NFL Week 5 Parlay – Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns (+6) vs. Buffalo Bills (-6)
O/U (40½)
Sunday, October 11 – 1:00 PM ET
The Cleveland Browns (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U) haven’t won a game this season but looked pretty good even in defeat in Week 4.
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The Buffalo Bills (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U) played very solid football the first two weeks of the regular season, going 1-1 over the span, but have gotten progressively worse in dropping each of their last two games.
Now, both teams will be in ‘desperation mode’ when they meet at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday at 1 PM ET.
Derek Anderson got his first start of the season and completed 26 of 48 passes for 269 yards with one touchdown and one interception in Cleveland’s 23-20 loss to Cincinnati in overtime in Week 4.
The Bengals failed to cover the NFL betting odds as a 6-point home favorite while the 43 combined points played Over the 37.5-point O/U total.
Trent Edwards completed 14-of-26 passes for 192 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions for Buffalo in its 38-10 blowout loss to Miami in Week 4. The Bills failed to cover the spread as 1-point road favorites while the 48 combined points played Over the 37.5-point O/U total.
Here is a look at this game’s key trends and Football Betting Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NFL Free Picks.
Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
Browns are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Browns are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Bills are 25-8-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Under is 3-0-1 in Browns last 4 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 home games.
NFL Odds
Cleveland Browns +6 -110
Buffalo Bills -6 -110
Over 40½ -110
Under 40½ -110
Analysis: Let’s start with ‘the bad’ for both teams NFL sports bettors.
Cleveland has gone 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and a pathetic 0-5 ATS in their last five road games while Buffalo has gone an uninspiring 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite and an even uglier 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
On the positive side, the Browns have 6-0 ATS in their last six games in October and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a losing home record.
The Bills, on the other hand, have compiled a solid 4-1 ATS mark in their last five games following an SU loss while going an impressive 25-8-1 ATS against a team with a losing record.
After that look at the game’s key trends, I am going to take the Buffalo Bills to narrowly cover the 6-point spread here against a Browns team that just traded its best deep threat receiver in Braylon Edwards and may now struggle to score points despite making the correct call by switching quarterbacks from Brady Quinn to Derek Anderson prior to last week.
Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards should be able to hook up deep with play-making wideouts Terrell Owens and Lee Evans against a Browns secondary that leaves a lot to be desired or he may find himself taking a seat on the bench next to head coach Dick Jauron pretty soon himself.
With the Over going a spotless 5-0 in Buffalo’s last five games following an SU loss and 4-1 in the Bills’ last five games against a team with a losing record – and two uninspiring defenses taking the field, I like the Over to cash in as well.
NFL Free Picks: Buffalo Bills -6 Points/Over 40½ Total Points
