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NCAAB Handicapping: Mississippi St. vs. LSU (Jan. 21)

The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the LSU Tigers will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Oddsmakers currently have the Tigers listed as 7-point favorite….

Battle in the Bayou – Mississippi State at LSU

BetUS NCAA Betting Odds: LSU -5.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* MSU has won its last five games SU
* MSU has covered its last five games * MSU has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* LSU has won six of its last seven games SU
* LSU has played five of its last eight games OVER the total
* LSU has won its last 16 home games SU
* LSU has played five of its last seven home games OVER the total

Also…

* MSU has won the last four meetings SU
* MSU has covered four of the last five meetings
* Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
* MSU has covered four of the last five meetings as the road team
* Four of the last five meetings in Baton Rouge have gone UNDER the total
* MSU has had the rebounding edge in five of the last seven meetings
* MSU has made more three-pointers in each of the last five meetings

Mississippi State is a hot team in the Southeastern Conference and certainly will be a prime contender for the league title if they continue to play as they have. Currently the Bulldogs are on a five-game winning streak, and the teams they have beaten – Houston, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Alabama and Vanderbilt – are all very respectable squads.

Rick Stansbury has done some juggling of his lineup, going with four guards in order to improve quickness and create a few matchup problems. Of course, he could afford to do something like that because Jarvis Varnado can make up for a lot of mistakes on defense. Varnado is the leading shot-blocker in the country, averaging a phenomenal 5.2 per game, and he has the ability to alter everything the opposing team does when they get within 6-8 feet of the basket.

What’s great about Varnado is that he has improved himself on the offensive end too. He is the Bulldogs’ leading scorer (12.6 ppg) on 61.5% shooting, and he gives his team a true inside-outside attack going. Mississippi State has been raining threes on the opposition; in fact, over the last five games they have made 54 shots from beyond the arc.

As long as this formula is working, Stansbury is going to stick with it. Naturally, there is some added pressure on Varnado, and MSU gives up something on the glass because he has less support. LSU is a robust +12 on the boards when it plays in Baton Rouge (they are +7.6 overall), and the Tigers have allowed less than 30% shooting from beyond the arc in eight games this year.

Garrett Temple can blanket one of the Mississippi State guards, and with Marcus Thornton, they form a perfectly capable defensive backcourt. Tasmin Mitchell, who has had to rebound from an injury that limited him to three games last season, is coming on strong, as he’s averaged 20 points over his last six games. Last time out, the Tigers rolled over Ole Miss (83-51) as they committed just five turnovers and choked the Rebels beyond the three-point line (only 4-for-21).

This matchup probably isn’t too bad for Trent Johnson’s team. We’ll lay the points with LSU, the 5.5-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA basketball betting odds.

Our PLAY: LSU -5.5 **

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"