MLB Saturday Preview – San Diego vs Florida
Before baseball gambling fans turn their attention to other sports betting events this weekend, we have the Tuesday MLB game of the day pick for you. It’s time for our weekly baseball picks for online MLB betting action.
Season Record:
San Diego: 43-30 SU
Florida: 35-38 SU
Padres Try To Extend NL-West Lead Against Fish
MLB Betting – San Diego Padres @ Florida Marlins
Jon Garland (7-5) vs. Josh Johnson (8-2)
Garland vs. Marlins Hitting
Jon Garland has been a fantastic addition to the Padres top-ranked pitching staff. A veteran presence in a rotation full of young arms, Garland has provided stability and results on the first-place Padres. His 7-5 record and 3.26 ERA aren’t mind-boggling statistics, but in the majority of starts this season Garland has given his team a very good chance to win.
If there is a big knock on Garland this season it’s been his penchant to give up runs early. He usually is able to calm down after and pitch a solid game, but those early runs have come back to haunt his team once in a while. The Marlins have some pop in their offense and could very well jump on Garland early. It all depends on how the veteran right hander can rebound. If you’re betting, look for offensive studs like Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu to jump out on Garland early.
Johnson vs. Padres Hitting
Johnson has emerged this season as the best starter no one has heard of. Stuck in the baseball hell-hole that is South Florida, Johnson has put up unbelievable numbers. An 8-2 record with a 1.80 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. 12 of his last 13 outings have been ‘quality starts.’ In his last eight starts, Johnson has given up one or zero runs; no one else in the league has had a streak that long this year.
Against an offense like San Diego’s, there is a very good chance that streak will continue. The Padres hit well enough and are timely enough that they can win games, but once in a while they’ll get handcuffed by outstanding pitching, and that’s most likely going to happen in this game. Adrian Gonzalez is still the only viable threat the Padres have, and he’s going to see his fair share of walks in this game. Chase Headley, David Eckstein and Tony Gwynn have been hot as of late, but are still not good enough to really challenge a start pitcher like Johnson.
Bullpen Comparison
Those adept with MLB Betting know that the Padres own the best bullpen in the major leagues. They have the best combined ERA, by far, and lead all reliever units in strikeouts. The breakout star of this unit has been Luke Gregerson. Gregerson owns a killer slider that has become one of the more dangerous pitches in the league. The reliever recently had a streak where he didn’t allow a walk to 110 consecutive batters, a new Padres record for relievers. Gregerson, coupled with Mike Adams and Heath Bell, make the most lethal 7-8-9 relief combination in baseball.
The Marlins bullpen is not as stable, nor as dominant. The trio of Clay Hensley, Renyel Pinto and closer Leo Nunez have been solid, but the rest of the ‘pen have had their struggles, and have cost the Marlins a game or two. The Padres have the clear advantage in this matchup.
Outlook
Johnson has gotten to the point where it’s very hard to bet against him. His dominance, coupled with San Diego’s (at-times) inept offense, leads me to believe the Marlins will win this game. The question mark is Florida’s bullpen. The Padres have made a habit of failing against a starter, only to come back in the final innings and capitalize on bullpens. A complete game by Johnson would circumvent all those fears; a performance like that isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and if you’re betting, it’s a good chance to take.
Gambling Trends:
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of San Diego’s last 16 games when playing on the road against Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego’s last 8 games on the road
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Florida’s last 16 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida’s last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida’s last 7 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida’s last 6 games at home
Pick: Florida Marlins
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Poolside Rants hails from beautiful Bozeman Montana by way of Toronto, Canada. (Blame his wife for the move). He’s a Dallas Cowboys football honk. But please….don’t hold that against him. The man knows his sports and has uncanny knowledge when it comes to picking games.
