Betting on March Madness?
Well we are down to the final weekend now with just 4 teams remaining. If I had to I would say there are only a couple of surprises at the Final Four. [ad-4468020]
I say a couple because obviously we can’t be surprised to see the Gators here and I think the same goes for Kentucky as most had them in their Top 5 preseason, no matter how the regular season shook out.
That leaves UConn and Wisconsin, who are hardly out of nowhere Cinderella types. The Badgers may be the biggest surprise of all despite their #2 seeding. The stats say one thing but when it comes to Wisconsin I think sometimes we don’t want to believe it. I guess we will see.
Odds to win Final 4
Florida Gators – 10/11
As the top seed in the Tournament the Gators are the prohibitive favourites so the odds are not all that great. However, given the way they can dominate it is not necessarily a bad bet to back Florida for the championship even at this late stage.
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The interesting things is that for them to win it they have to knock off at least one, and possibly both of the teams that tripped them up during the regular season – Connecticut and Wisconsin. They are obviously familiar with their other potential opponent too, Kentucky, who they narrowly beat in the SEC title game a few weeks back. No Matter who they play there is going to be a lot of recent history to review.
Wisconsin Badgers – 13/4
The Badgers are always respected but seldom feared. They are a system team but the system has changed this season as they are scoring more and playing at a faster pace than ever before.
However, in beating Arizona they kind of reverted to their old form, winning a low scoring battle. Odds are they will try and do the same if they are going to make a run to the championship from here.
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Even though they are blesseed with good shooters I do not think they want to get into a running match with Kentucky and ttheir win against the Gators was a game in their 50s. The question is which team will they be and will it be enough. Good value considering they beat Florida during the regular season.
Kentucky Wildcats – 5/2
I am sure someone wiser than me is comparing these odds to what you could have got at the beginning of the year. For me I think you have to like their chances given they have got to this point but I wouldn’t back the Wildcats. Odds are the Gators will make to the championship game which will mean another date with Florida, a team I think they are still not ready to beat.
If you like the Wildcats over the Badgers I would go game by game because I think you might get a better payoff if they were to win the title over UF as an underdog than the 5/2 you can get right now (with the win on Saturday too). Plus you could hedge a little and bet bigger against Wisconsin, a matchup I really like.
Connecticut Huskies – 7/1
Similar to Kentucky above I would strategize if I was going to bet on the Huskies to win it all. They are certainly capable of doing so but they are also the only team that would likely be an good value underdog for both games.
I documented some of the reasons they might come through in a piece earlier week and the jist of it is they are a really good team with a really great lead guard who makes them go.
Had they not beaten Florida during the season their semi-final game would have a totally different feel but because they did it is easier to make the argument. I will probably play them with the points to get the extra cushion than roll that right into the Championship game upon victory.
A little less value than this 7/1 but a much better chance of a winning payoff too.
