Aztecs vs Lobos CBB Basketball Spread/Handicapping
The Aztecs postseason position should be secure but this win would only help. It would give them an outside shot at the Mountain West regular season crown and a sweep over the Lobos for the season – they are the only ranked team they have beaten this year.
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San Diego State Aztecs (20-7) vs #14 New Mexico Lobos (23-4)
Wednesday February 27
University Arena – Albuquerque, NM
Moneyline: No ML currently listed at TOPBet
Spread: New Mexico -5
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San Diego State
They have won their last two games but 4 of their 5 losses have been on the road in the MWC. Proving you can win on the road also helps with seeding.
You could argue that the reason the Aztecs haven’t lived up to preseason expectations is too much of guard Jamaal Franklin and not enough of everybody else. Franklin leads the team in scoring, rebounding, assists and steal – not bad for a guy who is 6’5” and not a point guard.
They just need someone other than fellow backcourt mate Chase Tapley to step forward. Franklin is special but he just can’t do it all by himself.
The Aztecs have been a solid bet so far this season – 12-9-1. This is a nice situation because they have only been the underdog 4 times this season going 3-1-1 (3-0 ATS as a road underdog).
Given the way New Mexico plays this will could be a low scoring game which also favours dogs, especially with a special player like Franklin.
New Mexico is a fantastic surprise at the top of the MWC this year. After winning at Colorado State they stand a full two games atop the Rams in the conference standings with only 4 more games to play.
Even more amazing is that this team has just 4 losses for the season in total. Their record against ranked opponents is 4-0 and if they win out they might be looking at a very high seeding for the big dance.
The amazing thing is that this team might not have reached its ceiling yet as their top three players are 2 juniors and a sophomore.
Those players would be the backcourt of Kendall Williams and Tony Snell and beastly center Alex Kirk. I like this team’s depth too with 8 players averaging more than 15 minutes a game.
They don’t overwhelm you with talent but they make you work and wear you down.
It was on the road but the last time these two teams played New Mexico scored just 34 points – that has to give you some pause. By comparison, in a record setting game at CSU Williams scored 46 all on his own.
What level will he and his team play at in this important rematch? Are they ready to once again rise to the occasion as they have done all season long?
Spread Pick: San Diego State +5
O/U Pick: Over
Score Prediction: New Mexico 70 – San Diego State 67