Tease your way to NFL Profits (09-04-2008)
By Tony George
Now that the king of all sports wagering is upon us, that being football, it is time to maximize profits and minimize losses for the smart player. As a professional handicapper it is not only my job to pick winning selections for my clients, but to help them maximize their profits with those selections.
I have written about the flat betting technique I use (equal amounts of money on each bet), which you all should consider as well, but now we look to our insurance policy of 2 team 6 point teasers at 11 to 10 odds in the NFL.
If you look at the average margin of victory in the NFL over the past 12 seasons, you will find that number to be just over 5.4 points. Now one would assume if you are getting 6 points per a side or total in the NFL, your chances of a winning wager are greatly increased. Any professional handicapper given 6 points a side in the NFL can beat the book at least 70% of the time, I assure you. With this mind, ask yourself a question. How many games have you lost against the spread by 1 or 2 points over the last 5 years? I already know the answer.
Imagine if you had laid a unit on each of those games with an added 6 points on a teaser play at 11 to 10 odds! Count the winners boys. It is a solid backup plan for your weekly selections, on your top two plays, as a backup plan in case you do not go 2-0, or 1-1. You can recoup some losses or maximize those profits. On my NFL cards every week for my clients, I always have a 2-team teaser in the NFL. One area that I have pounded over the years is a home team getting more than 3 points. My success rate is over 75% ATS with those games. Give any team 9+ points at home in the NFL, and I’ll take those odds any day. There is parity in the NFL, and all teams have a shot to beat another team on any given Sunday. I will take my chances getting 9 points or more on almost any NFL team at home or on the road, you just do not see that many blowouts in the NFL each season.
This rule also applies to College Ball, but I almost exclusively use it in the NFL. Free agency has made the game much more competitive over the last 10 years. Almost every team out there has a shot to win every week. Free agency played a major part in leveling the playing field, and proves that parity in the NFL is present and rears its ugly head weekly in blowing covers, even for smart players like myself.
