NCAA Season Preview: Duke Blue Devils
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Let’s take a look at the numbers:
2009/2010 Season Preview: Duke Blue Devils Predictions (ACC)
- Bodog.com Betting Odds – Duke Odds To Win 2009/10 National Championship – 20/1
With all the negativity about Duke coming into this season you would think they were NIT or CBIT bound. Instead most media outlets peg them as a top 15 team, not quite in the league of UNC or Kansas but still better than over 300 teams across the nation. It is awfully tough to live up to such high standards…and it doesn’t help that UNC is rockin’ these days.
Duke is led by a combo of players that any team in the country would welcome. Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler are typical Dookies. Not the most athletic but skilled and confident, they will take all the big shots for Duke this year. Scheyer is going to try and run the point due to a lack of guards on the roster and Singler is finally being released from the paint now that Duke has an influx of bigs. Now that he doesn’t have to bang all night long he should be able to increase his offense, which the team will need.
For a top team this squad has little margin for error. They essentially have only three guards on the roster and their frontcourt players other than Singler have not proven much yet. For maybe the first time ever Coach K will be playing a lot of freshmen at crunch time. It will be interesting to see how they stand up to the pressures of playing in an ACC with several top teams. Duke will win their fair share but will not challenge for the conference crown.
Surprising Stat
Underperformed at the wickets last year. Won 30 games but only 16-18-2 ATS. The worst record among the ten teams that finished with 30 victories or more.
Strengths
The duo of Singler and Scheyer is among the best in the country. They both can shoot and score but their lack of elite athleticism means they can be limited by teams that have strong defensive discipline. They enjoy one of the best home court advantages at Cameron and can still intimidate opponents with the name on the front of the Jersey. You want to knock them out early because they can definitely beat you late in the game by getting to the line and making free throws.
Weaknesses
They have no backcourt depth which means they are going to have problems if anyone gets into foul trouble. This could also mean more zone defense which is not what Coach K prefers, he wants to harass you into turnovers. Lord help them if any of their guards are having an off night. There is no one on the bench they can throw in to get a spark.
Additions
Mason Plumlee – A highly skilled big to battle UNC with.
Ryan Kelly – Another big but this one can really shoot it.
Andre Dawkins – Coach K convinced him to come a year early because they were desperate for Gs. They need him to be steady and good.
Subtractions
Gerald Henderson – I was never a fan but he was a highly productive player.
Greg Paulus – Lost his starting spot last year but was emotional leader.
Elliot Williams – Replaced Paulus but then bolted to Memphis.
David McClure – Back of the rotation guy.
Key Players
Kyle Singler – Scoring should go up now that he is spending more time on the wing.
Jon Scheyer – If he can be a reliable point then this team will be better than expected.
Mason Plumlee – They need him to be among top bigs in conference. Double-Doubles please.
Post Season
Will make the field of 64 without breaking too much of a sweat but everything after is a mystery. If they faced a team with great guards they could be out early or they could ride their horses as far as the Sweet Sixteen.
Projected wins
24-26
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2 replies on “Duke 2009 NCAA Basketball Future Lines”
While this isn’t one of Coach K’s most talented teams, but I do like their chances to win the ACC and position themselves for a bit of a run in the tournament.
The thing that bothers me is the depth. Everyone knows they are shallow in the backcourt and will challenge their guards. The good teams will have a real advantage and even not so good ones will be able to hang with them longer than normal.