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Free Pick: Gonzaga vs. St. Mary’s CBB Lines & Handicapping Preview

NCAAB: Bulldogs vs Gaels Predictions

College basketball betting action sees the Gonzaga Bulldogs taking on the St. Mary’s Gaels on Saturday February 21 at the McKeon Pavillion in Moraga, California.  Cappers Picks provides free NCAAB handicapping tips all season long.

This is probably the most likely spot that Gonzaga will fall, if they do, during WCC play. This is a fun series.

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#3 Gonzaga Bulldogs (27-1) vs. St. Mary’s Gaels (20-6)
Saturday February 21
10:00PM
McKeon Pavillion – Moraga, CA
ESPN2
NCAAB Betting Lines: Gonzaga -8
NCAAB Betting Total:  n/a
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Gonzaga

The Zags are cruising through the WCC with the only question surrounding the team being whether they will get a #1 seed or whether the leagues holds them back. This game at St. Mary’s can probably do more harm than good unless they absolutely spank the Gaels, like they did at home, winning by 21 points a month ago.

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Even though Gonzaga keeps winning they have not been covering numbers on the road regularly and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Sometimes when teams dominate it is hard to find value.

In the Zags last game Kyle Wiltjer exploded for 45 points against Pacific. He has been a steady scoring force all season long but the true strength of this team is that they do not rely on any one player and can score in so many ways.

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The last time these two program met it was Kevin Pangos who led Gonzaga with 14 points. Even though he has sacrificed some stats this season he is still their most important player.

St. Mary’s

The Gaels have already notched 20 wins this season and are currently in second place in the WCC. However, but their best victory out of conference is against Creighton and within BYU. A victory here would satisfy doubters so there should be some intensity for this game as their best last chance to make a statement. The Gaels are a good team but nothing stands out about them right now. Splitting with BYU on the season did not do them any favours in terms of improving their resume.

For the Gaels to bring down the WCC giant they need a great game from their own Brad Waldow. Waldow is second in scoring and third in rebounding in WCC play and led the team in both categories in the loss to the Zags earlier in the season. That night they only made 2 of 15 three point shots, a number they will have to improve on if they want to keep up Gonzaga. They have the shooters.

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Emmett Naar is making better than 50% from three in WCC play (he missed all of his attempts in the loss).

NCAAB Handicapping Trends:

  • Over is 7-2 in GONZ last 9 Sat. games.
  • SMC are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Sat. games.
  • SMC are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
  • SMC are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. West Coast.
  • Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in St. Mary’s.

NCAAB Prediction:  Gonzaga -8

NCAAB Score prediction:  Gonzaga 71 – St. Mary’s 61

Even though they have not been a great bet at home I like the Zags in this spot.

St. Mary’s just doesn’t have the horses to keep up. This is actually pretty good value on Gonzaga, which has been tough to find.

Check out our Updated College Basketball Betting Odds.

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By The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.