Week 1 Free Picks 2013

The college football season is still about three months away, but it is never too early to start looking at how the season will get going. Alabama won the BCS Championship again last year. Changes are coming to the BCS in the year ahead, and it should be an exciting season.

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Let’s take a look at ten of the best games on the week one schedule! BetOnline has pointspreads listed for week one games, so all lines shown below are from BetOnline.

Thursday August 29, 2013

North Carolina vs. South Carolina (-9.5)

These teams haven’t met in a while, but Larry Fedora’s Tar Heels will take on the Gamecocks in game one this year. Steve Spurrier’s team did some special things last year, and much will be expected of them again this year. Watch out for Jadeveon Clowney!  Prediction: South Carolina 31 North Carolina 20

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt (-2.5)

Two teams on the rise in the very difficult SEC will square off in week one. Mississippi found a great coach in Hugh Freeze, and the job James Franklin has done at Vanderbilt has been tremendous. Ole Miss has the edge on offense while Vanderbilt has a strong defense.  Prediction: Vanderbilt 27 Ole Miss 24

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USC (-23) vs. Hawaii

USC will have a new look this year without Matt Barkley under center. The Trojans have had some great recruiting classes, so they should be good, but there will be a lot of youth on the field. Hawaii was really down in the dumps last year. Can Norm Chow turn things around? Prediction: USC 45 Hawaii 20

Friday August 30, 2013

Texas Tech (-2) vs. SMU

It’s the start of a new era at Texas Tech. Kliff Kingsbury will be the new man in charge this year for the Red Raiders. The players seem to like his style, and the Red Raiders have quite a bit of talent. SMU is never a team to take lightly with June Jones at the helm. This should be a great game.  Prediction: SMU 24 Texas Tech 21

Saturday August 31, 2013

Temple vs. Notre Dame (-27)

Temple has had some pretty decent teams in the last few years, but this year’s team doesn’t look like they will be very good. Notre Dame lost a lot of key players, but Brian Kelly definitely has this team headed in the right direction. This should be a mismatch. Prediction: Notre Dame 38 Temple 10

Alabama (-17.5) vs. Virginia Tech

This is the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game in Atlanta. Can anyone in college football keep up with Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide? They are stacked once again. Frank Beamer’s Hokies should be good, but they definitely aren’t on the same level. I won’t be shocked if the Hokies keep it a little closer than expected. Prediction: Alabama 34 Virginia Tech 20

Georgia vs. Clemson (-1)

This is probably the best game of the first week. ABC will broadcast this one in primetime. This is the first of a two-game series between two schools that don’t like each other very much. Tajh Boyd is a special quarterback, but he won’t have the same weapons on the outside this year. Georgia is out to prove a point here.  Prediction: Georgia 28 Clemson 24

LSU (-5.5) vs. TCU

TCU has done some great things over the last few years. The Horned Frogs were solid in their first year in the Big 12 last season. The LSU Tigers defense should be amazing this year, and that makes them a favorite in this one. Prediction: LSU 24 TCU 17

Sunday September 1, 2013

Ohio vs. Louisville (-16)

No one made a bigger statement last January than the Louisville Cardinals. Behind star quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, the Cardinals walloped Florida in a BCS shocker. Ohio is one of the best teams in the MAC, so this may be a little closer than expected. Prediction: Louisville 34 Ohio 24

Florida State (-7) vs. Pittsburgh

Clint Trickett is the favorite to replace E.J. Manuel as the quarterback for the Seminoles, but it’s still a wide open competition for Florida State. Pittsburgh was up and down in 2012, but they have a good coach running the program. Prediction: Florida State 24 Pittsburgh 20

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2013-2014 BCS National Championship Outlook

In the ever-growing movement of college football – whether you look at TV dollars, conference re-alignment or points on the scoreboard – 2013-14 promises to be another enthralling season in the race for BCS hardware. .

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After Alabama’s thorough beat-down of storied Notre Dame in the title game last week, head coach Nick Saban has further cemented a legacy, and the Tide look like they’re not going anywhere.

Running back T.J. Yeldon should continue to be a force in Tuscaloosa, and though ’Bama will lose a lot from their formidable offensive line, Saban can re-load a roster like few can. Alabama is probably still in the driver’s seat in 2013.

You definitely cannot discount Ohio State for next season. In his first season patrolling the sideline, head coach Urban Meyer guided the Buckeyes to an unbeaten record. OSU wasn’t allowed to participate in the conference title or in bowl season due to NCAA sanctions, but they should be back with a charge next year. Dynamic pivot Braxton Miller should give defenders a collective aneurysm.

Ohio State should also bring the gnarly defense its program has become renowned for.

Oregon and its blazing speed will also be right in the mix. Starting QB Marcus Mariota will just be a sophomore next year, and RB/WR De’Anthony Thomas should be back to terrorize Pac-12 opponents. Speedy Heisman candidate Kenjon Barner will be gone, but the Ducks have carved out a major recruiting pipeline on the West Coast and you bet head coach Chip Kelly (who isn’t bolting to the NFL, after all) will grab the players he needs to stay prominent.

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With the announced return of starting QB Tajh Boyd, don’t discount the Clemson Tigers, either. The Tigers showed they can pile up points with every prolific offense in the country in 2012, and Boyd was at the helm for all of it. Speedy wideouts and an athletic defense further bolsters the orange-clad Palmetto Staters.

Look out especially for WR Sammy Watkins, who will be a junior in 2013. He should be catching a plethora of deep bombs.

With the unprecedented awarding of the Heisman Trophy to freshman pivot Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M re-emerged on the national radar in a hurry (and with perfect timing to, with its migration to the SEC). Manziel should again lead the pack next season and will be a front-runner to win back-to-back Heismans.

Big WR Mike Evans was just a freshman this year, and he was arguably “Johnny Football’s” favorite target. He’ll be a key piece once again in ’13. Also, no one was talking much about the A&M defense, but they finished just out of the Top 25 nationally in points allowed; they return a lot of key pieces.

Time for some darkhorses, perhaps? At 33/1 odds, I like Michigan to take another step forward under Brady Hoke, even with the departure of all-world athlete Denard Robinson. Field general Devin Gardner showed he can fill the QB position admirably, and Hoke has been reeling in some deep recruiting classes for a couple of years now.

If pint-sized WR Jeremy Gallon returns for his senior season, he’ll be a primary target for Gardner. College football guru Phil Steele picked Michigan at the top of his list of teams to increase their win totals next season. I think he’s right on the money. It would be good for the Big Ten Conference if Michigan and Ohio State could duke it out for top dog once again.

Finally, I think Georgia is a good pick at 28/1. The Bulldogs narrowly missed out on an upset of Alabama in the SEC Championship, and with some of the dynamic young players the ‘Dawgs have, they should be very exciting. Georgia is set in the backfield with RBs Todd Gurley (maybe the best Georgia RB since Herschel Walker?

Dare I say it?) and Keith Marshall. Malcolm Mitchell is a great WR, and QB Christian LeMay will be ready to step in if Aaron Murray decides not to return for his senior season.

I like Georgia to win the SEC East, and after that who knows?

Odds to win the 2013-2014 BCS National Championship

Alabama                       5/1
Oregon                          8/1
Ohio State                     17/2
LSU                              12/1
Texas A&M                   12/1
Florida                          14/1
Florida State                  14/1
Clemson                       22/1
Louisville                       22/1
Notre Dame                   22/1
Miami                           25/1
Oklahoma                     25/1
South Carolina               25/1
Georgia                         28/1
Nebraska                      28/1
Stanford                        30/1
Texas                           30/1
Michigan                       33/1
USC                             33/1
Oklahoma State             40/1
UCLA                            40/1
Mississippi State           50/1
Wisconsin                     50/1
TCU                              66/1
Virginia Tech                 66/1
Boise State                   75/1
Michigan State              75/1
North Carolina                75/1
Oregon State                 75/1
Arkansas                      100/1
Arizona                         100/1
Kansas State                100/1
Rutgers                         100/1
Tennessee                    100/1
Washington                   100/1
Cincinnati                      125/1
BYU                             150/1
Pittsburgh                     150/1
West Virginia                 150/1
Auburn                          200/1
Georgia Tech                 200/1
Iowa                              200/1
Missouri                        250/1
Boston College              300/1
California                       300/1
South Florida                 300/1

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BCS Championship – Alabama vs. Notre Dame Gambling Prediction & Bowl Preview

Crimson Tide vs. Fighting Irish College Football Spread/Handicapping

Well it is finally here.  Two big brand names but still debate over whether these are the two most deserving schools (at least for me).  Probably a defensive battle but with so much time to prepare who knows

#2 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) vs.  #1 Notre Dame (12-0)
Monday January 7
Sun Life Stadium – Miami, FL
8:30
Moneyline:  Alabama -345, Notre Dame +315 at SportsBettingOnline.ag
Spread:  Alabama -9.5
O/U:  40.5

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Alabama

Alabama is probably the most talented team in the nation.  They always do well in recruiting rankings and now that mock drafts are the rage they are looking good there too.

The amazing thing is that they almost didn’t make it here.  Johnny Heisman knocked them down earlier in the season and the Bulldogs nearly had their number in the SEC Championship.

Both of those  teams have a nice mix of offensive talent to challenge their defense…The defense gets a lot of praise but the offense is very good too – they averaged 38ppg.

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Its not flashy but the best offensive line in football paved the way for two 1000 yard rushers, Eddie Lacy and freshman T.J. Yeldon both averaged 6.5 yards per carry.

That line also gave QB A.J. McCarron time to complete nearly 70% of his passes.  He makes few mistakes too (just 3 interceptions on the season)…Despite the one loss the Crimson Tide are heavy favourites at -9.5.

Alabama has been a poor bet this season at just 6-7 ATS including 1-4 ATS down the stretch.

This could be a tight defensive struggle but it could also be another examples of Bama’s recent dominance.

Notre Dame

The last and only undefeated team in the nation is Notre Dame.

Technically you can’t argue with their selection to the Championship game but for me they don’t pass the sight test for me.  Their regular season had some nice wins but also some head scratchers, I think only one of their conquests, Stanford, lived up to expectations this season…

Statistically the defense has been a monster with linebacker Manti Te’o gaining lots of attention and finishing second in the Heisman race.

Its the offense led by QB Everett Golson that has everyone questioning this team.

They run the ball alright and have QB Tommy Rees as closer but it is hardly a good offensive team that is likely to struggle against Alabama…In addition to having strong defenses another trait the Irish have in common is a poor ATS record, just 7-6.  That has been primarily because of their poor offensive showings.

It affected them as favourites with big numbers but I think it will do the same in this one too.

They might not be able to keep this one close.

Spread Pick:  Alabama -9.5
O/U Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:

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Golden Flashes vs Red Wolves NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping

This year’s GoDaddy.com Bowl features a talented Sun Belt Conference team locking horns with a MAC outfit coming off a memorable campaign.

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GoDaddy.com Bowl
Kent State Golden Flashes (11-1) vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3)
Sunday, Jan. 6, 2013, 9 pm EST
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile AL
Betting Information Courtesy of Sportsbook.ag
Kent St +150, Arkansas St -150
Kent St +3.5, Arkansas St -3.5
Over/Under: 61

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The Arkansas State Red Wolves hope to use thriving skill-position players to find success in coastal Alabama. Quarterback Ryan Aplin and RB David Oku – a transfer from Tennessee – spearhead the Wolves’ offensive attack. The two players are two of the conference’s premier offensive threats; Aplin is a two-time Sun Belt Player of the Year and Oku finished second in the Sun Belt with 1,024 yards and 15 TDs. Aplin will be playing in the last game of his collegiate career.

For Kent State’s part, January 6^th is a special opportunity, as the Golden Flashes have never won a bowl game. Kent’s last appearance was in the Tangerine Bowl in 1972, when current Alabama head coach Nick Saban played defensive back for the Flashes.

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Coincidentally, both head coaches of these programs are bolting for new jobs in 2013; Arkansas State’s Gus Malzahn is off to Auburn, while Kent State’s Darrell Hazell is going to Purdue. But this game is important enough for Hazell to hang around and try and procure the Flashes’ their first ever postseason victory.

If the Flashes are going to do it, they’ll need to ride the fantastic running duo of Dri Archer and Trayion Durham. The pair have combined for 2,600 rush yards and 29 TDs. Senior pivot Spencer Keith – a native of Little Rock, Arkansas, as it turns out – has led Kent State responsibly, if not prolifically. Hazell and Kent State recognize where it finds success, and it’s with the ground game. The Flashes finished the season ranked 16^th in the nation in rush yards (228.3 yards per game) and that effectiveness has led to them finishing in the top third in the country in points for.

It was almost a dream season for Kent State, but the Flashes lost a two-OT heartbreaker to Northern Illinois in the MAC title game. The Huskies finished with a #15 ranking and a spot in a BCS bowl, but the Flashes must simply look at the positives of an excellent overall season. The Flashes were undefeated in regular season MAC play; a bowl victory in the GoDaddy.com Bowl would certainly erase the depressing memories from the conference championship.

The Red Wolves also run and score with the best of them, with their only real slip-ups on the year coming against big boys like Oregon and Nebraska. A fluky loss to Western Kentucky left the Wolves with three losses on the campaign and one conference blemish. Clearly, the Flashes will have to do everything they can to bottle up Aplin and Oku.

This should definitely be a competitive game, but I just see too much enthusiasm coming from the Kent State sideline – given the circumstances and historical implications – for the Flashes to let this opportunity slip by the wayside.

Score Prediction: Kent State 31, Arkansas State 28 (OT)

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Panthers vs Rebels College Football Spread/Handicapping

I don’t know how things got weird and a game of this calibre got pushed to this late in the bowl calendar.  I do know that there is nothing to like about it.  SEC vs BIg East is not a good matchup in this one.

Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6) vs Ole Miss Rebels (6-6)
Saturday January 5
Legion Field – Birmingham, AL
1:00PM
Moneyline:  Ole Miss -160, Pittsburgh +140 at SportsBettingOnline.ag
Spread:  Ole Miss -3.5
O/U:  52

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Pittsburgh

The Panthers needed to win their final two games to become bowl eligible and they did.  In fact they have gone the whole season on two game streaks, losing then winning, creating their current symetrical 6-6 record.

Mostly they are getting it done on the defensive side of the ball as the Panthers are inconsistent on offense at best…

At running back they have a difference maker in Ray Graham.  The pint sized senior finally broke through with a 1000 yard season – but with his worst average per carry.  He is tougher than he looks and plays well when the team wins.

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QB Tino Sunseri has taken a lot of heat over the years but he put up some nice numbers as a senior too including a TD/INT ratio of 19/2…Pitts was 7-4 ATS this season including 5-1 the last two months of the season.

I think the only way you can like this team is as the underdog because you just can’t rely on them too much.  That extra half point provides some value though.

Ole Miss

Ole Miss also got their bowl qualifying win in the last week of the season, beating in-state rival Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.  They play in the toughest division in college football and held their own this year, losses to Vanderbilt, LSU and Texas A&M were all by 6 points or less.

This isn’t  a great team but with any other schedule they are probably 8-4…

Nothing in particular stands out about Ole Miss talent wise.  QB Bo Wallace is alright but throws it too many times to the wrong guys.  Former starting QB Randall Mackey gets used running the ball, at receiver and sometimes even throwing the ball too.

It is that kind of versatility that might come in handy with a lot of extra time to prepare…

Though just 6-6 Ole Miss has been a very profitable 9-3 ATS.  This is a battle tested team that even though it is not super talented seems to play above its head.

Coach Hugh Freeze is doing a better job than you realize in his first year and it should end with a bowl victory.

Spread Pick:  Ole Miss -3.5
O/U Pick:  Under
Score Prediction:  Ole Miss 24 – Pittsburgh 17

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Texas A&M Aggies vs OU Sooners NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping

Both Texas A&M and Oklahoma ended the season hot winning 5 straight games and these teams are old rivals from in the Big 12. Johnny Manziel won the Heisman for the Aggies this season and became the first ever freshman to do so.

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No. 9 Aggies vs No. 11 Sooners
Venue/ Stadium: Cowboys Stadium, ARLINGTON, TX
Time/Date: 8 PM EST Friday, January 4, 2013
NFL Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: OFF
Spread: texas A&M
Over/Under:  71.5

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No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners Preview

However, the Sooners have a high scoring team and their pass D is also solid so this game may be a tight one. NCAAF lines have Texas A&M as 5-point favorites with a total of 71.5.

To end the season Texas A&M easily beat Missouri 59-29 while Oklahoma had a tougher time in their 24-17 win over TCU.

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This season Texas A&M is 7-5 with an Over/Under record of 4-6 and Oklahoma is 6-6 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 7-4.

Manziel had a monster season with 3,419 passing yards and he was the team’s leading rusher with 1,181 yards. Obviosly he is the guy the OU defense has to key on. The Aggies have 2 legit receivers in Mike Evans (75 rec 1,022 yards 5 TD) and Ryan Swope (64 rec 809 yards 7 TD) and they will be put to a test in this game since the Sooners have a good pass defense ranking 26th in the nation.

The Sooners’ run defense has had problems this season ranking 80th in the nation and they not only have to deal with Manziel, but RB Ben Malena (752 yards 7 TD).

Oklahoma has a solid offense and a great passing attack led by QB Landry Jones, who passed for 29 TD and almost tallied 4,000 passing yards. Kenny Stills and Justin Brown are his main WR’s, but OU has 4 players that had at least 570 receiving yards on the season. The deep WR corps and Jones will be facing an Aggies’ pass defense that only ranks 80th in the nation.

The Aggies are better at defending the run than the pass and RB’s Damien Williams, who rushed for 115 yards in the last win of the season over TCU, and Brennan Clay are the main RB’s for the Sooners. These guys can really take some pressure off Jones if they can help move the chains with their legs.

In some betting trends for this Cotton Bowl game Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 bowl games, and they have an Under record of 6-1 in their last 7 games playing a team that has a winning record.

Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. SEC, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games, and they have an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 games playing a team that has a winning record.

Jason’s Pick: The Aggies left the Big 12 for the SEC this season and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against OU.

However, all of those games were without Manziel under center. Still, I like the Sooners in this game and I think Jones will end his Oklahoma career with a win, as OU will not only cover in this game, but win.

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Wildcats vs Ducks NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping

The Oregon Ducks and the Kansas State Wildcats will meet Jan. 3 in what might be the most highly anticipated bowl game outside of the BCS Championship. At one point it was presumed that this was going to be the national title game, but with both teams falling on the same day in November, they now find themselves facing off in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl.

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No. 4 UO Ducks (11-1) vs. No. 5 KSU (11-1)
January 3, 2012
University of Phoenix Stadium, GLENDALE, ARIZ.
8:30 PM ET
Moneyline: Oregon -335, Kansas State +275 GTBets.eu
Spread: Oregon -9
O/U: 75.5

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Each team knows how to put points on the board, and with two dual-threat quarterbacks leading the way, this one should get a ton of attention come game time.

Oregon Ducks

The Oregon Ducks will enter this game as the second-highest scoring team in the country. They average 50.8 points per game, and they’re led by senior tailback Kenjon Barner.

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The running back helped lead the team to 323.3 yards per game, which was good enough for third in the country, but all-purpose player DeAnthony Thomas and quarterback Marcus Mariota helped the cause with their rushing attacks.

The over/under is high on this for a bowl game, and while both coaching staffs have had a month to prepare for the other team’s offense, you have to assume a lot of points will be scored.

What makes Oregon special, though, is that they’re not one-dimensional. Their defense held opponents to just 22 points per game, they led the nation in interceptions and their point margin was in impressive 28.8 points per game in their favor.

This team has weapons all over both sides of the field, and they’ll look to win their second BCS bowl game in a row come Jan. 3

Kansas State Wildcats

The Kansas State Wildcats have a lot in common with the Oregon Ducks. Offensively, they’re a run-heavy group who scores a ton of points. They post 40.7 points per game, which is good enough for 10th in the nation, and they have the 32nd-best ground game.

They’re led by dual-threat quarterback Colin Klein, who was considered a Heisman candidate before posting just 24 points against an awful Baylor defense.

Defensively, Kansas State was very good against some high-caliber offenses. They held their opponents to just 21.1 points per contest, and their specialty was defending the run.

The Wildcats struggled stopping the pass, as they were just 93rd in the country in pass defense, but against an Oregon team that thrives on the ground, they’ll stick to what got them where they are today.

The difference between these two teams is that Kansas State hasn’t faced a defense of Oregon’s caliber, whereas Oregon saw what great defenses look like in 2012. You know that each coach has spent a lot of time preparing for the opposing offense, but Kansas State better hope they’re ready for a defense that is going to put pressure on Klein from all different directions.

This game looks extremely even on paper, but if Oregon proves to be the better-prepared team, they’ll earn themselves a solid victory in Glendale, Ariz.

Trends

• Ducks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
• Ducks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
• Ducks are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
• Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 non-conference games.
• Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games on grass.
• Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games overall.

O/U Pick: Over 75.5
Score Prediction: Oregon 45 – Kansas St. 35

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Crimson Tide vs Fighting Irish NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping

In a sport that’s had so much change, scandal and upheaval over a short period of time, this clash for the National Title is a welcome surge of nostalgia for the college football traditionalist. These two historical football powers will meet on the strength of defense and motivation.

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BCS National Championship Game
Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0)
Monday, Jan. 7, 2013, 8:30 pm EST
Sun Life Stadium, Miami FL
Betting Information Courtesy of Bovada
Alabama -360, Notre Dame +300
Alabama -10, Notre Dame +10
Over/Under: 41.5

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If you wanted, it has all the makings of a hokie sports movie.

In all seriousness, Alabama versus the Golden Domers should be an exciting match-up. Notre Dame has a tenacious defense and has shown up to play every week, but the Irish have not played a team as talented as Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide.

However, there is only one unbeaten team playing in this game and it isn’t Alabama.

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Head coach Brian Kelly and his troops deserve a full serving of credit for reminding the hordes of Irish fans around the country what it feels like to win.

Notre Dame’s outstanding defense is led by Heisman candidate LB Manti Te’o and DLs Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix. While Alabama’s “D” might be lacking the individual superstar, it is a remarkably disciplined unit that play brilliantly as a team. The Tide seldom over-commit or miss tackles or blow coverages.

There is also crazy-beefy (320 lbs) DT Jesse Williams to clog the middle and allow Alabama’s athletic back seven to flow to the ball.

It definitely seems like two similarly immovable forces converging on southern Florida.

On offense, Alabama has a phenomenal running back duo with fellow 1,000+ yard rushers Eddie Lacy and tantalizing freshman T.J. Yeldon. Tide field general A.J. McCarron gets points for experience and moxie, if nothing else.

The offensive success is absolutely buttressed by what is probably the best offensive line in the country, led by center Barrett Jones.

For Notre Dame, sophomore QB Everett Golson has done his job admirably. He is assisted by his RB duo of Theo Riddick and explosive Cierre Wood, along with TE Tyler Eifert. However, the Irish’s aggressive defense definitely makes these players look better.

Regardless, Golson is a revelation because finding a reliable pivot in South Bend was a crucial priority going into the season.

The Tide had their one slip-up against Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M, and they also had a close call in the SEC Championship against Georgia. Other than that, though, the Tide made it look excessively easy. Refreshingly, both of these teams have proven that a strong defense and run game can still be successful at the college level.

I know non-SEC college fans are getting sick of hearing this, but it’s undeniable that Alabama is consistently squaring off against tougher opponents than teams from other conferences (including Independent Notre Dame).

If the Irish can pull off a victory against Alabama, however, it will silence all of the constant SEC bragging.

The Irish are an underdog in this game, and despite having an unbeaten season – their best since 1988 – the Golden Domers are rightfully an underdog.

Score Prediction: Alabama 27, Notre Dame 12

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Ducks vs Wildcats NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping

If you’re looking for a match-up that showcases the modern incarnation of the college game, you needn’t look any further than the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl. This BCS clash pits two high-octane offenses and two Heisman candidates against each other.

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Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Oregon Ducks (11-1) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (11-1)
Thursday, Jan. 3, 2013,
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale AZ
Betting Information Courtesy of Sportsbook.ag
Oregon -330, Kansas State +270
Oregon -9, Kansas State +9
Over/Under: 75.5

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Oregon RB Kenjon Barner and Kansas State pivot Collin Klein will lead their prolific offenses in the desert on January 3. These players were dominant throughout the season for different reasons; Barner showcases blazing speed – he racked up 1,624 yards and 22 TDs to his name, including an unfathomable 321 yard, five-TD performance versus USC – while Klein uses his battering-ram dual threat skills to bring Kansas State back to national relevance.

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Oregon’s modus operandi has been speed from the get-go. In addition to Barner, freshman QB Marcus Mariota is an electric athlete and RB DeAnthony Thomas provides some nice depth. The Wildcats have been all about Klein and RB John Hubert, who finished with 890 yards and 15 majors.

Until recently, this could have been a preview of the National Championship game. Both programs were unbeaten and, after an Alabama loss to a Johnny Football-led Texas A&M, looked slated to play in Miami. But Oregon suffered an OT loss to Stanford in the second-last week of the regular season and K-State lost a shootout to Baylor in the same week. As a result, the Fiesta Bowl should be an epic showdown.

Klein offers a Tim Tebow-esque level of passing adequacy with scrambling wonder and it’s a skill-set that has been effective against virtually every opponent in 2012.

Yet, the Ducks really bring game-changing speed to the table. The Stanford loss was brutally close and seemed like an aberration. Up until that point, Oregon had been blowing opponents out of the water. While the Wildcats averaged 40.7 points per game for the season, they have been stymied somewhat to finish the season.

That needs to be a telling statistic as far as the Ducks are considered, because Oregon is susceptible to getting gouged on the ground (giving up an average of nearly 190 yards per).

If Oregon gets its fast-paced offensive attack going early, it will be hard for Kansas State to keep up. The Wildcats will need to match Oregon score-for-score and cannot afford to get too far behind; with the exception of the Stanford game, Oregon has been able to assert its will offensively all season long.

Consequently, Oregon head coach Chip Kelly is a surefire NFL head coaching candidate in a sport that is rapidly turning into a high-scoring entertainment vehicle reminiscent of basketball. But I digress.

Klein is a special individual and a top-shelf college talent, for sure, but K-State has yielded 76 points in its last two games.

Oregon’s offense is more dangerous offensively than Baylor or Texas (the Wildcats’ last two opponents), so the Wildcats must get that trend turned around in a hurry if they want to leave Phoenix as Fiesta Bowl champs.

Score Prediction: Oregon 45, Kansas State 35

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Cardinals vs Gators College Football Spread/Handicapping

Many are expecting the Gators to stomp (and chomp) on Louisville but lets remember that as good as they are on defense they are offensively challenged.  Louisville is solid all around and I think this game can be a pleasant surprise.

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#21 Louisville Cardinals (10-2) vs #3 Florida Gators (11-1)
Wednesday January 2
Mercedes Superdome – New Orleans, LA
8:30PM
Moneyline:  Florida -525, Louisville +450 at SportsBettingOnline.ag
Spread:  Florida -13.5
O/U:  45.5

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Louisville

The Cardinals had visions of a marvelous season but struggled down the stretch.  

After winning their first 9 games they lost two in a row before beating Rutgers in the defacto Big East title game.  I do think this is a pretty good Louisville team but other than wins against Rutgers and Cincinnati their best victory is against North Carolina, not exactly a scary resume…The biggest advantage the Cardinals has is at the most important position on the field.  

QB Teddy Bridgewater, a Florida kid, had a brilliant sophomore season.   

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Don’t let his efficiency numbers trick you into believing he is not a fantastic athlete though, a quality he will need as he evades a harassing Florida defense.  

Their attack is balanced: two 700 yard rushers and 5 receivers with 30 or more catches…All season long I have been fading the Gators because of their offense.  

In this case that means backing Louisville which at +13.5 looks like a very good bet to me.  Why not buy an extra half point for peace of mind though.

Florida

Florida has backed their way into the BCS this season.  They finished second in their division to Georgia who fell behind them in the BCS standings after nearly beating Alabama.  

Thank goodness this screwy system is almost behind us.  Florida is good though.  Their offense teases but their defense is third in the nation in points allowed.  They have also beaten 4 teams that at times were ranked in the Top 10…

Those wins are amazing because their offense has been so pedestrian.  

They are ranked 103 in the nation in yards, a stunning decline for a team remembered for the Fun and Gun and Tim Tebow.  The lone bright spot on offense has been running back Mike Gillislee who has thrived as a senior eclipsing his career rushing totals in just one season as the starter…

The Gators lack of offensive punch has stymied bettors this season.  

5 times they have been favourites 17.5 points or more and they are just 1-4 ATS in those games despite winning all of them outright.  

I worry that another chalky performance is in the Cards at the Sugar Bowl.

Spread Pick:  Louisville +13.5
O/U Pick:  Over
Score Prediction:  Florida 27 – Louisville 24

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