North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Duke Blue Devils | Free Pick (February 5)
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NC State 12-10 (7-11 ATS) vs Duke 20-2 (11-10 ATS)
Saturday February 5 – 6:00PM
Recent history: Duke won at NC State last month 92-78.
NC State vs. Duke Odds: Duke -19.5
Total: 152
Click here to view LIVE ATS Stats for this matchup —>
Last weekend I watched as NC State was thoroughly outplayed at UNC…and now they are visiting Duke so it could be ugly again. Some projected some improvement for them this season but once ACC play begun they have had trouble keeping up, even though the league isn’t what it used to be.
Freshman C.J. Leslie was highly touted but he is not giving them much effort right now making it hard to see his talent. There really isn’t a facet of their game that you have to account for and this game has the potential of being really ugly if the Blue Devils maintain their focus. NC State hasn’t been a moneymakers for investors either with a 7-11 ATS record. It didn’t take long for Vegas to realize that growth for the program is quite a ways off. Sorry Sidney. 
Despite the shocking loss last Saturday against St. Johns this is still a very good Duke team, possibly the best team in the country (Sorry Buckeye fans). The Dookies handled NC State easily earlier in the season and the only thing that worries me about this one is that next up on the schedule for Duke is North Carolina so they might be looking ahead a little…not enough to lose but maybe enough to not step on the Wolfpack’s throat on Saturday.
Duke has won 8 of last 10 in the series but is only 6-4 ATS in that string. They key thing in this one is the exact number you get as there might not be a ton of value on the Duke side in this one if it is really big.
FYI – Nolan Smith is making a Naismith run averaging 27 ppg in his last 3.
Betting Trends:
Wolfpack are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Wolfpack are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Wolfpack are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Blue Devils are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Blue Devils are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Free Wolfpack vs. Blue Devils Pick
You never want to bet against Duke at home because Cameron Indoor Stadium can be so hostile even for teams that have been there before. I don’t think there is great value here but if so it is probably on the Duke side, they could win this by 25.
Score prediction: Duke 81 – NC State 64
