Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Purdue Boilermakers | Free Pick (January 29)
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Minnesota 16-4 (10-10 ATS) vs Purdue 17-4 (11-7 ATS)
Saturday January 29 – 1:00PM
Recent history: Minnesota beat Purdue at home 70-67 two weeks ago.
Minnesota vs Purdue Odds Purdue -9
Total: 137.5
Click here to view LIVE ATS Stats for this matchup —>
Every year there are teams who surprise early then disappoint. Minnesota is definitely one of those as they are failing to live up to their early season promise. This team has a very good frontcourt with size and rebounding in spades but with the loss of guard Devoe Joseph and the injury to Al Nolen they are weak at the point guard position. In fact it appears that coach Tubby Smith is seeing if the Gophers can thrive with a lineup that doesn’t feature a traditional point guard at all, preferring to put his 5 best players on the floor.
With Minnesota’s size this makes for an intimidating approach but some matchups will test this style of play, especially teams that put a lot of pressure on the ball by ratcheting up the tempo…but nobody in the Big Ten features that style of play so they can probably get a way with it for a while even though it will be difficult for guard Blake Hoffarber to keep up with some of the speedy guards they will face. 
One of those kind of players is Purdue point guard Lewis Jackson, who is more critical to the Boilermakers chances than most realize. Forward Jajuan Johnson is playing superbly and E’Twaun Moore is an excellent sidekick but it is Jackson who can really makes this team go. When he is playing at a high level he can make Purdue fans think Robbie Hummel who.
Purdue needs a big time rebound game after getting humiliated by Ohio State on the road earlier in the week. That game was over before it started and this revenge contest against Minnesota won’t be easy either for a team that was cruising along until a recent stretch where they have lost 3 of 5. With Johnson and Moore Purdue have a fantastic duo but they sometimes struggle to get much out of the rest of the squad (which is why Jackson is so key) putting a lot of pressure on their key seniors.
Johnson has certainly stepped up but Moore is in a big shooting funk of late.
When he is on this team can still compete with pretty much anybody in the country.
Betting Trends:
Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Boilermakers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Boilermakers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Free Gophers vs Boilermakers Pick
I expect Purdue to rebound at home but Minnesota isn’t a great matchup for them with all of that size up front. They need Moore to have a great game and I think he is due. This one will be close most of the way but the Gophers lack of depth at guard will show up late.
Score prediction: Purdue 71 – Minnesota 67
