwhile, pushed Auburn around en route to 227 rush yards; if the Tigers cannot improve on that, a Bulldogs win almost seems likely. For the past couple seasons, the rushing attack has been the trump card for Mississippi State. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
In order for the Tigers to alleviate the concerns, QB Barrett Trotter needs to have a cool, collected performance, as he was a bright spot in Week One with 261 pass yards and three TDs against the Aggies. Starting tailback Michael Dyer had two scores, but only amassed 57 yards against what was supposed to be a crappy WAC school. Auburn probably still has a more talented depth chart top to bottom than the Bulldogs, but a cluster of young players on both sides of the ball must find their chemistry on the fly if Auburn has any hope of competing in the SEC West division this year.
Though it isn’t a cakewalk for Mississippi State, either. The Bulldogs have some tough tests in the next few weeks, though Auburn will be first and foremost on their mind. After a convincing Week One victory, a second straight win against the reigning title holders will have MSU looking very nice in the SEC West. Jordan-Hare Stadium is always a harrowing place to play, but Auburn only pulled out a 17-14 squeaker in Starkville, Miss., last season – and that was with the do-everything Newton under center.
Auburn could certainly shut up all the doubters and skeptics with a solid win this week, but a look at the absences on the roster and the empirical evidence from last week make it sure seem like the Tigers will be in tough. Thus far, all Auburn seems to do is win, even when the games are razor-close (the Tigers have won their last 16 games, many in ugly or last-minute fashion). When is Auburn finally going to run out of magic?
I’m banking on it being this weekend.
Trends:
Under is 7-1 in MISST last 8 conference games.
Over is 7-2 in AUB last 9 games in September.
AUB are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Over is 6-2 in AUB last 8 conference games.
MISST are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
Score Prediction: Miss. St. 21, Auburn 12
Over/Under Prediction: 33
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