Raiders vs. Giants Trends + Week 5 Pick

October 11, 2009 by Ray M.

Week 5 NFL Picks – Oakland Raiders at New York Giants

Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants
Sunday, October 11 – 1:00 PM ET

The New York Giants (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U) may or may not starting quarterback Eli Manning under center when they take the field for their Week 5 showdown against the dysfunctional Oakland Raiders (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U).

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But honestly, it won’t make much difference either way as the superior Giants will cruise to victory over the Silver and Black.

The G-Men will host the Raiders at Giants Stadium on Sunday at 1 PM ET.

Regressing Oakland Raiders quarterback JaMarcus Russell was held to 128 yards passing in Oakland’s 29-6 loss to the Texans in Week 4, completing just 12 of 33 passes in the loss.

The Raiders failed to cover the spread as 9-point road underdogs while the game’s final score played Under the 43-point O/U total.

Eli Manning completed 20 of 34 passes for 292 yards with three TDs and one interception in Week 4 as the Giants beat the Kansas City Chiefs 27-16 to narrowly cover the game’s NFL betting odds as 9.5-point road favorites while the 43 combined points played out as a Push against the O/U total.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and NFL Betting Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NFL Free Picks.

Raiders are 20-42-1 ATS in their last 63 games following a ATS loss.
Giants are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Giants are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
Under is 4-1-1 in Raiders last 6 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-0- 1 in Giants last 6 games following a ATS win.

With Eli questionable, there are no NFL Odds posted for this contest at the time of this writing. But you can expect a point spread to favor New York from anywhere between 14.5 and 17 points with an Over/Under total that lies between 38.5 and 40.0 points.

Analysis: While I like the Giants to lay a ‘smackdown’ on the lowly Raiders in this contest, I like the Raiders to cover what will be a very high point spread in this contest. I think last week’s matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, which the Giants won by 11 points is a very good measuring stick as to how many points the Giants will beat the Raiders by.

However, I think the best bet for this matchup will be to play the Under as the key trends for this contest suggest.

The Giants have gone a disappointing 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more and just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a losing road record.

First and foremost, play the Under – and if you’ve got the courage, take the Raiders to cover!

NFL Free Picks: Giants 24 Raiders 10