Miami – Ford EcoBoost 400 Odds
This season’s NASCAR Sprint Cup title comes down to just 400 laps around the Homestead-Miami Speedway this Sunday afternoon in the running of the Ford EcoBoost 400.
NASCAR Sprint Cup Ford EcoBoost 400 Preview and Prediction
Race: Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
Date: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2013
Time: 3 p.m. (ET)
Broadcast: ESPN
Odds By Bovada
The final event of this season’s Sprint Cup series is set to get underway at 3 p.m. and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
Kevin Harvick kept his already remote title hopes alive with last week’s victory at Phoenix, but Jimmie Johnson all but sealed his six career Sprint Cup title with a third-place run in that race.
The only other Chase driver with a mathematical shot at winning the Cup is Matt Kenseth and he finished a disastrous 23rd last week to fall 28 points off the pace.
The following is a closer look at our favorite, contender, and longshot picks for Sunday’s race with odds provided by Bovada.
The Favorite (odd of less than 10/1)
Given that Matt Kenseth needs to win on Sunday and hope that Johnson turns into a wall early in the race to win this year’s title, it is easy to see why he has been opened as a +350 favorite to claim the checkered flag at Homestead.
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The No. 20 car still has the most Sprint Cup wins this season at seven, which would be the tie-breaker if there is a tie in total points.
While this may add some value to these odds, Kenseth’s past performance at this track does not. He has an average finishing position of 17.6 at Homestead and he has placed outside the top five in four of his last five trips around this track.
The Contender (odds from 10/1 to 19/1)
All Jimmie Johnson has to do to claim this season’s Sprint Cup title is finish better than 23rd in this race. The Oddsmakers assume that the No. 48 car will be more concerned with playing it safe as opposed to trying to win on Sunday so they set the odds at +1500.
While that may be the case, anytime you can get longer odds on the best driver on the track it is worth a small play no matter what the circumstances are.
Johnson has not raced all that well at Homestead over the course of his entire career, but during his run to five-straight Sprint Cup titles from 2006 to 2010, he had an average finishing position here of 7.6.
The Longshot (odds 20/1 or greater)
Besides Johnson, Kenseth and Harvick, the rest of the top drivers in Sunday’s field are racing for Homestead’s prize money and one last shot at a Sprint Cup victory for their 2013 resume.
When it comes to drivers with odds of +2000 or greater, their cars will basically be in the way on Sunday so we would not recommend a play on a longshot for this race.
If you feel compelled to make a play anyway, then take a look at Clint Bowyer or Kurt Busch +2000. These are probably the two best drivers at these longer odds so they always have an outside shot at winning when they get behind the wheel.
Odds from Bovada
MATT KENSETH 7-2
KYLE BUSCH 5-1
KASEY KAHNE 7-1
KEVIN HARVICK 7-1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 8-1
DENNY HAMLIN 12-1
JEFF GORDON 12-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 12-1
JOEY LOGANO 12-1
JIMMIE JOHNSON 15-1
CARL EDWARDS 18-1
KURT BUSCH 20-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 20-1
CLINT BOWYER 20-1
GREG BIFFLE 30-1
RYAN NEWMAN 30-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 100-1
JUAN MONTOYA 100-1
JEFF BURTON 200-1
MARK MARTIN 200-1
PAUL MENARD 200-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 200-1
ELLIOTT SADLER 300-1
ARIC ALMIROLA 300-1
MARCOS AMBROSE 300-1
TREVOR BAYNE 500-1
AJ ALLMENDINGER 500-1
KYLE LARSON 500-1
DANICA PATRICK 1000-1
FIELD 200-1
