Broncos vs Golden Eagles NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The Boise State Broncos’ relevancy went out the window for most casual fans when they lost to the Michigan State Spartans in the first week of the season. They’ve bounced back to win their last three games, but the interest level just isn’t there as the BCS-Buster label has gone missing from their program. The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are no BCS-Buster, either, but they’re coming off a close loss to No. 19 Louisville just a week ago.
No. 24 Boise State Broncos (3-1) vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles (0-4)
Saturday October 6, 2012
M.M. Roberts Stadium, Hattiesburg, MS
12:00 PM ET
Moneyline: Boise St. -400 Southern Miss +300 from GTBets.eu
Spread: Boise St. -11
Boise State Broncos
The Boise State Broncos’ offense hasn’t been top-tier this season without Kellen Moore running the show, but their defense has stepped up nicely to make up for lost ground. Giving up just 16.0 points per game (25th in the country), the team has looked solid despite their anemic offense.
The one major thing going for them on offense is that their junior quarterback, Joe Southwick, has been decently efficient up to this point. Having completed 78 of his 121 passes this season, the 6’1” man behind center has 929 yards and five touchdowns to just two interceptions.
The running game has been subpar with D.J. Harper scoring three times this year and rushing for 380 yards on 81 carries, but the real sparkplug has been tailback Jay Ajayi. The freshman has only rushed the ball seven times on the year, yet his 17.1 yard-per-carry average has made him a threat.
There’s no denying that the Broncos have played inferior programs since their week one loss to Michigan State, but that’s exactly what this team needed to get back on track. They’re not looking at a BCS title run, but they’re certainly ready to compete for a Mountain West championship.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are 0-4 on the season, but they’re coming off their most encouraging performance of the year against the No. 19 Louisville Cardinals. The Golden Eagles scored 17 points (their average for the season) en route to losing by four, but they held the Cardinals to just 21, which is 10 points under their season average.
Holding a ranked team under their average is a huge accomplishment for a team that is 102nd in the nation is points allowed per game (34.0), but you have to wonder if the downpour that took place acted as a major variable in the Cardinals’ struggles. The turf was soaked in water, the rain was acting as a second defender on every play and Louisville struggled in areas you wouldn’t expect against an 0-3 team.[soliloquy id=”82219″]
Luckily for the Broncos of Boise State, the forecast is all sunshine and beautiful clear skies heading into Saturday’s matchup at M.M. Roberts Stadium.
The Golden Eagles’ offense has been awful up to this point, and there’s no reason to believe they’re going to turn it around against one of the better defenses in the nation. Chris Campbell, the team’s junior quarterback, has thrown for just 229 yards and two touchdowns this season, while their two major running forces have combined for just 390 yards and two scores on the ground.
The Broncos may have lost in their only ranked game of the season, but they’ve come back and have defeated every team that they’re supposed to beat up to this point. They’re offense hasn’t been spectacular up to this point, so this game could come down to whether or not the Golden Eagles can put up points against their defense. If they can, expect the game to be closer than the spread indicates, but for Boise State to walk out of Hattiesburg victorious.
- Golden Eagles are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Golden Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
- Golden Eagles are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
- Golden Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Under is 4-0 in Golden Eagles last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-1 in Golden Eagles last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
O/U Pick: Under 47.5
Score Prediction: Boise State 21 – Southern Miss 13