Bet on Week 1!

The start of the NFL season may still be three months away, but with players participating in OTAs it’s hard not to feel excited about this upcoming season. Looking ahead to Week 1, here are 10 games worth watching once the regular year gets underway.

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Thursday, September 5, 2013

Denver Broncos (-8.5) v. Baltimore Ravens

A scheduling conflict sees the Super Bowl champion Ravens opening their season on the road. The Broncos will be out for revenge after their late collapse in the divisional round a year ago. With Peyton Manning breaking in his new toys, Wes Welker and Montee Ball, a blowout could be in order.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Buffalo Bills v. New England Patriots (-7)

The Patriots have owned the Bills in the Brady-Belichick era, but Wes Welker has moved on, and the Pats will also likely be without Rob Gronkowski to start the season. It will be interesting to see how quickly Tom Brady is able to develop a rapport with his new No. 1 target, Danny Amendola.

Chicago Bears (-3.5) v. Cincinnati Bengals

New Bears head coach Marc Trestman promised to bring more excitement to the Bears offense and he’ll get his first chance to put that on display. Keep an eye on how the Bears’ rebuilt offensive line holds up against a Bengals defense that ranked third in the NFL in sacks a year ago.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) v. Atlanta Falcons

Sean Payton returns to the Saints in what they hope will be a bounce back year. These teams have alternated claiming the division crown over each of the last four years and this game could go a long way towards deciding which team finishes atop the NFC South this season.

New York Jets v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2)

These teams got together to pull off one of the bigger trades of the offseason when the Jets shipped Darrelle Revis to the Bucs in exchange for a pair of draft picks. The veteran cornerback will get an early opportunity to make some noise against his former club right out of the gates.

Carolina Panthers v. Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)

There are still some quietly holding out hope for a Panther breakout with the team holding post-hype sleeper status after failing to live up to expectations a year ago, but this game will be all about the Seahawks putting their new weapons on display and making a statement to the rest of the league.

San Francisco 49ers (-5) v. Green Bay Packers

These teams find themselves opening their schedules against one another for a second year in a row. The Packers will be looking for revenge after a pair of losses to the 49ers last season, including the one that ended their season in the divisional round.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) v. New York Giants

The Cowboys retooled their defense a year ago with the Giants in mind and those changes paid immediate dividends in a Week 1 win over the G-men in 2012. The Cowboys haven’t hosted a Week 1 game since 2007 when they beat these very Giants, 45-35.

Monday, September 9, 2013

Washington Redskins (-5) v. Philadelphia Eagles

The NFC East nabs a second prime time slot with the early Monday nighter. Washington hopes to have Robert Griffin III back on the field in time for this contest, but it could be Kirk Cousins at the helm for the Burgundy and Gold. Meanwhile, we’ll get some answers as to whether or not Chip Kelly’s offense will translate to the NFL level.

San Diego Chargers v. Houston Texans (-3)

Philip Rivers and the Chargers will look to turn things around after a forgettable 2012 campaign. New head coach Mike McCoy will face a stern test against a Texans team that is among the best in football. A year ago McCoy’s Broncos accumulated 330 yards and two scores through the air against the Texans, but that was with Peyton Manning at quarterback.

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Betting NFL Futures

The NFL regular season is still a ways away, but with lines beginning to trickle in at various sportsbooks there is no better time to begin trying to identify value.

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Here’s a look at five underdogs in prime position to pull off a Week 1 upset.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Tennessee (+6.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Mike Munchak was Tennessee’s offensive line coach before becoming the team’s head coach. Munchak had one mandate when he was promoted, and that was to get Chris Johnson’s career back on track.

Johnson showed some signs of life over the latter half of the 2012 season, and should be extra-motivated this year with the Titans bringing in Shonn Greene to compete with Johnson for touches in the Titan backfield.

As for the Steelers, they haven’t left Ben Roethlisberger much talent to work with this year, and they let some key defensive players leave via free agency.

The Titans also beat the Steelers in the lone meeting between these teams a year ago.

Cleveland (+1) v. Miami Dolphins

Maybe I’m not going out on much of a limb by picking a 1-point underdog to pull off an upset, but I believe this is the start of a trend that can be very profitable for bettors over the early part of the NFL season.

The Dolphins were very active in free agency this offseason, bringing in an impressive assortment of veteran players, but this is a cautionary tale we’ve heard many times before. Winning teams aren’t assembled through free agency.

However, early action in Vegas has shown that bettors are eager to get behind the Dolphins. This should lead to some very favorable lines for those doubters who don’t believe Miami is poised for the major step forward that many expect.

The first favorable line comes right out of the gate in Cleveland on a Browns team that should be effective this season with Norv Turner calling the shots on offense.

New York Jets (+2) v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Seemingly endless Darrelle Revis trade rumors linked these teams to one another throughout the offseason, and they’ll get to face one another to start the regular year.

Revis will help improve Tampa Bay’s 32nd-ranked pass defense, but that may not be where they need help on this day.

The Jets have a solid offensive line, and they run the ball well. Chris Ivory is very familiar with the Bucs having spent the first three years of his career with the Saints, and he’s averaged 7.0 yards per carry against them.

Arizona Cardinals (+6) at St. Louis Rams

The Rams took a big step forward in Jeff Fisher’s first year as head coach last season. This isn’t a condemnation of the team’s progress, but they’ll have some issues to work through in Week 1.

Key veterans on offense Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola are both gone, leaving Sam Bradford with a stable of young, largely unproven players to work with. Also, the man tagged to take over as the team’s starting running back, Isaiah Pead, has been suspended for this game.

Outside of changes at the safety position the Cardinal defense that has been solid over the last two-plus seasons is largely intact. New quarterback Carson Palmer should at least be able to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald, and the Cardinals are a different team when that happens.

Monday, September 9, 2013

Philadelphia Eagles (+5) at Washington Redskins

I’m not nearly as confident that Robert Griffin III is ready for this game as others seem to be. Kirk Cousins filled in nicely when RGIII went down last season, but the Redskin offense is far less dynamic when he’s under center.

Chip Kelly’s offense may not be successful in the NFL over the long term, but he may be able to pull out a few surprises in Week 1. Steve Spurrier’s Fun ‘n’ Gun offense didn’t last in the NFL, but he was able to catch the Cardinals off guard in Week 1 of the 2002 season to the tune of 31 points and 442 yards of offense.

In the three meetings between these teams started and completed by Michael Vick the Eagles are 3-0, outscoring the Redskins by an average of 20.7 points.

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Padres vs Giants Baseball Odds

The Padres (36-34) have won 7 straight games and they are now only 1 game back of the Diamondbacks for first place in the NL West. The Giants are only 4-6 in their last 10 games, but they are still in the tight race 1.5 games back of the Diamondbacks.

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Venue/ Stadium: AT&T Park, San Francisco, California
Time/Date: 10:15 PM EST Tuesday, June 18, 2013
MLB Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Padres +135 / Giants -145
Over/Under:  7 runs
Odds From Topbet

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San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Preview

MLB lines have the Giants as home favorite with a total of 7 runs.

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In yesterday’s game between these 2 teams the Padres beat the Giants 5-3.

On the season the Padres have an Over/Under record of 35-32 and a run-line W/L record of 41-29 and the Giants have an Over/Under record of 37-29 and a run-line W/L record of 26-43.

This season the Giants are 21-12 at home and the Padres are 14-20 on the road.

The Giants have won 13 of their last 17 home games facing the Padres, but have lost 4 straight to them overall.

Andrew Cashner (5-3 3.52 ERA) goes for the Padres tonight and in his last start he gave up 2 earned runs in 8 innings in a win over the Atlanta Braves.

For the Giants Matt Cain (5-3 4.70) gets the start and in his last outing he went 6 innings and did not give up any earned runs in a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Cashner is 1-1 facing the Giants this season giving up 3 earned runs in 10 innings in those outings.

Cain is 2-0 with an ERA of only .084 in his last 3 starts against the Padres.

The Giants are 1-4 in Cain’s last 5 home starts against the Padres.

SS Everth Cabrera is out for this game and that is a big blow since he leads the Padres in batting average and runs scored.

Marco Scutaro has missed the last few games with a hand injury, but the Giants’ leading hitter may be in the lineup tonight.

In some betting trends for this National League West match up the Padres are 7-0 in their last 7 games overall, 6-1 in Cashner’s last 7 starts, and they have an Over record of 5-1-1 in their last 7 road games.

The Giants are 2-5 in their last 7 overall, 7-2 in Cain’s last 9 starts, and they have an Under record of 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games.

In the last 4 games between these 2 teams in San Francisco the Under record is 3-0-1.

Jason’s Pick: The Padres are hot while the Giants are not, but at home Cain will pitch well and San Francisco will snap San Diego’s winning streak.

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Miami vs San Antonio Handicapping

You can be pretty certain that at no time this season did the Miami Heat players, coaches or front office think that come June they would be facing two consecutive elimination games at home.

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NBA Finals
San Antonio Spurs (3-2) at Miami Heat (2-3)
Tuesday, June 18
AT&T Center, San Antonio
9 p.m. EST
Spread – Heat -7
O/U – 191
Odds From Betonline

ATS Matchup Stats | Gambling Insight!

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Least not when they were ripping off 27 straight and almost running the table for two consecutive months.

Yet here they are, needing to win both tonight and Thursday. The margin for error has now become cardboard in the rain. Miami now can’t afford even one bad half of basketball to get its second straight title and continue that march of championships that Lebron James threw in everyone’s face when he bolted from Cleveland a few years ago.

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It will be more than interesting to see how James and the Heat play it tonight.

***Will James play point forward early on, getting everyone involved and seeing if Mario Chalmers and Chris Bosh can hit enough open jumpers to make it nearly impossible for the Spurs to defend the entire half-court?

***Is 46 hours enough recovery time for Dwyane Wade’s ailing knee after Wade had to go 40-plus minutes in Game 5?

***Miami seems capable of playing fanatical pressure defense for 12 to 15 minutes, usually in the second half. Will the Heat try to apply the screws earlier tonight, hoping to put away the game so key players can save some wind for a Game 7?

***Mindful of how beneficial a Game 7 would be for television ratings, how many free throws will James take tonight? During the regular season James averaged more than seven a game from the line, but in this entire series he’s had only 19 total.

It’s doubtful that any other team is better equipped to handle what the veteran Spurs figure to face tonight in Miami. “Obviously,” said Spours PG Tony Parker, “you want to finish in the first opportunity you get. We understand that Miami is going to come out with a lot more energy, and they’re going to play better at home.”

How San Antonio handles Miami’s pressure defensive pressure will be one of the main keys. All season long the Heat have been able to avoid game-planning for other teams, relying on their own talent and making opposing offenses deal with the Heat’s ability to go into shut-down mode.

The Spurs have taken Miami’s best shot (a 33-5 run in the Heat’s Game 2 win) and now are just one win away from their fifth title.

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Isn’t it about time that the blowouts come to an end? With the exception of Game 1 (SA 92-88), the average margin of victory has been more than 20 points. The Heat are healthy 7-point favorites in this one, the number no doubt reflecting Miami’s favor among bettors internationally.

Liking the Spurs to cover in this one, the only concerns being Gregg Popovich’s tendency to outcoach himself like he did in Game 5 by starting Tiago Splitter, and the NBA’s desire to get this to a Game 7.

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Bet on the NBA

Game 5 of the NBA Finals produced one of the most entertaining basketball games of the season. Each side’s Big Three came to play, and they didn’t disappoint. San Antonio’s win leaves Miami in the precarious position of needing to win consecutive games to claim their second consecutive NBA title. Here are five reasons why you can expect them to do just that:

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1. Game 7 is inevitable

Before the ball was even thrown up to begin Game 1 many observers were already speculating that a Game 7 was in the cards. The teams have alternated wins through the first five games of the series and now it’s Miami’s turn to respond to a San Antonio win for a third time.

The Heat have blown out the Spurs following each of their first two losses in this series. The Heat are 12-0 in their last 12 games following a loss, winning those games by an average of 19.5 points. With their backs against the wall in Game 6, Miami surely won’t want to see that streak come to an end.

2. “Not one, not two, not three…”

Three franchise players in the prime of their careers wouldn’t have gotten together if they didn’t think they could create something special. This group was assembled to win championships. LeBron made that perfectly clear when he got up on a stage at the American Airlines Arena and made his now infamous proclamation.

The team finally realized how close they were to actually letting a second championship in as many years slip away on Sunday night and responded with a spirited effort down the stretch in San Antonio, even when the game looked lost. They’ll be tough to beat if they play that way over the next two games.

3. Tony Parker’s hamstring is ready to tear

If you were to go back and look through any series preview written before Game 1 of the Finals, you would inevitably see that to a man, everyone thought that Tony Parker would have to play out of his mind to keep this series respectable.

Parker hasn’t looked like himself in the Finals, and has spent more time on the bench than normal. At some point the Spurs are going to need him to make a play, and he may not have it in him right now to come through.

4. Regression to the mean

As a team the Spurs shot 60.0 percent from the field in Game 5. It’s tough for anyone to beat you when you do that. In spite of that terrific shooting performance the Heat were right in the thick of things until the final minute of the game. Expect the team’s 46.9 percent shooting average to come down the rest of the way. Miami has limited opponents to 43.9 percent shooting from the field in the postseason.

Danny Green has to come back down to Earth eventually, doesn’t he? Green has been unconscious in the Finals, shattering the record for threes in the final series. He contributed six three-pointers as part of his 24 points in Game 5. This is a guy the Spurs have cut twice. Twice.

Manu Ginobili’s insertion into the starting lineup in Game 5 surely came as a surprise to those outside the San Antonio organization considering Ginobili hadn’t started all season, making him the first player since Marcus Camby in 1999 to start an NBA Finals game after not previously starting a game in the regular or postseason that year.

Ginobili had been having a miserable time in the postseason before Game 5, and averaged only 7.5 points and 3.0 assists in the Finals before contributing 24 points and 10 assists in Game 5. Surely a repeat performance from the 35-year-old is unlikely. He had scored in double-digits only twice in his previous nine games.

5. They call him King James

He’s put the team on his back before and there’s no reason to think he won’t do it again. LeBron averages 31.5 points per game when facing elimination, the highest mark in NBA history among players to play five or more elimination games.

Additionally, the King’s supporting cast has shown signs of life. LeBron had carried the team through the first three games of the series, and most of the playoffs before that, but Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh put together inspired performances in Games 4 and 5 and with the Big Three firing on all cylinders, the Heat bring too much talent to the table for the Spurs to contend with.

The Heat will get the final two games of this series at home where they have limited opponents to 87.7 points per game in the postseason.

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Stanley Cup Final Moves to Boston for Game 3

The Stanley Cup Final makes its first appearance in Boston in two years Monday night when the Bruins, who evened the series Saturday night, look to take control over the hard-luck Chicago Blackhawks who had their chances but were unable to solve Tuukka Rask in Game 2.

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Chicago Blackhawks (49-11-2-5) at Boston Bruins (41-17-5-3)
When: 8:00 PM ET, Monday, June 17, 2013
Where: TD Banknorth Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Broadcast: CBC, RDS, NBCSN
Series tied 1-1
Hawks vs. Bruins Betting Lines from betonline.com
Chicago Blackhawks +1½ -280 +114 Ov 5 +132
Boston Bruins -1½ +235 -126 Un 5 -145
Odds From SportsBettingOnline

Matchup | Preview

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Although these two teams didn’t meet during the regular season they should be familiar with each other already – they have played nearly 10 periods in the two games of the Final so far. The TD Garden has been a difficult place for opposing teams to play so far in the playoffs – the Bruins have won six straight games on home ice ahead of Monday’s Game 3.

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For the first time in the playoffs, the Chicago Blackhawks looked tired in Game 2. After all it was their third straight overtime game having posted a double-overtime series-clinching victory over reigning champion Los Angeles in the Western Conference final and playing two straight emotional physical games in this series. They started Game 2 very well and definitely deserved better than a 1-0 lead after 20 minutes of play. But the team slowed significantly after the first period and let the Bruins dictate the game after that – and they obviously paid the price. The Blackhawks put 19 shots on goal in that first period and need a way to sustain that kind of pressure.

Some good news for Chicago – Patrick Kane has four goals and an assist in his last four games. He had recorded two goals and set up eight others in his previous 15 contests. Patrick Sharp was also dominant Saturday. He scored his ninth goal of the playoffs in Game 2 tying him with David Krejci – he also recorded seven shots on goal. Some bad news – Duncan Keith has logged a mind-boggling 121:01 of ice time in the last three games. Also the Hawks have failed to score on their last 15 power play chances – surprising considering the talent on this team.

But this is the Final – time to put it all on the line.

The Boston Bruins certainly weathered a storm in the first period of Game 2 and the team got better as the game wore on despite the top line of Horton, Krejci and Lucic failing to record a shot for the first 2 1/2 periods. Simply put they got back to Bruins hockey – strong forechecking, solid defense and stellar goaltending propelled them to victory.

Credit Coach Claude Julien for a minor tweak in the line combinations – a new third line featuring Tyler Seguin, Dan Paille and Chris Kelly scored both goals on Saturday night and looked like the best line on the ice. Depth was long thought to be a determining factor in this series and on Saturday night the Bruins won that battle!

Tuukka Rask was sensational in the first part of Game 2 and was the only reason the Bruins had a chance to rally. He made 33 saves including 18-of-19 in the first period alone. Credit Boston’s defense as well – Chicago only managed nine shots combined through the final two periods of regulation. The Hawks failed to score with the man advantage as well – the Bruins have now killed off 22 straight penalties against.

Betting Prediction

A few trends to consider:

• Under is 10-1-2 in CHI last 13 road games.
• CHI are 49-18 in their last 67 overall.
• CHI are 22-9 in their last 31 Mon. games.
• BOS are 24-3 in their last 27 Mon. games.
• CHI are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings.

In Game 2 we saw the Bruins return to the style of game that made them successful to this point in the season – hard-nosed in both ends of the rink. In turn, they may have exposed the Hawks defense just a tad. Expect more of the same Monday with the Bruins punishing the Hawks en route to another low scoring victory. Boston looks to have found something and will continue to exploit it.

Pick: Boston Bruins -126

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San Antonio vs Miami Handicapping

LeBron James is LeBron James, and Tim Duncan is perhaps the most consistent big man in the last three decades in the NBA. So both the Heat and Spurs pretty much knew that their stars would bring the goods in these Finals.

NBA Finals
Miami Heat (2-2) at San Antonio Spurs (2-2)
Sunday, June 16
AT&T Center, San Antonio
8 p.m. EST
Spread – Heat -1.5
O/U – 188
Odds From Sportsbook.ag

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But the way series has shaken down, the spotlight has also shone brightly on other players.

Danny Green’s out-of-nowhere 7-for-9 shooting from 3-point territory in Game 3 gave San Antonio a huge boost a 2-1 series lead, then in Game 4 the Dwyane Wade of old emerged for the Heat – 32 points and six steals more than got the job done, and the Spurs had no answers as Miami evened things up with a 16-point win that wasn’t even that close.

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Seems like everyone on both teams has had a breakthrough game that has impacted the series – everyone, that is, except Manu Ginobili.

Tne Spurs proved in Games 1 and 3 that they don’t need Ginobili firing on all cylinders to win, but SA coach Gregg Popovich hopes that he can get something – anything – for his top sub.

Ginobili did have 13 points and one turnover in the opener, but even then shot only 4 for 11 from the floor. He followed that up with a 2-for-5 (5 points) in the Game 2 loss, and in the two games in San Antonio is a combined 4 for 12 for 12 points. Ginobili has been sloppy with the ball as he often has to deal with the defense of James.

Fact is, Ginobili is 35 and he’s starting to realize that he can’t do the things that he once did on the court.

“That’s what it has been all year,” Ginobili said after Game 4. “I haven’t scored 30 points a game. I averaged 10. I wish I could score more, but it is not happening. I gotta try to do other stuff. I gotta move the ball.

If my shot is not falling, I gotta be sharp feeding the bigs and finding the shooters.

… I don’t have to force the issue.

That’s not what I do.

That’s not what I am asked to do.”

Miami is hardly cooperating. When Ginobili is on the court and the Heat ramp up their defense, it’s not a pretty sight. In Game 2 Ginobili’s three turnovers came at times when Miami went into its frenetic half-court lockdown defense, helping fuel the Heat’s crazy 33-5 eight-minute run that breathed life into the series.

With Tony Parker’s hammie on thin ice, the Spurs are hoping against hope that Ginobili can turn back the clock for a few games.

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We expected close games, and we’ve gotten three blowouts out of four as the losing teams’ adjustments have paid off. With the Finals reduced to a best-of-three, the series will now turn on whether James goes nuts in two of the three, or SA controls him (and Wade) somewhat and executes its offense at near-peak efficiency.

Liking SA to keep this game close and low-scoring, and get it done in the fourth period.

Play is on the under after two overs have bumped the number up a bit, to 188.

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U.S. Open Predictions

The 113th edition of the US Open returns to Merion Golf Club for the first time since 1981 this week. Golf`s biggest names will be after one of the four most prestigious prizes on the planet when they tee it up Thursday.

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2013 U.S. Open Championship
Location: Ardmore, Pennsylvania, United States
Course: Merion Golf Club
Date: Jun 13-16, 2013
Total Purse: US $ 6,500,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,170,000 (18% of total purse)
Odds from Bovada

Defending Champion: Webb Simpson ($1,440,000)

The course measures just 6,996 yards – the shortest since 2004 but to say that this track will be easy is a colossal understatement. Course management will be key, ball striking will be essential and slick greens are promised as well this week. To add to the intrigue in the second major of the year, most of the field had never played here before Merion was announced as host of the Open. Rain early in the week may slow down the course but a stiff test is absolutely guaranteed.

So let`s break it down, let`s take a look at some names that should do well this week in the year`s second major.

The Favorites:

Tiger Woods 9/2

Tiger enters as the overwhelming favorite and why not? His wedge game and putting have gone to a different level this year although those two aspects of his game were awful at the Memorial two weeks ago. He currently leads the PGA TOUR with four victories and is first in adjusted scoring and the all-around ranking and as long as he’s entered he absolutely has to be in the conversation.

Graeme McDowell 20/1

McDowell has been heating up as the year wears on and his history at the Open is undeniable. McDowell has won two of his last four starts worldwide, has made the cut in the US Open all seven times with a win in 2010 and a T2 last year. He’s first on TOUR in driving accuracy and scrambling and already proved this year that he doesn’t mind small tight tracks – he won at Harbour Town on a course similar to this one. Graeme always seems to show up on the leaderboard in the US Open and this year should be no different.

Matt Kuchar 20/1

Kuchar enters the US Open as the hottest player on TOUR – two wins this year and a runner-up finish ( a win and a T2 in his last two events played). He was T6 at the Open in 2010, T14 in 2011 and T27 in 2012 but enters in the best form of his career. Stats like 13th in strokes gained-putting, 10th in scrambling, fourth in adjusted scoring, T7 in par-4 scoring and fourth in par-5 scoring will certainly help him this week.

Phil Mickelson 20/1

Can anyone figure Phil out? He has nine top 10s in the US Open and has finished second a staggering five times. But he enters this week as inconsistent as we have ever seen him. He did finish T2 at TPC Southwind, his fourth top-three finish of the year but has had a knack of missing the cut the week after a good performance. Phil scares me for sure this week!

Rory McIlroy 20/1

Rory is another tough guy to figure out – he certainly hasn’t been all that dominant this year. But as a former US Open champ he has to be in the conversation. Rory just hasn’t been the same guy since Nike snatched him away but talent trumps all – if he gets it going early, confidence could take him to a championship.

The Contenders:

Adam Scott 22/1

Hasn’t been playing all that much but if there is a better “big-tournament golfer” on the planet right now, I’d like to see him! He hasn’t finished outside the top 15 in a major since the 2011 Open Championship and has already won the Masters this year. Scott always come up huge in the biggest events and although the tight track doesn’t necessarily suit his game, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him contend.

Justin Rose 22/1

Rose is a dangerous guy if only he could get his putter working! His history at the US Open isn’t great – two top 10s, but four missed cuts in seven starts. Currently he is 17th on TOUR in fairways hit, seventh in GIR, sixth in adjusted scoring and first in par-5 scoring and is coming off an OK T8 at Memorial in his last start. Rose is a quality guy although his game may not suit this track all that well.

Charl Schwartzel 28/1

We are still waiting for Schwartzel to get back to the form that made him the hottest golfer on the planet over the winter. He has 11 top 10s in his last 16 starts worldwide and is coming off a T8 at Muirfield Village. He is 15th in ball-striking on TOUR, T9 in proximity and third in adjusted scoring but may suffer a bit due to his average driving accuracy and scrambling.

Lee Westwood 28/1

C’mon Westy – it’s your turn! He had five straight top 10s before a withdrawal at the Memorial and enters having finished no worse than a T23 in last five editions of the U.S. Open. He is third on TOUR in scrambling, 33rd in fairways hit; 16th in adjusted scoring – perfect attributes for this track. Could this be Westwood’s year to finally break through with his first major?

Webb Simpson 40/1

Defending champion here has eight top 20s this year including a solo second at Harbour Town. He enters this week 40th in greens in regulation and 30th in adjusted scoring and in the top 30 in both par-4 and par-5 scoring. He is always a threat.

Jim Furyk 40/1

Finished T4 in the Open last year and has to be mentioned due to being fourth on TOUR in fairways hit, first in proximity to the hole and 22nd in adjusted scoring.

Steve Stricker 40/1

Stricker keeps plugging along with his abbreviated schedule but has the game to contend this week. He would be inside the top 25 on TOUR – 13th in driving accuracy13th in fairways hit, second in greens in regulation, 13th in strokes gained-putting and 20th in adjusted scoring if he qualified for the official stats. He has made 15 of 17 cuts here and seemingly has the perfect game to challenge here. Don’t sleep on Stricker – he could emerge.

The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):

Henrik Stenson 66/1

Always seems to be in the mix in major tournaments and enters playing arguably his best golf – eight cuts made in 10 starts with three top 10s. He is the PGA TOUR leader in fairways hit, is third in greens in regulation, T23 in adjusted scoring and T5 in par-5 scoring. Stenson’s skills are very well suited for this track making him an intriguing 66/1.

Bill Haas 66/1

Is coming off a T4 at the Memorial where he led after 36 holes – a troubling trend that has seen him look good only to stumble in the last round. He has six top 10s and nine top 25s this year but has a sketchy record at the US Open. He enters 53rd in fairways hit, 13th in greens in regulation, 39th in adjusted scoring, 11th in scrambling and T1 in par-4 scoring.

Billy Horschel 80/1

Had a win earlier this year at the Zurich Classic and is coming off an OK T10 at the FedEx St. Jude. He has been terrific this year on TOUR and ranks 31st in fairways hit, 34th in GIR, 17th in strokes gained-putting, 10th in adjusted scoring and T7 in par-4 scoring. If Billy can put it all together this week, he could represent a very nice payday at 80/1.

Scott Stallings 100/1

Will play the US Open for the first time this week but enters in very good form – T4-T4-T2 in his last three starts. He comes into the US Open with a ton of confidence and is probably the best value on the board.

The Pick:

My pick this week also happens to be one of my favorites Graeme McDowell at 20/1. He has been on fire around the world and is as tough mentally as he is physically. With a soft course and his straight driver, he will have mid to short irons in; he ranks 3rd in approach shots from 125-150 yards.

My sleeper is Henrik Stenson at 66/1. Stenson is No. 1 on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy and No. 3 on Tour in greens in regulation and he loves the big stage.

2013 Memorial Championship at Muifield Betting Lines & Future Odds

Tiger Woods 5.10 to 1
Graeme McDowell 21 to 1
Matt Kuchar 21 to 1
Phil Mickelson 22 to 1
Rory McIlroy 22 to 1
Adam Scott 23 to 1
Justin Rose 25 to 1
Brandt Snedeker 30 to 1
Lee Westwood 30 to 1
Charl Schwartzel 35 to 1
Jim Furyk 40 to 1
Luke Donald 40 to 1
Sergio Garcia 40 to 1
Dustin Johnson 45 to 1
Jason Day 45 to 1
Steve Stricker 45 to 1
Keegan Bradley 50 to 1
Webb Simpson 55 to 1
Louis Oosthuizen 65 to 1
Matteo Manassero 65 to 1
Rickie Fowler 65 to 1
Hunter Mahan 70 to 1
Jason Dufner 70 to 1
Henrik Stenson 80 to 1
Bill Haas 85 to 1
Boo Weekley 85 to 1
Bubba Watson 85 to 1
Martin Kaymer 85 to 1
Zach Johnson 90 to 1
Ian Poulter 95 to 1
Padraig Harrington 95 to 1
Angel Cabrera 100 to 1
Ernie Els 100 to 1
Scott Stallings 100 to 1
Tim Clark 100 to 1
Nick Watney 110 to 1
Ryan Moore 110 to 1
Francesco Molinari 115 to 1
Kevin Chappell 115 to 1
Thorbjorn Olesen 115 to 1
Russell Henley 120 to 1
Billy Horschel 125 to 1
Kevin Streelman 125 to 1
Kyle Stanley 125 to 1
Michael Thompson 125 to 1
Bo Van Pelt 150 to 1
Fredrik Jacobson 150 to 1
KJ Choi 150 to 1
Peter Hanson 150 to 1
FIELD (all others) 5/1

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San Antonio vs Miami Handicapping

It may get a little claustrophobic at American Airlines Arena tonight, where the San Antonio Spurs have a golden opportunity to place the Miami Heat in a small box when Game 2 of the NBA Finals tips off.

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NBA Finals
San Antonio Spurs (1-0) at Miami Heat (0-1)
Sunday, June 9
American Airlines Arena, Miami
8 p.m. EST
Spread – Heat -6
O/U – 187.5
Odds From Sportsbook.ag

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If the Spurs can replicate their Game 1 victory, LeBron and his supporting cast will be placed in the uncomfortable position of having to win four of the next five games – with three of them in San Antonio – against a playoff-tested team that has lost a total of two games during its entire playoff run.

The Heat players know this, and have had several days to figure out how they managed to lose the opener in a game in which Miami outshot the Spurs from the field (43.6 percent to 41.7), the 3-point line (32.0 to 30.4), and outrebounded SA (46-37).

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James, meanwhile, is taking a little heat himself for turtling a bit in the fourth period, when San Antonio pulled itself out of a hole, outscoring Miami 23-16 down the stretch. James had six points in the period, but at times was Just Another Player when everyone in the world figured he would be taking over the game.

LBJ had an odd triple-double (18 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists), but the real concern in Heatville ahead of Game 2 is the uninspired play of forward/center/whatever Chris Bosh, who mailed in a 6-for-16 Game 1 that included only five rebounds in 35-plus minutes. Bosh’s reluctance to bang is well-documented (just ask the Raptors), and James no doubt figured that if Bosh was paint-averse, he himself better some boards.

And what of Mario Chalmers? The point guard on a team that included James and Dwyane Wade doesn’t have a lot of offensive responsibilities to begin with, and after his 3-for-10 shooting performance in the first three periods of the opener, Chalmers sat most of the key fourth-period minutes in favor of Ray Allen.

It will be interesting to see if Chalmers’s minutes get trimmed even more as the series unfolds.
The Spurs, meanwhile, are fat and happy as they contemplate the prospect of winning their fifth title (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007) of the Gregg Popovich/Tim Duncan Era. Regardless of what happens they have pilfered home-court advantage, and starting Tuesday night will have three consecutive games at home.

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So the Spurs come in to Miami as 5.5-point dogs in Game 1, win it – and the number goes up a half-point for Game 2? Numbers guys must figure that the Heat’s key personnel (James, Wade) will play as many minutes as necessary to avoid falling into an 0-2 crevice. We like the Spurs to cover again.

Turnovers are the mother’s milk for Miami’s offense, and SA is just too sound fundamentally to give too many gifts. SA +6 in the second of series in which every game could go deep into the fourth period. Advise staying away from an over play on the total – both teams shot pretty well in Game 1 and the game still went under by 8 points.

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San Diego Padres (29-33) vs Colorado Rockies (33-30)

To me the San Diego Padres are one of the most counfounding teams out there. With the names they have on their roster they should probably be among the worst teams in the Majors but they are hanging in there at just below .500.

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They took yesterday’s contest against Colorado and are looking to continue to close the gap against the team just ahead of them in the standings.

Sunday June 9
Coors Field – Denver, CO
4:10PM
Probable Pitchers:
SD: Clayton Richard
COL: Juan Nicasio
Moneyline: Colorado -160, San Diego +147
Over/Under: 11
Odds From GTbets

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San Diego

It looks like the National League West could be a five team race all season long. Wouldn’t that be fun to follow in September

Padres starter Clayton Richard has to be one of the least imposing big hurlers in the Majors. This season he has been getting just hammered with an ERA that is a staggering 8.38…yet they still keep giving him the ball. In more than half of his starts he has given up 5 runs or more which is a dangerous trend when playing at the Humidor.

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There is a reason that the total is as high as it is while still looking very reachable. I don’t see how you can consider getting behind the Padres in this one.

Colorado

The Colorado Rockies have been spinning their wheels lately but their stronger than expected start has them in the division race. This series has been typical for Colorado as they won the opener when their bats came alive on Friday night but dropped yesterday’s game when the pitching on both sides decided to show up.

The Rockies have one of the best lineups in the Majors and are hard to bet against at home where their big bats like OF Carlos Gonzalez, SS Troy Tulowitzki and even OF Dexter Fowler really excel.

Rockies starter Juan Nicasio is nothing special. You could even argue that maybe his greatest skill is to be able to give up runs and keep on trucking, an underrated quality if you are going to have any success pitching in Colorado. Nicasio has had more success against the Padres than any of the other teams in the N.L. West.

He has never lost to them (2-0) and his peripherals are better than against any others. He is primed to keep that success going as his opposite today is more than shaky and the Padres lineup nothing to fear.

Over/Under: Over
Score Prediction: Colorado 10 – San Diego 4
The Rockies are a great bet to win this contest but their just isn’t much value there so I am suggesting you take the over, even with the high total.

Richard is not going to fare very well against a Rockies lineup that can mash both lefties and righties and Nicasio rarely dominates or works late in games.

Put them together and I think this total is eclipsed by the 7th after which you can tally your fantasy points.

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