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Cappers Patriots vs. Chargers Betting Trends + Pick

Preview and Week 6 NFL cappers matchup tips for this week’s New England Patriots and the San Diego Chargers matchup, plus an NFL Betting Preview, a look at the gambling trends, plus a free pick

NFL Free Pick Analysis – ‘New Look’ Patriots Visit Desperate Chargers

The New England Patriots (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U), got back in the win column in the BetUS Sportsbook on Sunday, beating the rebuilding, (again) San Francisco 49ers on the road, 30-21.

The San Diego Chargers (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U) took an inexplicable 17-10 road loss on the chin to a clearly inferior Miami Dolphins team and enter this Week 6 contest in flat-out desperation mode.

The Patriots have a ‘new look’ with quarterback Matt Cassel replacing injured starter Tom Brady for the remainder of the regular season and are clearly not the same explosive offensive unit they previously were because of the injury-related change.

New England has seen their offense drop to mediocre levels with Brady gone, ranking in the bottom third in total yards, (23rd), passing yards, (21st) and points scored, (25.0).

While they are also not the same defensive unit they used to be either, the Patriots have managed to put up respectable defensive numbers, ranking 11th in total yards allowed, (300.0), eighth in pass defense, limiting opponents to just 175.2 yards per game and 12th in points allowed, limiting opponents to just 19.8 points per contest.

If the Patriots have a chink in their armor defensively, it would be against the run where they are ranked just 21st overall and are giving up 124.8 yards per game on the ground.

The Chargers were man-handled by the rebuilding Dolphins on Sunday, seeing running back LaDainian Tomlinson held to just 35 yards on 12 carries while simultaneously allowing Miami running back Ronnie Brown to rush for 125 yards on 24 carries with one touchdown.

Off to another slow start for the third straight season, the Chargers are averaging 325.2 total yards per game, (15th) with quarterback Philip Rivers passing for 226.6 yards per contest, (ninth). Despite having arguably the game’s best running back in Tomlinson, San Diego is ranked just 21st in rushing, averaging 98.6 yards per game on the ground. Still, the Bolts have been able to score a whopping 29.6 points per contest, good for fourth overall.

Defensively, San Diego has taken a big step backwards from the dominating unit they have been the last few seasons, allowing 379.0 total yards per game, (28th) including a whopping 265.6 passing yards per contest, dead-last in the league. The Chargers are also allowing 25.8 points per contest, (24th).

Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my analysis and NFL Free Picks.

Patriots

New England is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
New England is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England’s last 11 games
New England is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 5 games on the road
New England is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Diego
New England is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego

Chargers

San Diego is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 games
San Diego is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games
San Diego is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
San Diego is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego’s last 6 games at home
San Diego is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England

NFL Odds

New England Patriots +6 -110
San Diego Chargers -6 -110

Over 45 -110
Under 45 -110

Analysis: My fellow BetUS NFL Sportsbook enthusiasts need not think twice about this selection at all as the San Diego Chargers will undoubtedly win this game and cover the spread. The Chargers know they cannot afford another loss right now and luckily will be facing a Patriots team that isn’t nearly as explosive offensively under Matt Cassel as they were under Tom Brady.

While San Diego clearly has some defensive issues they need to straighten out, I say this pick is as easy as pie as the Bolts will win this game handily to cover the spread while also keeping the set O/U total Under the combined 45 points.

NFL Free Picks: Chargers -6 Points/Under 45 Total Points

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"