MLB Handicapping
There isn’t a team in the game employing a four-man rotation at the moment, which means that each week, each team will send out five different starting pitchers. That’s five players from each of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams, meaning that at least 150 different names will hit the betting board in a given week.
It can be tough to keep track of all those names, and what kind of form each of those pitchers is in. Here’s a list of five pitchers whose names you’re going to want see on the betting board in the coming weeks, because they’ll probably offer some value.
Patrick Corbin, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin won’t be catching anyone by surprise in the second half of the season after he was named to his first All Star Game, but Corbin’s 10-1 record with a 2.40 ERA and 0.98 WHIP haven’t been enough for oddsmakers to price him as an elite starter. He is especially deserving of joining the elite ranks when at home, where he has limited opposing hitters to a .184 batting average while posting a 6-0 record with a 1.56 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.
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Corbin’s 10-1 record is impressive, but what’s even more impressive is Arizona’s 16-2 record when Corbin takes the hill. Bettors that have backed Corbin this season have profited 13.45 units.
Jeremy Hefner, SP, New York Mets
The best ERA in baseball since June 4 doesn’t belong to Justin Verlander, or Clayton Kershaw, or Cliff Lee. It belongs to Jeremy Hefner. Not everything has come up roses for Hefner in that time. He’s allowed nine unearned runs in those seven starts, but he’s kept men off the basepaths, posting a 1.07 WHIP, and the Mets have been victorious in each of his last five outings. [dfads params=’groups=10&limit=1&return_javascript=0′]
Matt Garza, SP, Chicago Cubs
Garza may be throwing for opposing scouts as much as he is for the Cubs right now, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting incredible numbers over his last five outings. After a rough start against the Reds in which he allowed nine runs over five innings of work, Garza has posted a 0.97 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP in his last trips to the mound, all Cubs wins. While Garza dazzles opposing scouts, bettors would be wise to get in on the action.
Jacob Turner, SP, Miami Marlins
Turner was one of the pieces that headed to Miami as part of the Anibal Sanchez trade. His numbers in Detroit were hardly impressive, but he’s been a different man since bringing his talents to South Beach.
After posting a 3.38 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP in seven starts with the Fish a year ago, Turner has been even better this season. Through eight starts, Turner is 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP. The team’s 5-3 record when he takes the hill isn’t all that impressive, but the 3.58 units he’s made bettors is impressive. Backing a lousy Marlins team certainly isn’t for the squeamish, but if you pick your spots, backing Turner could be a very profitable endeavor.
Bud Norris, SP, Houston Astros
Norris’s story is similar to a couple of the pitchers above. First, each of his starts is effectively an audition for contending clubs, and second, backing the Astros is not for the squeamish. You’re going to want to pick your spots when riding with Norris. One spot specifically: Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. Over the last two seasons, bettors that have backed Norris at home have profited 4.90 units, with Norris going 8-4 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in those games.
Norris won’t get another start at home until after the All Star break, but you might want to keep an eye out for when he does.
