Texas – AAA Texas 500 Predictions
This Sunday’s running of the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway marks the first of three final races in the Chase for NASCAR’s 2013 Sprint Cup title. This race is set to get underway at 3 p.m. and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.
NASCAR Sprint Cup AAA Texas 500 Preview and Prediction
Race: AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, Nov. 3, 2013
Time: 3 p.m. (ET)
Broadcast: ESPN
Odds By Bovada
Veteran NASCAR driver Jeff Gordon not only notched his first Sprint Cup victory of the year last week at Martinsville, he also kept his slim title chances alive with a jump to third-place in the standings.
Matt Kenseth finished second to pull into a tie for the lead with Jimmie Johnson in the current standings and Clint Bowyer finished third.
The following is a closer look at our favorite, contender, and longshot picks for Sunday’s race with odds provided by Sportsbook.
The Favorite (odd of less than 10/1)
Heading into last week’s race Matt Kenseth found himself four points out of the lead in the Sprint Cup standings in what has turned into a back and forth affair with Johnson since the start of the Chase.
The No. 20 car got a quick start out of the gate with victories in the first two races of this 10-race playoff to the title and the team holds the tie-breaker over the No. 48 car with seven point-race victories this season to the rival team’s five wins.
Kenseth comes into this race at +400 odds to widen that gap with another checkered flag this Sunday.
He adds some solid value to these odds given that he has seven top-five finishes in his last nine races at Texas dating back to the 2009 season. He also has two previous point-race victories this track and an average finishing position of 8.5.
The Contender (odds from 10/1 to 19/1)
While the Chase to the title is basically down to a two-driver show, do not tell that to Kevin Harvick. [ad-8757089]
He still has a mathematical chance to win the title with 2,266 total points, which is 28 points out of the lead. The No. 29 car would probably have to win the final three races starting with this Sunday as a +1200 contender.
The team already has one victory in the Chase with a first-place finish at Kansas to go along with checkered flags in races at Charlotte and Richmond over the course of the entire season.
The one drain on Harvick’s odds for this race is the fact that he has never won a Sprint Cup event on this track and he has an average finishing position of 12.5 at Texas.
The Longshot (odds 20/1 or greater)
Playing longshots at this time of the Sprint Cup season is probably just an unnecessary drain on the bankroll, but we have seen it happen a couple of times in this year’s Chase.
Looking at the current odds for a couple of the longer plays on the board, the one name that does jump out is Dale Earnhardt Jr. at +2000.
He is actually having one of his better runs in the Chase and while he is out of the title picture, he does have a second-place finish at both Dover and Talladega in the first seven races of the Chase.
The No. 88 car finished 29th in the first race at Texas this season, but Earnhardt has posted a top-10 finish in five of his previous six trips around this track in a Sprint Cup race.
Odds from Bovada
JIMMIE JOHNSON 7-2
MATT KENSETH 4-1
KYLE BUSCH 5-1
KASEY KAHNE 8-1
JEFF GORDON 8-1
KEVIN HARAVICK 12-1
BRAD KESELOWSKI 12-1
CLINT BOWYER 18-1
DENNY HAMLIN 20-1
KURT BUSCH 20-1
MARTIN TRUEX JR 20-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 20-1
CARL EDWARDS 20-1
JOEY LOGANO 20-1
GREG BIFFLE 20-1
RYAN NEWMAN 35-1
JAMIE McMURRAY 60-1
JUAN MONTOYA 75-1
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 100-1
JEFF BURTON 200-1
PAUL MENARD 200-1
MARK MARTIN 300-1
ELLIOTT SADLER 300-1
ARIC ALMIROLA 300-1
MARCOS AMBROSE 300-1
TREVOR BAYNE 500-1
KYLE LARSON 500-1
DANICA PATRICK 1000-1
BOBBY LABONTE 2000-1
FIELD 500-1
Odds To Win 2013 SPRINT CUP CHAMPIONSHIP
JIMMIE JOHNSON 5-7
MATT KENSETH 11-10
JEFF GORDON 12-1
KEVIN HARVICK 12-1
KYLE BUSCH 30-1
DALE EARNHARDT JR 200-1
CLINT BOWYER 200-1
GREG BIFFLE 200-1
CARL EDWARDS 500-1
KURT BUSCH 500-1
JOEY LOGANO 1000-1
