Round 2 – Wolfpack vs Aztecs CBB Handicapping Prediction
SDSU had won their last 6 games before falling to New Mexico in the Mountain West Conference finals and this season they were 3-1 facing ranked teams.
Venue/ Stadium: Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH
Time/Date: 12:40 PM EST Friday, March 16, 2012
NCAA Odds From: Bovada
Moneyline: NC State -130 / SDSU +110
Spread (ATS): NC State -2
N.C. State (11) vs San Diego St.(6) Preview
NC State ended the season well and narrowly lost to North Carolina in the ACC semis. The Wolfpack played a much tougher schedule facing 8 ranked teams this season.
In their last games of the season SDSU lost to New Mexico 68-59 and NC State lost to North Carolina 69-67.
This season SDSU is 16-14 ATS with an O/U record of 15-14-1 and NC State is 15-14-1 ATS with an O/U record of 18-12.
NC State can score ranking 51st in the nation in points per game and they will have to win with their offense since their D only ranks 206th in the nation in opponents points allowed.
One player the Aztecs really have to worry about is leading scorer and 2nd leading rebounder C.J. Leslie (14.6 ppg 7.5 rpg), who has been playing well shooting 18/25 in his last 2 games and in his last 5 games he is averaging 18.2 ppg. He and G Lorenzo Brown (12.7 ppg) give the Wolfpack a solid inside/outside duo that will be tough to stop since each player is playing well.
G Jamaal Franklin (17.2 ppg 7.9 rpg) and G Chase Tapley (15.7 ppg) lead a solid Aztecs backcourt and Tapley is a gunner that shot over 43% from beyond the 3-point arc this season and has averaged 20 ppg in his last 4 games. If the Wolfpack can play good perimeter defense and especially keep Tapley from bombing away from deep they will be in good shape.
Both teams are relatively even on the glass, but the Wolfpack have the edge and Franklin is the leading rebounder for the Aztecs and he is only 6’5″. He will need help from the frontcourt players keeping Richard Howell (10.7 ppg 9.3 rpg) and Leslie from dominating the paint and the glass.
In some betting trends for this Midwest Region 2nd round game NC State is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.
SDSU is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog, and they have an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Jason’s Pick: NC State is peaking and playing well and I think they will win this game, as their frontcourt is too strong. Take the Wolfpack to win and cover.