Wildcard Weekend Gambling – Baltimore Ravens vs KC Chiefs
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Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday January 9 – 1:00PM
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, Missouri
Baltimore (12-4) -140 vs Kansas City (10-6) +120 (Odds courtesy of BetUS)
Spread Favourite: Baltimore -3
Go Inside This Matchup With Our NFL ATS Stats —>
(odds courtesy of BetUS – BET NOW Click Here!)
The Ravens may be the Wild Card team and on the road but they are getting the nod as the favourite in this opening round playoff matchup. This should come as no surprise given that they have the better regular season record and a far more experienced team that has been in this same spot before. They are also entering the playoffs on a four game winning streak. This team is well built and well positioned for playoff success.
The Ravens offense has a lot of skill but doesn’t score very many points – they average only 22 points per game which is right in the middle of the pack. Joe Flacco had a nice season and can be dangerous because he doesn’t focus on any one particular target. Three Ravens caught 60 or more balls this season including RB Ray Rice who really excels in the passing game. They just need to get him going in the running game too. He rushed for 1200+ yards but his yards per carry were down more than a yard from a season ago.
Baltimore played the Chiefs in 2009 and won easily 38-24 – K.C. is a different team than it was last year so you can thrown that out the window. Baltimore has been a good team on the road this season (5-3) especially as a favourite (3-1 ATS). There are lots of reasons to like the Ravens in this one. For me it just doesn’t feel like their season is done yet and it would be a lot to expect K.C. to make an even bigger breakthrough than they already have this season.
What a turnaround for the Chiefs. Many thought this team would be improved but I don’t think you can find a single pundit who had the Chiefs in the playoffs with the Chargers out. Sure the Chargers squandered their opportunities but Kansas City utilized the time tried combination of a top running game and solid defense to get the necessary victories to get to this point. Too bad for them they have such a tough opening opponent.
Kansas City’s formula is predicated on having success running the ball. Jamaal Charles is a real gamebreaker – he averages almost 6.5 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Thomas Jones pounds out the tough yards. Between the two of them they gained more than 2300 yards on the season. When they do have to throw, QB Matt Cassel aims mainly at Dwayne Bowe. Bowe is another gamebreaker who may be finally coming into his own. He led the NFL with 15 TD catches and uses his big frame as much as his speed to average more than 16 yards per catch.
Like all surprise teams the Chiefs helped the public make some money early, jumping out to a 5-1 ATS record after six games. But as their quality of play was established they struggled to meet expectations going 4-6 ATS down the stretch. The game didn’t mean much in terms of the playoff picture but I didn’t like the way Oakland blew them out to close the season. They were playing their starters and the Raiders dominated. Not exactly a boost heading into the playoffs.
The Pick: Kansas City has had a nice run but it ends now. There is a reason they are the underdog even though Arrowhead is one of the best home fields in the NFL. Baltimore wins by a TD, maybe more, and we all make some money.
NFL Gambling Trends
Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Wildcard games.
Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Score Prediction: Baltimore 27 – Kansas City 17