Broncos vs. Chiefs Betting Trends + Pick Wk 14

December 4, 2008 by Ray M.

NFL Football Picks – Broncos Host Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-10 SU, 6-6 ATS, 6-6 O/U) snapped their seven-game losing streak in the BetUS Sportsbook the last time out, beating the lowly Oakland raiders 20-13 as a 3-point road underdog. The Denver Broncos (7-5 SU, 4-7-1 ATS, 6-5-1 O/U) shocked the New York Jets in Week 13, beating ‘Brett and the Boys’ 34-17 despite being a 7.5-point road underdog.

Divisional bragging rights and a two-game winning streak will be on the line on Sunday when the longtime rivals meet at INVESCO Field at Mile High.

Chiefs’ quarterback Tyler Thigpen completed 15 of 22 passes fore 162 yards while running back Larry Johnson rushed for 92 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries.

“You have no idea how good it feels to finally get a win. It’s been so long,” said Hall of Fame bound tight end Tony Gonzalez, who had eight catches for 110 yards. “We haven’t been able to get over that hump. So it just feels real good to come out here and get a good victory.”

“We had a lead in the second half and finally put one away,” head coach Herm Edwards said. “It was tough. It got sticky again. You kind of looked at it and you’re wondering, ‘OK, are you guys going to find a way to win this?’ And they did. Hopefully we can gain some confidence from that.”

Broncos quarterback Jay Culter completed 27 of 43 passes for 357 yards with two touchdowns and an interception while running back Peyton Hillis rushed for 129 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries.

“He embraced throwing in the rain,” Denver coach Mike Shanahan said. “He likes it. There is nothing that seems to bother him. Some guys it bothers, others it doesn’t. With Cutler, he likes throwing the wet ball.”

“I don’t know if ‘likes’ is the right word,” Cutler said. “I think it has a lot to do with mind-set. We knew last night what the conditions would be like. I’ve had some success in the past in inclement weather, being able to throw it. I just feel comfortable back there throwing it.”

“The thing that really got me going was the ESPN analysis and they were all saying we shouldn’t get off the plane,” Hillis said. “That really got me fired up.”

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my in-depth analysis and NFL Free Pick.

Kansas City is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Kansas City’s last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Kansas City’s last 14 games when playing Denver
Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver’s last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Denver’s last 14 games when playing Kansas City

NFL Odds

Kansas City Chiefs +9 -110
Denver Broncos -9 -110

Over 48½ -110
Under 48½ -110

Analysis: Maybe it’s me, but I just don’t trust the Kansas City Chiefs despite their win over Oakland. The Broncos need a big win to help their postseason chances and should be able to get the job done at home in this matchup. Take the Broncos to win at home and cover.