Vanderbilt Commodores vs Mississippi State Bulldogs | Free Pick (March 11)
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Vanderbilt 22-9 (15-11-1 ATS) vs Mississippi State 17-13 (9-15-2 ATS)
Friday march 11 – 10:00PM
Recent history: Vanderbilt beat the Bulldogs 81-74 in Starkville in January.
Vanderbilt vs vs. Mississippi State Odds: OFF
Total: OFF
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It wasn’t the prettiest of games but in the end Vanderbilt beat LSU last night in their round 1 opener. Their scoring was way down from normal but that could partly be attributed to the fact that leading scorer John Jenkins sat out the game even though he was available if necessary.
The Commodores got out to a big lead in the first half than held on, never letting the Tigers get closer than 8 points and shutting them out for the final 4 minutes of the game. It wasn’t their usual formula but it worked.
Vandy really struggled from deep against LSU without Jenkins. Mississippi State is a much better team and they might need him to go to keep the defense honest, he scored 19 in a win against them earlier in the season.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs took advantage of a weak division to grab the first round tournament bye. They now get Vanderbilt which is a tough matchup for them because they are so methodical and efficient. If Jenkins doesn’t play that would help tremendously as they would prefer this game to be more slugfest than ballet. 
For Mississippi State to have any chance they need to get superlative performances from the enigmatic duo of guard Dee Bost and forward Renardo Sydney. They are game changers and without them this team is sunk. If Sydney hadn’t fouled out of their previous games against Vandy the outcome might have been different.
He was largely ineffective for the game due to fouls but has been coming on as of late.
Betting Trends:
Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Commodores are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Free Commodores vs Bulldogs Pick: Jenkins status is important for this one. Vandy has likely already punched their ticket for the dance so they likely won’t force him out there. Keep an eye on this as I think it will be a close one anyway.
My assumption is that they rest him enabling MSU to upset the Commodores.
Score prediction: Mississippi State 71 – Vanderbilt 68
