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There have been 3 teams that have established themselves as odds on favorite to win the NBA Championship, with a couple just outside the elite 3, and a couple other hopefuls…

Post All Star Break and What Lies Ahead

There have been 3 teams that have established themselves as odds on favorite to win the NBA Championship, with a couple just outside the elite 3, and a couple other hopefuls. The Lakers, Cavs, and Celtics, all within a single loss of each other, are going to be in a dog fight for what will be a critical home-court advantage.

The second tier of teams are Orlando, San Antonio, and Denver, who are positioned 4-6 and are in striking distance, but not likely to take over all 3 of the top tier teams. Then their are teams 6-9 that are all above .600 at the break in win percentage, but a touch below the top teams in the league.

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So what lies ahead? Who will be crowned the champion in 2009? The numbers at this point say the Lakers, and the numbers on the remaining schedule agree. The Lakers have done the best job of any team vs the teams with a .600+ winning percentage. That list includes the 3 tiers of teams posted above. The Lakers are 10-4 vs these teams, and the schedule has them playing 3 more at home vs these teams and 5 on the road. The Cavs are nextin line, as they are 8-5 vs these teams, and perhaps the most telling statistic of all is no other team, including Boston, is over .500 against the top 9. Does that point to a Cavs vs Lakers final? LeBron vs Kobe? Certainly the NBA and the Network of TV would love to see that.

Boston is 8-8 vs these 9 teams, and unfortunately for thm, the schedule has them playing 9 of these teams on the road after the break, more than any other team in the top 9, which certainly makes the road for them the most difficult, but not impossible. Tow losses to the Lakers, means they can’t finish tied with LA, so they have another strike against them. The only good news is they have a total of just 14 games vs these top 9 teams while everyone else has at least as many or more.

Watching this Laker team go through Boston, and Cleveland in back-to-back games on the road, and winning, certainly in the moment makes you feel this is the best team so far. The offense looks unstoppable, but then again, they went into the playoffs last year, going 28-5 when scoring 100+ in their last 33, and went into the finals vs Boston, and in 6 games, managed to score a maximum of 103 points, and were held to 92 or less in 4 of the 6 games. After the first 2 rounds last year, LA was just 2-6 on the road in the playoffs, and were held to less than 100 points 5 times.

It will be interesting to see if the LA defense has risen above the defenses that held them down last year, or they will be faced with the same thing, not being able to defend well enough, when the game becomes half-court and defensive.

It truly seems like this year, more than any year, the home-court will be critical in determining who wins it all, and with all 3 of the top teams separated by a single game, it will likely come down to the wire. It certainly will be interesting to say the least.

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