March Madness Betting – First-Round Predictions/Picks
When it comes to evaluating March Madness odds and filling out your bracket, the first two rounds are easily the most important ones. If you can survive the first weekend, you’re in good shape the rest of the way. Fail in the first two rounds and you might as well tear your bracket up.
This is your one-stop shop for the first two rounds of March Madness betting.
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1st Round – Midwest Region
No. 1 Louisville vs No. 16 Morehead State
Sportsbook odds: No Line
Louisville is the top overall seed – Morehead State won the play-in game and is essentially the lowest No. 16 seed. No 16 seed has ever toppled a No. 1 seed and this won’t be the case.
Pick: Louisville
No. 8 Ohio State vs No. 9 Siena
Sportsbook odds: Ohio State -3
Siena, the team that stunned Vanderbilt in their opening round 13-4 matchup last season, now enters the Tournament with its highest seeding ever. But it’ll face off with Ohio State in Dayton, Ohio, which isn’t exactly a neutral site. Siena is good team, though and won 26 games this year. It won’t be intimidated.
Pick: Siena
No. 5 Utah vs No. 12 Arizona
Sportsbook odds: PICK
All we’ve heard all week long is: “How did the Arizona Wildcats make the Tournament?”
But now that they are in, how surprised would you be if they won a round or two? Expect them to be loosey-goosey since they’ll feel like they are playing with the house’s money.
Pick: Arizona
No. 4 Wake Forest vs No. 13 Cleveland State
Sportsbook odds: Wake Forest -7.5
Cleveland State probably wouldn’t have been in the Tournament had they failed to knock off Butler in the Horizon League Championship Game while Wake Forest comes into the Tournament under the radar as a four seed, after previously being ranked as high as No. 1 in the AP Top 25 poll. The Demon Deacons will have their hands full but they will advance.
Pick: Wake Forest
No. 6 West Virginia vs No. 11 Dayton
Sportsbook odds: West Virginia -8.5
Dayton was a sexy sleeper early on in the college basketball season as it toppled Marquette but the magic has worn off. It finished the season with four losses in its last seven games and some people would say it was squarely on the bubble. West Virginia is a sleeper.
Pick: West Virginia
No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks vs No. 14 North Dakota State
Sportsbook odds: Kansas -10
The Jayhawks took an early exit in the Big 12 Tournament as all those skeptics who expected Kansas to be a weak this year finally crawled back out of the woodwork. The Jayhawks do look vulnerable, but that won’t get exposed in the first round.
Pick: Kansas
No. 7 Boston College vs No. 10 USC
Sportsbook odds: USC -2.5
Tim Floyd’s USC is back in the Tournament and it will have an interesting first round matchup against Boston College. The Eagles can be dangerous if Tyrese Rice goes off but one sneaky note about the Trojans is that their guards have a lot of size. Look for that to be the difference in this one.
Pick: USC
No. 2 Michigan State vs No. 15 Robert Morris
Sportsbook odds: Michigan State -16.5
The Spartans will be happy to break away from their Big 10 Conference and play someone who isn’t so familiar with them. Expect them to run wild on Robert Morris and more importantly, pound it inside. Robert Morris doesn’t have any players taller than 6’8″, which figures to be a problem.
Pick: Michigan State
1st Round – West Region
No. 1 Connecticut vs No. 16 Chattanooga
Sportsbook odds: UConn -20
The Chattanooga Mocs will be playing in their 10th NCAA Tournament, which is more than anyone else in the heralded Southern Conference, but that won’t mean anything whatsoever against Connecticut.
Pick: UConn
No. 8 BYU vs No. 9 Texas A&M
Sportsbook odds: BYU -2
The Cougars are just 7-16 overall in the first round of March Madness and have made six consecutive first round exits. They get a rematch with Texas A&M from last year’s first round, which A&M won. History has a tendency of repeating itself.
Pick: Texas A&M
No. 5 Purdue vs No. 12 Northern Iowa
Sportsbook odds: Purdue -8
The Boilermakers are in a dangerous 5-12 matchup but they are actually underrated. Robbie Hummel is finally healthy, which means Purdue is ready to make a run. They flashed their potential, winning the Big 10 Tournament outright. They are hot right now and will roll through this matchup.
Pick: Purdue
No. 4 Washington vs No. 13 Mississippi State
Sportsbook odds: Washington -5.5
Mississippi State has no business being in the Tournament while not many pundits put faith in Washington, even as a No. 4 seed. Look for the Huskies to take care of business against a subpar SEC team but don’t expect a deep run.
Pick: Washington
No. 6 Marquette vs No. 11 Utah State
Sportsbook odds: Marquette -4.5
Since Marquette lost star guard and team captain Dominic James for the season, it has been free-falling. It lost five of its last six games and is ripe for the picking.
Pick: Utah State
No. 3 Missouri vs No. 14 Cornell
Sportsbook odds: Missouri -13
Missouri is a very solid defensive team and Cornell will probably crack under the pressure defense. The Tigers are deeper than Cornell and will force enough turnovers to make some easy baskets and keep Cornell at a distance in the first round.
Pick: Missouri
No. 7 California vs No. 10 Maryland
Sportsbook odds: California -1
The Cal Golden Bears rely far too much on their outside shots to be a serious contender in March Madness. Gary Williams is a smart head coach and his Maryland team will force Cal to make adjustments. If they aren’t able to, Maryland will win.
Pick: Maryland
No. 2 Memphis vs No. 15 CS Northridge
Sportsbook odds: Memphis -20
Not only are the Memphis Tigers significantly superior in this matchup, they are also coming in with a chip on their shoulder. They have the longest active winning streak in the nation and won their conference in dazzling style, but that still didn’t earn them a No. 1 seed. Look for this to be a statement game for them.
Pick: Memphis
1st Round – East Region
No. 1 Pittsburgh vs No. 16. East Tennessee State
Sportsbook odds: Pittsburgh -19.5
ETSU is a tricky matchup for Pittsburgh but it’s unlikely that Pitt will fall to them. ETSU would need a minor miracle. That being said, it knows what it has to do – no No. 16 seed has ever come closer to upsetting a No. 1 than ETSU as it lost 72-71 to No. 1 Oklahoma in 1989.
Pick: Pittsburgh
No. 8 Oklahoma State vs No. 9 Tennessee
Sportsbook odds: Tennessee -1.5
Oklahoma State is more here on what it did in the Big 12 Tournament than anything else while Tennessee is also here because of what it did – or didn’t do – in its conference Tournament. This has been a disappointing season for Tennessee and the Volunteers are still smarting from their strange loss to Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament Championship Game.
Pick: Oklahoma State
No. 5 Florida State vs No. 12 Wisconsin
Sportsbook odds: Florida State -2.5
The difference in this contest should be experience. Florida State had a far better season but it hasn’t been here since 1998, which was the last season that Wisconsin didn’t make the Tournament. Wisconsin has far more experience and that will come in handy.
Pick: Wisconsin
No. 4 Xavier vs No. 13 Portland State
Sportsbook odds: Xavier -10.5
There is some upset potential here as Xavier finished the season with a very disheartening 5-4 stretch. Portland State will probably push its limits a little bit but Xavier knows the underdog role since it’s played it so many times and won’t look past this team.
Pick: Xavier
No. 6 UCLA vs No. 11 VCU
Sportsbook odds: UCLA -7
Yes, yes, we all know Eric Maynor and the shot he hit against Duke. The magic is gone now and, although this UCLA team is also ripe for the picking when you factor in Darren Collison’s injury and the amount of freshmen they rely on, this won’t be where the Bruins get picked.
Pick: UCLA
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No. 3 Villanova vs No. 14 American
Sportsbook odds: Villanova -16.5
Villanova is another high seed that is very underrated. All the attention in the Big East is focused on Louisville, Pittsburgh and UConn, but Villanova is just as good as any of those teams (maybe a small step behind). American has won 13 straight games, though, and has forgotten what it’s like to lose. Villanova will have to bring its A-game to remind them.
Pick: Villanova
No. 7 Texas vs No. 10 Minnesota
Sportsbook odds: Texas -4
Texas has the parts with guys like A.J. Abrams and Dexter Pittman but the Longhorns are wildly inconsistent. Minnesota is a good story as Tubby Smith has rebuilt the program but it has lost five of their last eight games. If they can clear their heads and play like the team that started 16-1, they will advance.
Pick: Minnesota
No. 2 Duke vs No. 15 Binghampton
Sportsbook odds: -22
Congratulations on making your first Tournament appearance, Binghampton. Unfortunately, you are facing a Duke squad that has been upset early on in the Tournament recently so they’ll be focused. Good luck.
Pick: Duke
NCAA Tournament Free Round 1 Picks >>
1st Round – South Region
No. 1 North Carolina vs No 16. Radford
Sportsbook odds: North Carolina -26
Keep an eye on whether ACC Player of the Year Ty Lawson plays in this game but even if he doesn’t, don’t worry too much. Radford hasn’t won a non-conference game against a Div-I school this season.
Pick: UNC
No. 8 LSU vs No. 9 Butler
Sportsbook odds: LSU -2.5
LSU is probably the best team in the SEC, but the SEC is a very weak conference this year. Meanwhile, Butler was ranked as high as No. 11 in the AP Top 25, is somehow a lower seed and an underdog to LSU. This matchup has been pegged all wrong. Butler is the better team.
Pick: Butler
No. 5 Illinois vs No. 12 Western Kentucky
Sportsbook odds: Illinois -4.5
This is another matchup where experience is going to be crucial. Illinois is obviously the better team but Western Kentucky has far more experience. No one on the Fighting Illini has virtually any tournament experience while Western Kentucky went to the Sweet Sixteen last year.
Pick: Western Kentucky
No. 4 Gonzaga vs No. 13 Akron
Sportsbook odds: Gonzaga -12.5
Gonzaga is heavily overrated as a No. 4 seed and definitely won’t be dancing very long given its track record outside of the West Coast Conference, but Akron doesn’t quite have enough to get by in this matchup. It would have to be a perfect storm.
Pick: Gonzaga
No. 6 Arizona State vs No. 11 Temple
Sportsbook odds: Arizona State -5
The Temple Owls probably would have been left out of the Tournament if it was up to the committee but by winning the Atlantic 10 crown, they received an automatic bid. But the Owls might still be underrated as they have a pretty good, complete squad with a star in Dionte Christmas. This matchup has upset potential.
Pick: Temple
No. 3 Syracuse vs No. 14 Stephen F. Austin
Sportsbook odds: Syracuse -12
Some people seem to be under the impression that the Orange are fatigued after playing so much overtime last week in the Big East Tournament. The reality is that few teams are sharper right now than the Orange and now that they have had a few days to recuperate, they should make quick work of Stephen F. Austin.
Pick: Syracuse
No. 7 Clemson vs No. 10 Michigan
Sportsbook odds: Clemson -5.5
Michigan is in the Tournament for the first time in a long time and for them, their season has already been a success. Clemson has some higher goals this year and that should be evident on the court in this matchup.
Pick: Clemson
No. 2 Oklahoma vs No. 15 Morgan State
Sportsbook odds: Oklahoma -16.5
The Oklahoma Sooners could have made a case to be a No. 1 seed but they have stumbled down the stretch of the season, including an early loss to rival Oklahoma City in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament. None of that will be relevant in this matchup.
Pick: Oklahoma
Check out part two of our first weekend March Madness betting preview, where we take a look at the potential second-round games.
CHECK OUT MORE OF OUR EXPERTS PICKS FOR ROUND 1 GAMES —->
