March Madness Trends – crucial first-round factors
March Madness trends: important history lessons to follow
First-round success is crucial to your bracket
Look for teams that are being slighted
No. 5 seeds are vulnerable in the first round
After Selection Sunday passes and March Madness odds roll around, everyone is going to be examining their bracket and racing to their internet sportsbook. Regardless of how you prepare for betting sports—whether its brackets, props or spreads—rest assured that the first round of the tournament in the key to success, and that’s where March Madness trends come into play.
If your flavor is brackets, then a good first round gets you in position for a good tournament run with a successful bracket. If you’re an online sports betting fan, then a good first round puts some coin in your bank and you get to play from ahead in the tournament. When you’re reviewing the first round, here are a few pointers to keep in mind:
For starters, look for teams that the public believes are ranked lower than expected. For example, a team that was expecting to be a No. 2 seed, who was seeded at No. 4, might be slighted—they they aren’t getting respect.
Another important factor in the first round for March Madness odds is know your teams. Often times because you have a high seed versus a low seed, or a brand name versus a no-name, the public will magnetize to the favorite. Get to know your mid-majors and your small conference winners because they are often the biggest surprises in the tournament – not just in the first round.
Traditionally, the top four seeds in the tournament perform very well in the first round. Look at these March Madness trends: the No. 1 seed has never lost to a No. 16 seed, the No. 2 seeds win 96% of the time, the No. 3 seeds win 84% of the time and the No. 4 seeds win 82% of the time.
The first big drop-off is the No. 5 seeds, which only beat the No. 12 seeds 67% of the time. It’s obviously not implying that No. 12 seeds are your best bet from now on, but the percentages to go give you an indication that No. 5 seeds are fairly vulnerable in the first round even though there is a seven-spot seeding difference between them and their opponent.
At the same time, it goes to show you that you probably shouldn’t have many upsets about the seeds above No. 5 because the percentages are not in your favor.
For betting purposes, the No. 16 seeds don’t often play close games with No. 1 seeds. Only 11 seeds have lost within 10 points of the No. 1 seed, so make sure you are getting lots of points with your big underdog.
Evaluating March Madness lines and then watching the games play out as you bet them is among the most exciting events in sports all year round. Just make sure you make the right moves in the first round.
For more March Madness trends, analysis and daily articles, visit BetOnline.com’s Betting Edge.
