Germany vs Italy Euro Cup 2012 Betting Picks + Odds

Barcelona midfielder Cesc Fabregas came up big in Spain’s opening match against the Italians, firing in the tying goal in a 1-1 draw, which salvaged a point for the defending champions in a lively encounter in Gdansk.

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When: Sunday, July 1, 2012 at 2:45 PM EST
Where: Olympic Stadium in Kiev, Ukraine
TV: ESPN
Line: Spain (+110), Italy (+300), Draw (+210)

The draw ended Spain’s 14-match winning streak in competitive matches, and now sets up a rematch between the two sides who ousted group of death survivors Portugal and Germany in the semifinals earlier this week.

The Azzuri very effective with the ball in that first encounter, keeping Spain goalkeeper Iker Casillas on his guard with quality scoring chances throughout the match. Outshooting the Spaniards in the first half.

Meanwhile, Spain tralinging by a goal, were only threatening sporadically. They never really applied the pressure needed to crack the Italians defense, until Andrés Iniesta flicked a pass through to David Silva, who sent the ball into the path of Fabregas who struck a crisp low shot underneath Italian keeper Gianluigi Buffon.

Both teams then had the chances to win the match, but could not get it done.

Italy then moved on to win one, and draw two, before a shocking 2-1 win on two first-half Mario Balotelli goals, defeating a stunned German side, while once and for all removing all doubt and proving that they deserve to be in this year’s finals.

The victory ended Germany’s 15-game winning streak in the semifinals.

La Roja on the other hand, dominated their next three opponents, outscoring them by a combined 7-1, until they ran into Portugal in the semifinals.

The Portuguese took Spain to the brink before losing a nil-nil draw in a 4-2 penalty shot showdown that kept Spain’s dream of a unique treble alive.

The man who scored the decisive penalty that night: Fabregas.

I guess that means the Italians will need to keep a lock on Fabregas, and that task will likely belong to Daniele De Rossi, who after having been deployed at the heart of a three-man defense in Italy’s first two games, was returned to his preferred role in central midfield.

The 28-year-old helped set the tone for the 2-1 victory over Germany in Warsaw, but will likely settle back into a defensive posture in the match with La Roja.

When all is said and done, this match will hinge on one deciding goal.

Matt’s Free Pick– Italy– La Nazzionale, like Spain has yet to lose in this tournament, setting up quite possibly the best Euro 2012 Final the world has seen in quite a while. And while I am impressed with Spain’s play and resilience, I am more awed with the Italians impressive defeat of Germany.

Italy outplayed Spain in the opener, but could not hang on for the win. This time I expect them to put it away.

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Germany vs Italy Euro Cup 2012 Betting Picks + Odds

Germany will look to end their major tournaments winless streak against Italy when the two meet in the second Euro 2012 semifinal matchup on Thursday’s in Warsaw.

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Die Mannschaft has yet to beat the Italians in seven previous attempts, with the most recent meeting being a 2-0 semifinal loss after extra-time at the 2006 World Cup.

The two neighbors have met just one time since, with the match ending in a draw.

When: Thursday, June 28, 2012 at 2:45 PM EST
Where: National Stadium, Warsaw
TV: ESPN
Line: Italy (+310), Germany, -0.5 (-145), Draw (+265)

However, the form shown by Joachim Loew’s side at this year’s Euro and even further back, suggests the Germans just might be on the brink of ending that horrible streak of bad luck.

Since losing to eventual winners Spain in the semifinals of the 2010 World Cup, Loew’s men have won 15 consecutive competitive fixtures, which include an undefeated run through this year’s “group of death”, which began with a quarterfinal drubbing of defensive-minded Greece.

Die Mannschaft netted four goals against the 2004 European champions in that match, and have nine goals total in the campaign.

However, Italy will pose a far greater threat than the Greeks. At least defensively.

So far, the Azzurri have conceded a meager two goals in four matches, and held Spain to a 1-1 draw in their opening fixture.

Consequently, Italy’s focus on defense has stunted their offensive efforts though, resulting in just four goals.
This is a much different Italian squad than the one that we are used to seeing in tournaments past.

Still, Italy has enough offense, especially from chief playmaker Andrea Pirlo, to test the Germans’ slightly inconsistent defense.

Nevertheless, Germany’s Manuel Neuer will be there to save them in goal if needed.

If the Italians want to advance, they will need to get out in front first, so they can settle into their stingy defensive posture.

But if they allow the Germans to open the scoring, they in trouble as Die Mannschaft will begin to control possession, forcing Italy to take chances, resulting in Germany counter attack that could deliver blow after blow.

Matt’s Free Pick– Germany–This will be a cagey match up, with the teams likely remaining scoreless through the first 45 minutes. However, I expect it will be all Germany in the second half, as they figure out a way to crack the Italians defense en route to a 3-1 win.

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Spain vs Portugal Euro Cup 2012 Betting Picks + Odds

European and world champions Spain will have to work together as a team if they want to suppress Portugal captain Cristiano Ronaldo on Wednesday in the first of two exciting Euro 2012 semifinal matches to determine who moves on to Sunday’s final.

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Euro 2012 Semi Final
When: Wednesday, June 27, 2012 at 2:45 PM EST
Where: Donbass Arena, Donetsk
TV: ESPN
Line: Portugal (+320), Spain pick, -270 (-115), Draw (+250)

Though the Spaniards have a the better record in head-to-heads between their Iberian rivals, winning 16 to Portugal’s six of 34 games played, but the record over the last 50 years is in Portugal’s favor. Portugal have lost just twice to their arch-rivals and won four out of 12 in that period.

There will be a lot of bitterness too, as the Portuguese will surely remember when Spain eliminated them during the knockout stage of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa.

However, Portugal does have the mental advantage of winning the most recent fixtur–a 4-0 thrashing in a friendly back in November 2010, a few months after Spain’s World Cup conquest.

But that’s not going to carry them very far all by itself, as Spain has proven to be a very difficult side to beat so far, alternating between a traditional attack led by striker Fernando Torres and a six-man midfield fronted by playmaker Cesc Fabregas, which picked apart France’s defense in Saturday’s 2-0 quarterfinal victory.

Defensively, Spain is playing well too, and has not conceded a goal in the knockout rounds of a major tournament–a run of eight games.

However, they are yet to face an attack that is as potent as Portugal, and is led by Ronaldo, who is back on form after failing to score in Portugal’s first two Euro 2012 matches.

The Real Madrid superstar has been able to cut loose, andis playing with less pressure and more freedom around the pitch. That has resulted in him finding his scoring touch again, netting two goals against the Dutch and one more against the Czech Republic to put Portugal into the semifinals.

Matt’s Free Pick– Spain, 2-1– While playing as a team will be a huge factor in this one. You can’t overlook the individual battles that will help decide who prevails at Donetsk’s Donbass Arena. Unfortunately, for Portugal, Spain has way too many individual weapons to counter the lone Ronaldo.

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Czech Republic vs Portugal Euro Cup 2012 Betting Picks + Odds

With Tomas Rosicky’s injury being more severe than first thought, the Czech’s chances have fallen off quite a bit. On the other hand, most didn’t really didn’t think that they would get to this point anyways, so it is like playing with the house’s money at this point.

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When: Thursday, June 21, 2012 at 2:45 PM EST
Where: Stadion Narodowy, Warsaw, Poland
TV: ESPN
Line: Czech Republic (+440), Portugal (-142), Draw (+250)

After being throttled by the Russians in their first outing of the tournament, many thought that the Russians were a lock for this slot, but that turned out to be wrong, when the Ruskies were sent packig by the tournament’s Cinderella – Greece. Mix in a couple of wins from the Czechs, and here we are.

Meanwhile, an off-kilter Portugal side took an eerily similar route to the quarterfinals. Losing their first outing to the Germans, followed up with wins over Denmark and the heavily favored Netherlands, to take second place in the “Group of Death.”

Cristiano Ronaldo was the hero to send them through against the Dutch. He took a Euro 2012 record 12 shots, sending two into the back of the net to give Portugal a 2-1 win.

As far as this match goes, Portugal is an easy favorite. Aside from the fact that they are probably just flat out better and the Czechs are without their best field player. The main thing is that Ronaldo may have finally found his club form. That could be scary for the rest of the world, starting with the Czechs.

Players to Watch:

Czech Republic – Petr Jiracek 2 Goals in Euro 2012

The man that scored a third minute goal against Greece and then the group winner against Poland is an obvious choice here. If the Republic is to make a run in this one, Jiracek will be heavily involved.

Portugal – Cristiano Ronaldo 2 Goals in Euro 2012

Another obvious choice here. After scoring twice in his last outing, many will be expecting him to score again. I would not put it past him to throw a couple into the back of the net.

Matt’s Free Pick– Portugal– With flimsy defense and subpar play by goalkeeper Petr Cech, it’s hard to see how the Czechs could hold off a wicked Ronaldo attack.

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Italy vs England Euro Cup 2012 Betting Picks + Odds

England was one of the four teams to not lose a match during group play. They of course drew in their first outing against the French, and then went on to win their last matches to take the group.

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That is not to say it was an easy road for the Three Lions, as Sweden took the English to the brink, taking a 2-1 advantage deep into the second half, before Theo Walcott made a couple of darting runs to score one himself, and then set one up for Danny Welbeck to seal that match.

When: Sunday, June 24, 2012 at 2:45 PM EST
Where: NSK Olimpijs’kyj, Kiev, Ukraine
TV: ESPN
Line: England (+175), Italy (+170), Draw (+200)

Then in his first match back with the national team, Wayne Rooney put one into the back of the net to lead England to a first place group finish.

Italy meanwhile, has arrived to the quarterfinals unbeaten in its three group matches. The difference is that the Azzurri only managed to win one match in their group, and that came against a rather unimpressive Irish squad.

If Mario Balotelli had his head on straight, they probably would have beaten the Spanish too. He had more than one clear-cut chance, but was unable to make the heady play in any circumstance. Of course, that is always the concern with the young striker.

Not many matches hinge on one player’s performance. However, this could be one of those. As good as Italy’s back line is, England will not get too many opportunities. If Mario is in good form for this one, I honestly feel Italy has what it takes to get through.

Players to Watch:

England – Wayne Rooney 1 Goals in Euro 2012

It was as if he didn’t miss a beat after his suspension. Rooney came right back into the side, and scored the group-winner against the co-hosts. I wouldn’t put it past him to grab another one in this one. If anyone were going to do it against a stout defense, it would be him.

Italy – Mario Balotelli 1 Goals in Euro 2012

Super Mario is a ridiculously talented player. If he could ever get his head in the right place, the sky would be the limit for him. His goal against the Irish proves that.

Matt’s Free Pick– Italy- A tough one to call. Italy have been excellent on offense while England has seen played sold defense, counter attacking on the other end of the pitch. Although the return of Rooney is certain to free up some of the offense, I don’t think in the end it will be enough to beat the Azzurri.

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Germany vs Greece Euro Cup 2012 Betting Picks + Odds

With the group stages completed, the second match of the 2012 European Championship quarterfinals is set to get underway, with a marquee matchup that pits one this year’s overwhelming favorites against the underdog winner from 2004.

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In a tale of two countries, Germany will look to flex its offensive muscle, against Greece’s stingy defense when the two nations wage war on Friday.

When: Friday, June 22, 2012 at 2:45 PM EST
Where: PGE Arena Gdansk
TV: ESPN
Line: Greece (+1000), Germany (-350), Draw (+450)

The Greeks will need to ignore recent history if they want to arrive at the stadium with any sort of confidence, forgetting that the Germans have dominated them in the last eight meetings.

Having not lost in those contests, Germany has won five and drew their other three battles with the Greeks.

To make matters worse, the goal differential has also left Greece shell shocked, with the Greeks scoring seven goals, while Die Mannschaft piled up 17.

Nevertheless, time heals so they say, and it has been awhile since these two squads squared off, with Germany knocking the Greeks out of contention back in March 2001 as a part of the 2002 World Cup qualifiers.

Before that, Greece’s only previous match against (West) Germany at a Euro Finals was back in 1980, when they drew 0-0 in the group stages.

If the Greeks want to reverse their losing trend, they need to stay focused on defense.

Hopefully, something they learned from their opening match against Poland, a game Greece tried to win offensively, but came up short after failing to seal the victory with a missed penalty kick.

They followed up that heartbreaking performance with a well-deserved loss to the Czech Republic, in a match they were never truly in, before finally pulling together against the Russians, when coach Fernando Santos decided to go back to a defensive game plan. And it worked.

Greece scored the only goal of the match, stunning the Russians and sending them home in the process.

It was perhaps the biggest shocker of the tournament, and you can bet Germany doesn’t want to become the next victim of an upset.

That means the Germans will need to get a strong performance from tournament darling Mario Gomez, who been using this Euro 2012 as his coming-out party to the rest of the world.

The 26-year old has netted three goals in his first three games, all of which were key in elevating the Germans to the quarterfinals.

Looking ahead to the match against Greece, it’s a good chance that Gomez will have his chances to score, providing his squad can crack Greece’s defenses.

One that will be without the counter aid of captain Giorgias Karagounis, who will be absent in this match through suspension, as he was booked for diving against Russia.

Matt’s Free Pick– Germany-- These teams are completely different from 11 years ago and Friday could show that as the Germans wrestle a close 1-0 win away from the Greeks.

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Spain vs Croatia Euro Cup 2012 Betting Picks + Odds

Both of these sides sit on four points heading into the final fixture period for group C action. With Italy sitting on two points, and a match against Ireland, these two know that a draw is not going to cut it.

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When: Monday, June 18, 2012 at 2:45 PM EST
Where: PGE Arena Gdansk
TV: ESPN
Line: Croatia (+650), Spain (-130), Draw (+165)

While the smart money will obviously be on Spain, don’t look past Croatia in this one.

Here are two teams that breezed past the Irish, and both sides had a one all draw with Italy, so in recent matches not much separated them on the score line. The way in which each match was played out is what separates them though.

In their match with Italy, Spain allowed very few chances for the opposition. The Italians struck first, but the Spanish came back within five minutes to draw even. They also had more than a couple clear-cut chances in the second half to walk away with full point.

Meanwhile, during Croatia’s version, they had to scratch and claw for every bit of that one point. Not to say they looked bad during this match, but few can bring the class to the pitch that the Spaniards do day in and day out.

Players to Watch:

Croatia – Luka Modric
I could go with any one of their forwards here, given that they have each scored twice in this competition so far. But I’m going to stick with their playmaker. Modric has been a stable force in the Croatian midfield. He has indirectly led to a couple of the goals thus far, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got one himself before it’s all said and done.

Spain – Fernando Torres
This one goes without saying really, and if Torres had the form in their first match that he carried showed in the second, Spain would be through right now. He let a couple of wide-open opportunities waste away. In the match against the Irish though, Torres was much better. Finishing two of his chances, and just looking more confident and decisive on the ball. If that guy shows up again, don’t be surprised to see Torres put another couple of goals in the back of the net.

Matt’s Free Pick– Spain– Spain is the obvious choice to win here, but I honestly like a draw in this spot with everything on the line for Croatia. They have looked way too good in this tournament so far, just to walk away in group play. Anything other than a quarterfinal appearance will be a disappointment at this stage. They may need some help from Ireland though.

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Holland vs Portugal Euro Cup 2012 Betting Picks + Odds

The last Group match between these 2 teams is a big one, as each can progress to the knockout stage or be eliminated.

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Euro 2012 – Group B
Sunday June 18th – 2:45 PM

Match Odds: Portugal 2.80 / Netherlands 2.50 / Draw 3.40
Moneyline: Portugal +180 / Netherlands +150 / Draw +240
Over/Under: 2.5 goals

If Germany beats Denmark in the other group match Holland could still progress, but they have to have a bigger goal differential than both Portugal and Denmark. Portugal can progress with a win and that would also eliminate Holland, who were the 2010 World Cup runner up.

Since the Dutch have to win and win big look for them to really push the envelope on offense facing a Portugal defense that has their issues.

Holland came into the Euro Championship having scored the most goals in the qualification stages, but so far in this competition they only have 1 goal in 2 matches.

Portugal looked like they would win easily in their last match after going up 2-0 facing Denmark, but the Danes came back and Portugal needed a late goal to escape with a win. The Portuguese have not played the cross well in this competition and that is a big concern for their defense.

Pepe is the central defender for Portugal and he will have to play well in this match. He not only has to play good defense, but since the Dutch will attack from the opening whistle he has to begin the counter attack when given chances.

Robin Van Persie scored the most goals in the England Premier League this season and has scored the lone goal in the Euro for Holland. He has to find his game in this match and be THE guy on offense. MF Wesley Sneijder has to also help out on offense and feed Van Persie the ball up front.

Cristiano Ronaldo missed some pretty easy chances against Denmark and the Real Madrid FW must pressure the Holland defense in this match. If the Dutch can shut him down they have a much better chance to win.

Netherlands’ Euro 2012 Matches

June 9th Denmark 1, Netherlands 0
June 13th Germany 2, Netherlands 1

Portugal’s Euro 2012 Matches

June 9th Germany 1, Portugal 0
June 13th Portugal 3, Denmark 2

Jason’s Pick: I think Holland is the better team and they have played in high-pressure matches before. I think Van Persie will come alive in this match and the Dutch will not be stopped, as they will win by a score of 3-1.

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Sweden vs. England Euro Cup 2012 Betting Picks + Odds

Two sides that have a deep history of playing tightly contested matches will square off in a second Group D clash, as Sweden takes on England on Friday with three crucial points on the line.

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When: Friday, June 15, 2012 at 2:30 PM EST
Where: Olympic Stadium in Kyiv, Ukraine
TV: ESPN 3
Line: Sweden, (+222), England -0.5 (+108), Draw (+213)

England finally tasted victory for the first time in 43 years against Sweden back in a November friendly, but has yet to beat the Swedes competitively since 1968–a 3-1 win at Wembley Stadium.

The Scandinavians have never lost a competitive game against the English with their seven previous encounters with the teams’ last three competitive match-ups all producing draws.

However, the Swedes looked a bit stunned after their 2-1 opening match loss to Ukraine, so it’s possible that England will find a psychologically beaten side that could help end their cause.

Already a below-average side, the Swedes failed to use their one above-average weapon in Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Opting to use Ibrahimovic as a defensive midfielder, dropping back to deliver the short pass to an inefficient Christian Wilhelmson and Johan Elmander who could not find the back of the Ukraine net.

Still, Sweden’s lone goal did eventually come from Ibrahimovic, who spent most of his playing time too far from goal to be any more of a sustained threat.

Unfortunately, he will likely find himself in a similar role against England, as Sweden will face a relentless English attack, which was able to secure their first point in tournament play with a 1-1 draw with France on Monday.

Considering England was without star striker Wayne Rooney, the result was encouraging, with youngsters Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Danny Welbeck providing the offensive attack for boss Roy Hodgson’s side.

The entire team worked well, and veteran leader Steven Gerrard was the key player as he dictated play with his direct long balls.
That’s all a spot of good news, as Rooney will serve the last of his two-match ban on Friday, before returning to the side for England’s final group D game against Ukraine next week.

For this one, though, Hodgson will hope plan B works well again.

Hodgson also hopes that his understanding of the Swedes game plan can help him, as he managed Swedish club sides Orebro and Malmo earlier in his career.

Matt’s Free Pick– England, 1-0– The Swedes have not utilized Ibrahimovic enough, and they need to win here if they want to qualify for the knock-out round. Nevertheless, England will be equally determined to take the points, as they hope to clinch their bid for the final rounds before they must face a dangerous Ukraine side.

I expect Ibrahimovic to be more of a factor in this one for Sweden, but imagine Hodgson is clever enough to mark the best striker in the world, letting Sweden try to dictate play without their main man.

Unless by some miracle, an English victory should be expected.

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Spain vs Ireland Euro Cup 2012 Betting Picks + Odds

In what looks like the biggest mismatch thus far, action from Group C of the UEFA Euro 2012 tournament continues with the Republic of Ireland looking to rebound after being blown out by Croatia when they take on the defending champions Spain on Thursday.

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When: Thursday, June 14, 2012 at 2:45 PM EST
Where: PGE Arena Gdansk
TV: ESPN
Line: Spain, -1.5 (-509), Ireland (+1010), Draw (+440)

The Irish are massive underdogs in this match, and find themselves teetering on the brink of elimination after losing 3-1 to Croatia in their opening match.

Now they must find a way to get points from both of their remaining matches, starting with the Spaniards and then the Italians. No small feat to say the least.

So being outgunned, what’s the game plan?

Well for starters, the Micks will want to keep the game tight, playing a cagey style on both sides of the ball in an effort to slow down Spain’s potent attack. They will also want to stay away from giving up free kicks anywhere near their end, which could result in goals off set pieces. So staying out of foul trouble will be crucial.

The attack will need to be well-defined, quick, and not allowing room for a Spanish counter attack. That means the trio of Aiden McGeady, Damien Duff and skipper Robbie Keane, will need to try to take advantage of a weakened Spanish back line early, so the side might afford to settle into a defensive posture.

Finally, goalkeeper Shay Given needs to have a top-notch performance if coach Giovanni Trapatton’s side wants to stay alive.

While this all may sound like an impossible strategy, let’s not forget that this high-octane Spain side was forced to settle for a 1-1 draw against Italy in its opening match.

Call it dim-witted, or daring, the move by boss Vincente Del Bosque to sit Fernando Torres and Fernando Llorente, in order to use Cesc Fabregas up front in their match against the Italians, backfired.

The plan saw minimal success, nearly costing the side a critical loss, until Spain scored the equalizer three minutes after conceding the opening goal.

I am sure the Irish will not see that plan again, but then again you never know.

Meanwhile, the one area of concern for the Spanish going forward is their defense. Gerard Pique, Sergio Busquets and Sergio Ramos played an awful match against Italy, and although they will be up against a much weaker Irish side, they will need to play that much better if Spain have plans on making history.

Matt’s Free Pick– Spain– If Spain plays as it did against Italy, this could get dicey. However, I expect them to learn from their lack of eagerness in their opening match that almost ended in defeat. Look for Spain to get on the board early, en route to a 3-1 win.

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