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Baylor Bears vs. Texas A&M Aggies Week 7 Free Pick

Venue/ Stadium: Kyle Field, COLLEGE STATION, TX

This Big 12 rivalry is known as the “Battle of the Brazos” and this game should have a ton of fireworks since Baylor ranks 4th in the nation in scoring and Texas A&M ranks 18th.
Time/Date: 12 PM EST Saturday, October 15, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Baylor +285 / Texas A&M -340
Spread (ATS): Texas A&M -9
Over/Under: 76.5

No. 20 Baylor Bears vs. No 21 Texas A&M Aggies Preview

The Aggies have, statistically, the worst pass defense in the nation and that is a major concern facing Baylor’s electrifying QB Robert Griffin. NCAAF lines have Texas A&M as 9-point favorites with a high total of 76.5.

In their last games Baylor beat Iowa State 49-26 and Texas A&M beat Texas Tech 45-40.

Last season the Bears lost to the Aggies on the road 42-30.

Texas A&M and their 64th ranked defense have their work cut out for them in this game facing a Baylor team that is the only one in the nation that is averaging over 300 passing yards and 200 rushing yards per game. Robert Griffin has a solid WR corps and he is also the team’s 2nd leading rusher.

While the Texas A&M pass defense has been torched this season they have the 7th ranked rushing defense. Their main goal is to contain Griffin and the Bears’ leading rusher in RB Terrance Ganaway, who is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. The Aggies will have to take the heat off their secondary by getting to Girffin and they lead the nation with 21 sacks. Baylor’s offensive line has a lot of pressure on them in this game to give Griffin solid protection.

The Aggies are balanced on offense with the nation’s 17th ranked rushing offense and 33rd ranked passing offense. QB Ryan Tannehill played well in the win over Texas Tech and he and his legit WR corps will be facing a Baylor pass defense that ranks 83rd in the nation.

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The Texas AM RB duo of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael have combined for over 900 rushing yards this season, but they will be up against the strength of the Bears’ defense, which is defending the run ranked 35th in the nation. If these guys can run the ball it will help keep Griffin on the sidelines. Last week the Aggies rushed for 205 yards against Texas Tech.

Baylor is 0-11-1 in their last 12 games at Texas A&M.

Betting Trends

On the season Baylor is 3-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-0 and Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-2.
Baylor is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
Texas A&M is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Big 12 games, and has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

In the last 5 games between these 2 Big 12 teams the favorite has covered the spread every time.

Jason’s Pick: Yeah, Baylor is a good team and Griffin is a legit QB, but I think that the Aggies have more balance and they have a better defense. Texas A&M will win and cover and with the offenses each team has I would take the Over as well.

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About Jason Green

Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.


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