SWEET 16 RETURNEES… Buyer Beware
With the 2009 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let’s take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived. It pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year. Do they perform like a team with experience and panache, or do they execute like CEO’s expecting cushy bonuses while steering a sinking ship? Let’s take a look.
According to our database, since 1991, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 are 50-33 SU and 35-47-1 ATS in Round Three of the tourney. The cut-line, however, is the pointspread.
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That’s confirmed by the fact that favorites of more than 6 points are 28-2 SU and 18-12 ATS in these games. Priced at anything less (dog or favorite of 6 or fewer points), they dip drastically to 22-31 SU and 17-35-1 ATS in competitive contests.
Last year witnessed five SWEET 16 returnees, namely Kansas (-12, 72-59), Memphis (-4.5, 92-74), North Carolina (-8.5, 68-47), Tennessee (+3, 60-79) and UCLA (-12, 88-78). Four of the five managed SU victories, while going 3-2 ATS.
The common denominator among the four winning teams, you ask? Scoring margin. All four victors had larger scoring margins within the tourney than did their opponent. The loser, Tennessee, took a back seat in tournament scoring average to their opponent, Louisville (+10 net ppg vs. +24 net ppg).
Taking a look at this year’s list of returnees, we find no less than seven teams that we here last year. They include – Kansas, Louisville, Memphis, Michigan State, North Carolina, Villanova and Xavier. What a coincidence. Five of this year’s sweet seven own higher tourney scoring margins, with Michigan State on the short end (+7.0 net ppg vs. Kansas +13.5 net ppg) and Louisville dead-even with Arizona (each +13.5 net ppg).
Unlike last season when four of the five returnees were No. 1 seeds, only two from this year’s group (the Cardinals and Tar Heels) are top seeds.
Looking at it from a ‘seed’ perspective, SWEET 16 returnees are 40-11 SU and 26-25 ATS as No. 1 or No. 2 seeds. If these top two seeded squads scored more than 75 points in their last game to advance to this round they improve to 27-4 SU and 19-12 ATS, including 23-1 SU and 17-7 ATS if they are also off a double-digit win.
You can draw your own conclusions, if you like.
But make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16 the winners will likely be those that have ‘been there-and-done that’, keeping their team afloat, if you know what I mean…
Comments are Welcome!!!
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