Golden State Warriors Season Preview – NBA Predictions
Golden State has been floundering as a franchise for a while. Last year was disappointing especially down the stretch as they got nothing out of their trade of top scorer Monta Ellis.
Golden State Warriors
Western Conference
2011-12 Record: 23-43
Odds to win title: 100 to 1
Odds to win conference: 60 to 1 from Bovada
Key losses:
Dorrell Wright – The sweet shooting small forward was a bigger part of last year’s team than people realized – I guess that happens when you are relegated to Golden State.
Top Newcomers:
Harrison Barnes – The North Carolina product was a top pick but never satisfied critics in college. He could be a big time scorer in the league if he is motivated. The system should allow for immediate production.
Carl Landry – Unsung undersized power forward who just gives max effort and plays winning basketball. Festus Ezeli – Another rookie whose game is a little raw offensively but is a big athletic body that should help on defense and rebounding.
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Top Players:
David Lee – Was underappreciated in New York and now off the radar in Golden State. It is too bad because his unflashy game is one of the most productive and consistent of any power forward in the league.
Stephon Curry – Combo guard can score but is still too much of a tweener a few years into his career.
He has to be healthy or this team is toast.
Andrew Bogut – Came over in a big trade last year but made no impact due to injury. Has proven he can be an effective offensive player with a bit of edge to him.
The key returning piece – Andrew Bogut – was hurt. This made the Warriors a lame duck at the end of last season and creates some massive question marks heading into this one.
The swap was a major personnel and probably style change and we haven’t seen if it works yet.
Lots of pundits see a rise from Golden State this year, perhaps all the way into the playoffs. I am not completely sold although I do think they can be in the mix with several teams in the West in that final tier. One of the things I wonder if you can really play consistent winning basketball with Steph Curry logging heavy minutes at point guard.
He is not a bad player but he gets exposed on defense and isn’t good enough as a scorer or leader to overcome. [ad-6571516]
Strengths
When it is completely healthy I really like their front line. They have a good combination of length and activity with Bogut, Andres Biedrins and some young guys. David Lee is a stat stuffer who improved his numbers his second year on the coast. Throw in Harrison Barnes and they could be have one of the most productive front lines in the West.
Weaknesses
While the frontcourt can be very good the backcourt is super thin. I have already expressed my thoughts on Curry and his pairing with shooter Klay Thompson hardly creates a backcourt to fear. The backups are Jarret Jack and Brandon Rush. Rush hasn’t proven to be more than a bit NBA player yet and there is a reason Jack is on a new team almost every season.
Prediction
The Warriors were tied for the best record in the Western Conference in the preseason. We know that doesn’t mean anything as the team everyone thinks might win it all this year – the Lakers – didn’t win a single game. Still it is a positive for relatively young team looking to integrate new faces to get off to a solid start. There is no doubt this team should improve but in the tough Western Conference sometimes that is not reflected in wins and losses. Third place in the Pacific is a possibility with a chance of grabbing one of the final playoff spots.
Situations to look for…
Golden State was a solid 36-30 ATS last season and super profitable in some key situations that are likely to occur again. They were 30-21 ATS as an underdog and 10-5 against the number within their division. Last year’s compressed schedule created a lot of back to back opportunities and the Warriors were a fantastic 14-5 in those contests.
Probably not as as many this year but with the roster they have they should continue to thrive in those and the other situations listed.
