San Antonio vs Memphis Handicapping

If the Memphis Grizzlies proved anything in their Game 2 loss to the San Antonio Spurs, it’s that despite what many of us may have thought, they Grizz indeed are capable of coming from behind despite their deliberate pound-the-ball-in-low offense.

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Western Conference finals
Memphis Grizzlies (0-2) at San Antonio Spurs (2-0)
Saturday, May 25
FedExForum, Memphis
9 p.m. EST
Spread – Grizzlies -5.5
O/U – 177.5
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Now the trick is playing well enough early in Game 3 tonight so they don’t have to do it.

The Grizzlies are facing the NBA’s version of Armageddon tonight. Everyone on the planet is painfully aware that if they spit the bit tonight and go down 3-0 in the series, it will be game and set, with match knocking hard on the door.

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“We’re down 0-2,” Memphis coach Lionel Hollins said after Game 3, explaining things to everyone who already knew them. “We’ve got to go home and take care of business at home. It’s not going to be easy, but that’s where we are.”

Pararphrasing Hyman Roth said in “Godfather II,” this is the business the Grizzlies have chosen.

The mid-season trade of scorer Rudy Gay meant that the Grizz would go full-bore defense, and while it’s gotten them to the NBA’s version of the Final Four, there are questions whether Memphis has enough offense to make this a series against a fundamentally sound Spurs team.

In 9 periods of play so far (including one 5-minute overtime), San Antonio has dominated five periods, Memphis one (fourth period of Game 2) and three have pretty much been played to a draw.

Memphis is hoping that guard Tony Allen will step up his game a bit. Things can get real ugly real quick when Allen is on the court, which is one reason the Celtics let him go as a free agent a few years ago.

The Spurs decided to let Allen get some open looks in Game 2 and the result was a 2-for-11 shooting performance that reminded absolutely no one of Craig Hodges.

In fact, in the 52 total minutes Allen has been on the court in the two games, the Grizzlies have been outscored by a total of 32 points. Ouch. It’s doubtful that Allen will be seeing any double-teams, but he can figure on getting some good looks early.

If he doesn’t knock down a few in the first quarter, the Spurs might be seeing a lot more of Jerryd Barless and a lot less of Allen.

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The teams haven’t played for four days, which is like catnip for the Spurs’ veterans. San Antonio has played four playoff games this season in which it has had more than one day between games, and the Spurs are 3-1 overall and 3-1 ATS in those games.

We like Gregg Popovich to figure out what went wrong during the Grizz 4th-quarter run in Game 2, and straighten it out.

SA to cover the 5.5, with an opportunity to make a few extra bucks on a money line play.

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Indiana vs Miami Handicapping

Game 2 of the Eastern Conference playoff finals can’t tip off soon enough for Indiana coach Frank Vogel, who has spent the last 36 hours being second-guessed – and second-guessing himself – for leaving his best big man on the bench in the final seconds of Game 1 and watching LeBron James and the Heat take the Pacers’ lunch money.

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Eastern Conference
Indiana Pacers (0-1) at Miami Heat (1-0)
Wednesday, May 24
American Airlines Arena, Miami
8:30 p.m. EST
Spread – Heat -7.5
O/U – 180.5
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James’s game-winning drive for an uncontested layup scored with under a second remaining left everyone scratching their heads. Hibbert was benched so a smaller lineup would be able to switch on defense, beginning the question of why that type of lineup was needed with just 2.2 seconds left.

Instead, Paul George overcommitted on James, the lane opened up like the Red Sea, LBJ had the easiest two of his 30 points, the Heat had a 103-102 overtime win, the Pacers had blown a chance to steal home-court advantage and alter the complexion of the series, and anti-Heat fans across North America were screaming WTF and shaking their heads.

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So the Pacers, emotionally drained after blowing a huge opportunity, have to schlepp out on the court and try to do it all over again tonight. No easy task, even if Game 1 gave them confidence that they can actually hang with the Heat and make this a series that most everyone would be over in 5 games max.

Despite the deflating loss, heading in Game 2 Indiana has to be at least a little encouraged that the Heat appeared to be what Vogel said they were prior to the start of the series – just another team, albeit a good one.

The Pacers had modest edges over Miami in free throws (75-64 percent, 3-point shooting and rebounding (43-38). As expected, the front line of Hibbert, George and David West was more than solid, combining for 72 points.

Miami, meanwhile, has to be feeling pretty good as the Heat players towel off from a day at the beach and get ready for that short limo ride to the area. The Heat may have taken Indiana’s best shot, and in the process shaken off the rust from a week-long layover after the Chicago series.

The defending champs need just three more wins to get to The Finals again, and can start to twist the knife tonight in Game 2.

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Heat games are starting to trend over as the playoffs grind on and teams wear down trying to defend Miami’s spread offense.

Over players on Game 1 would have cashed even without overtime, and oddsmakers have given everyone a bonus by dropping the O/U another point, to 180.5.

It’s a buying opportunity for over players, especially considering that the Heat are unlikely to miss 9 free throws tonight. Over is the play here, before the number rises in late betting.

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Indiana vs Miami Handicapping

There was a lot of 2nd guessing after the Pacers Game 1 loss on the last play of the game when LeBron James had, pretty much, a non contested layup to win in OT.

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Venue/ Stadium: AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami, FL
Time/Date: 8:30 PM EST Friday, May 24, 2013
NBA Odds
Moneyline: Pacers +280 / Heat +340
Spread: Heat -7.5
Over/Under:  180.5
Odds From 5 Dimes

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Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat Preview

That is all water under the bridge now and even in the loss the Pacers have to come away with confidence after losing Game 1 in Miami by a single point in overtime. NBA lines have the Heat as 7.5-point home favorites with a total of 180.5.

In Game1 the Heat beat the Pacers 103-102 in OT.

On the season the Pacers are 57-37 and 51-43 ATS and the Heat are 75-17 and 52-40 ATS.

This season the Heat are 42-5 at home and the Pacers are 21-26 on the road.

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LeBron James went for a triple double in Game 1 and while he Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh were solid each shooting at least 50% from the field they could use some more help from the bench. Chris Anderson had a great game off the bench scoring 16 points on 7/7 shooting, but Ray Allen, Shane Battier and Norris Cole only combined to shoot 2/16 from the field.

The frontcourt starters of David West, Paul George, and Roy Hibbert combined to score 72 points in the Game 1 loss, but the guards struggled with their shot. George Hill and Lance Stephenson only combined to score 12 points on 4/19 shooting and they need to knock down their open shots to open up the lane.

The Heat outscored the Pacers in the paint in Game 1 60-48.

Both teams need to rebound the ball better, as each team had at least 15 offensive boards in Game 1.

Game 1 was a sloppy game with each team committing at least 20 turnovers and there were 58 personal fouls called.

Paul George has to get going earlier in Game 2, as in Game 1 he did get hot on the 2nd half and score 27 overall, but he only has 2 at halftime.

In some betting trends for this Eastern Conference semifinal game the Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss, and they have an Over record of 12-2 in their last 14 games following a S.U. loss.

The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.

In the last 7 games between these 2 teams the total has gone Over 6 times.

Jason’s Pick: I picked Indy to cover in Game 1 and I am going to do so again. I think the Heat will win again, but the Pacers have confidence in Miami’s house and they will cover the 7.5-point spread for the 2nd straight game.

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Indiana vs Miami Handicapping

Is there any way on God’s green earth that that the Indiana Pacers can take out the Miami Heat in their Eastern Conference finals series that begins tonight?

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Eastern Conference
Indiana Pacers (0-0) at Miami Heat (0-0)
Wednesday, May 22
American Airlines Arena, Miami
8:30 p.m. EST
Spread – Heat -7.5 at SBO
O/U – 182.5

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Not much, but when the teams take the court in Game 1 we’ll get a sneak preview of how the Pacers will try to accomplish the near-impossible:

No doubt Indiana coach Frank Vogel has told his team that they will have to win most of the battles that occur within 10 feet of the hoop – both offensively and defensively.

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The Pacers have an advantage over the Heat on the glass, where Indiana led the NBA in rebounding margin and the Heat were dead last. How that plays out tonight will give at least some indication of whether the Pacers can make this a long and interesting series or will go quietly sometime next week before we tear the May page off the kitchen calendar.

Gobs of pressure will be on Indiana’s front line of David West, Roy Hibbert and Paul George to pile up a significant rebounding advantage over the likes over Chris Andersen, Udonis Haslem and the contact-averse Chris Bosh.

If the Heat hold their own on the glass tonight, the Pacers won’t be able to take this game deep into the second half.

Miami has lost one game in the playoffs thus far (to Chicago in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semis), and in that one the Heat were caught off guard when the Bulls crashed the boards and earned 46-32 rebounding edge.

The Heat quickly figured things out after that, though, and dominated over the next four games.

There is also pressure on Indiana point guard George Hill to both take care of the basketball and make a few shots to clear things out for Hibbert, George and West. Hill has been solid throughout the playoffs, and the Pacers feel that he gives them an edge at the one over Miami’s Mario Chalmers.

Comparisons are difficult, though, because Chalmers’s job is basically to stay out of the way of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade once the ball crosses halfcourt.

Of course, beating the Heat is easier said than done, and every plan can be tossed into a waste basket when your team turns the ball over and James has the ball in the open court.

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There is a school of thought that the Heat, who haven’t played since polishing off the Bulls a week ago, will show the same rust exhibited in Game 1 of the Chicago series after sweeping Milwaukee and sitting for 8 days.

Maybe.

Maybe the Heat will be in auto mode and wait to see if the Pacers will pack a punch in this series. Not looking for a rout in Game 1 as the teams feel out each other.

Indiana plus the points in this one.

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Indiana vs Miami Game 1 Betting!

The Pacers and Heat meet in the playoffs for the second straight season and last season Miami prevailed in 6 games. The Heat are 3-0 in conference finals appearances since the Big 3 joined the team.

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Venue/ Stadium: American Airlines Arena, Miami, FL
Time/Date: 8:30 PM EST Wednesday, May 22, 2013
NBA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Pacers +320 / Heat -400 at WagerWeb
Spread: Heat -7.5
Over/Under:  182.5

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Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat Preview

Pacers’ backup big man Ian Mahinmi is the only Indiana player that has played in a conference final, so Miami has the experience. NBA lines have the Heat as 7.5-point home favorites with  total of 182.5.

In the wins closing out their last series’ the Heat beat the Chicago Bulls 94-91 and the Pacers beat the New York Knicks 106-99.

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On the season the Pacers are 57-36 and they are 50-43 ATS and the Heat are 74-17 and are 52-39 ATS.

This season the Heat are 41-5 at home and the Pacers are 21-25 on the road.

The Pacers beat the Heat in their first 2 meetings this season and everyone was talking about how Indiana may give them problems in the playoffs. However, in the last game at home they rushed the Pacers by 14 points.

The Heat only have 1 loss in the post-season so far.

In their only loss in the playoffs the Heat had a long layoff and the Bulls stole game 1 in Miami in the last series. The Heat have had 6 days off and that is concern heading into this Game 1.

Pacers’ 7’2″ C Roy Hibbert came up big in the last round of the playoffs and he will have to play well in this game and series since the Heat lack a legit big man.

The Pacers’ defense ranked 2nd in the league in points allowed and they have to play solid D against Le Bron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. They must be physical with these guys and make them work for their hoops.

Paul George has been the team’s leader in the playoffs and he guarded Carmelo Anthony in the last round and now will match up against James.

In 3 of their 4 losses in the playoffs this season the Pacers have scored 75 points or fewer. They have a solid offense, but their key is their D.

In some betting trends for this Eastern Conference playoff match up the Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games, and they have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games facing a team with a winning record.

The Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and they have an Over record of 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games.

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between these 2 teams.

Jason’s Pick: The Pacers are a confident team and while they will not win this game like the Bulls did in the last round in Miami they will play well and cover the spread.

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Memphis vs San Antonio Betting!

The Spurs have a 1-0 lead in this Western Conference semifinals series after thrashing the Grizzlies in Game 1. This season Memphis had the best defense in the league in terms of opponents’ points allowed, but in the Game 1 loss they gave up over 100 points and allowed the Spurs to shoot over 52% from the floor.

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Venue/ Stadium: AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Time/Date: 9 PM EST Tuesday, May 21, 2013
NBA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Grizzlies +180 / Spurs -220 at TOPBet
Spread: Spurs -5.5
Over/Under:  181.5

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs Preview

Since Memphis is not a high scoring team they will go down 2-0 in this series unless they play better D. NAB lines have the Spurs as 5.5-point home favorites with a total of 181.5.

In Game 1 the Spurs beat the Grizzlies 105-83.

On the season the Grizzlies are 64-30 and they are 56-36-2 ATS and the Spurs are 67-26 and they are 47-44-2 ATS.

This season the Spurs are 40-7 at home and the Grizzlies are 27-21 on the road.

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Zach Randolph had been playing great in the playoffs, but in Game 1 he was blanketed by the San Antonio defense and only scored 2 points on 1/8 shooting. It is key that he and Marc Gasol, who was 7/15 for 15 points in Game 1, ley the Memphis offense.

It is pretty obvious that the Grizzlies need to play better perimeter D tonight, as in Game 1 they allowed the Spurs to make a franchise record 14 3-pointers and overall shot a 3-pt FG% of 48.3%.

Tim Duncan did not have a big Game 1, but Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard, and Danny Green combined for 54 points and all 3 players shot well over 50% from the floor.

The Griz need Randolph to score tonight and overall they need more balanced scoring. In Game 1 Gasol and Mike Conley were the only 2 Memphis starters that scored in double figures.

The Grizzlies cannot come out flat in this game like they did in Game 1 when after the first quarter the Spurs jumped out to a 31-17 lead.

In some betting trends for this playoff game the Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss, and they have an Over record of 6-2 in their last 8 road games.

The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a S.U. win, and they have an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.

The Spurs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against the Grizzlies.

Jason’s Pick: I think this series will be a good one and while the Grizzlies may not win tonight they will play much better defense than they did in Game 1 and at least cover the spread.

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NBA Betting By Chance?

We are down to the final four for this year’s playoffs as the march towards the NBA Finals wears on.

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The Western Conference Finals got underway this past Sunday with the No.2 San Antonio Spurs drawing first blood with a dominating 105-83 victory over the No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 as 4.5-point home favorites. Game 2 from the AT&T Center is scheduled for Tuesday night.

Eastern Conference

The Eastern Conference Finals kick-off this Wednesday night with the No. 3 Indiana Pacers squaring off against the No. 1 Miami Heat.

The first two games of this best-of-seven series will take place at American Airlines Arena before the series shifts to Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis for games three and four.

Bovada has released its updated futures odds to win this season’s NBA title for the four remaining teams and it is no big surprise that Miami is still the overwhelming favorite to win a second-straight NBA championship at 1/3. It has rolled through these playoffs so far with an 8-1 record straight-up and a 6-3 record against the spread.

The Heat beat Milwaukee four-straight times by double-digits to sweep that series. The total stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in all four games.

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Showing some obvious signs of rust from an extended layoff, Miami lost Game 1 of its next series against Chicago 93-86 as a 12.5-point favorite at home.

The wake-up call was well received with four more SU wins to end that series in five games.

The main concern for the Heat moving forward is the health of Dwyane Wade’s knee. If he goes down against the Pacers the gap between Miami and the rest of the field would drastically shrink.

Western Conference

The next team on the list to win it all at 4/1 is the San Antonio Spurs and there is already some added value to those odds considering the 1-0 edge it has in the conference finals. The Spurs hardly played like a championship caliber ball club down the stretch of the regular season but on a team that is littered with highly experienced veterans, they were able to quickly return to form once the postseason began.

San Antonio made short work of the Los Angeles Lakers with four-straight double-digit victories for the series sweep. Things got a bit more difficult against its next California team after Golden State battled the Spurs to a 2-2 series tie through the first four games. The true sign of a seasoned veteran team is the ability to raise its play to a whole new level when things tighten up and that is exactly what San Antonio.

It closed-out the Warriors in six games with back-to-back victories by a combined 30 points. When this team is playing at that kind of level, it could easily give Miami a run for its money in a best-of-seven showdown.

Despite the Game 1 loss, the Oddsmakers see the Grizzlies has having the best chance of pulling off an upset to win the Western Conference. They have been opened at 10/1 to win it all and given their past track record in these playoffs remain worth another look.

Memphis lost the first two games on the road in the opening round against the Los Angeles Clippers and bounced back with four-straight wins both SU and ATS. It stumbled out of the gate in Game 1 against Oklahoma City in a two-point loss as a 3.5-point road favorite, but ended that series in five games with another four-game run both SU and ATS.

This team has the defense to keep things close against anyone, but to have any chance at winning it all, the Grizzlies cannot afford to fall too far behind against the Spurs in their current series.

Indiana has the longest odds of the group 16/1, but that does not mean there is not any value in them. The Pacers won the regular season series against Miami 2-1 both SU and ATS with both wins coming at home.

The key to getting to the finals would be to steal a win on the road in one of the first two games of the conference finals to swing home court in their favor.

This will be far easier said than done, but Indiana is another team that knows how to play defense and bang the boards to get rebounds. Once again, if Wade goes down, these odds start to look pretty good.

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Memphis vs San Antonio Handicapping

When teams get this far into the playoffs, talent tends to even out and coaches have to start really earning their money by making adjustments.

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Western Conference finals
Memphis Grizzlies (0-1) at San Antonio Spurs (1-0)
Tuesday, May 21
AT&T Center, San Antonio
9 p.m. EST
Spread – Spurs -5 at SBO
O/U – 181.5

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That’s the task that Memphis coach Lionel Hollins is facing today as his Grizzlies try to avoid plunging into an 0-2 hole in the best-of-7 Western Conference playoffs when they take on the Spurs in Game 2 tonight in San Antonio.

You know it’s been a rough night when the highlight of Game 1 is the 2-0 lead the Grizzlies managed in the early going. Memphis was able to put up only 12 more points in the first period, San Antonio roared out to a 31-14 edge after 12 minutes and that pretty much was it.

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The Grizzlies always dig in defensively, but they were confused in the opener and were unable to run the Spurs off the 3-point line. San Antonio made 14 threes ( a playoff franchise record), and if they even come close to that tonight the Grizzlies will be calling for help and basically needing to win two when the series shifts to Tennessee for Games 3 and 4.

Hollins, meanwhile, has no doubt been working on the Grizz getting better looks for Zach Randolph. The big’s hoop at the 9:26 mark of the fourth period was his one and only basket of the game. Randolph had so many defenders around him when he got the ball down low that it appeared that even George Gervin was part of the SA defense.

Reserve Quincy Poindexter did his part to pick up the slack, but even his 17 points and a total of 38 bench points couldn’t overcome San Antonio’s 48.3 percent shooting from beyond the arc.

Spurs big Matt Bonner knows every game is unique, and warns Spurs fans not to expect that kind of lights-out shooting tonight.

“It’s highly improbable we’re going to shoot at the clip we did last game,” Bonner said Monday. “They’ve got the best defense in the league. They’re going to come out and make adjustments and play better on defense for sure.”

Even more than SA’s hot shooting and Randolph’s struggles, what should concern the Grizzlies is that the Spurs were able to dominate without getting a whole lot from Tim Duncan.

The Big Fundamental shot only 3 for 9 from the floor in 27 minutes, though he did grab 10 rebounds.

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With only one day to make changes, it’s unclear how the Grizz will try to get Randolph out of the box tonight. Memphis doesn’t have the offensive firepower to make SA pay for packing it in, and because of that the Grizz don’t have the luxury and letting the game unfold.

If they get behind again, it could make for a second consecutive long night. Liking the Spurs to cover again and go up 2-0.

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2013 Playoffs – NBA playoff odds

We’re mere weeks away from the coveted Larry O’Brien NBA Championship Trophy being presented to one lucky team. With only four clubs still in contention for that honor, let’s take a look at the case for each club to take home the title.

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Miami Heat -300

They’re certainly the favorites. The defending champs are firing on all cylinders, needing only nine games to get past the Bucks and Bulls.

Extra rest before the Eastern Conference Finals will afford Dwyane Wade some time to heal his injured knee, and a healthy Dwyane Wade is the last thing Miami’s opponents will want to contend with. With the Big Three rolling along, Miami is correctly installed as heavy favorites to win it all.

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San Antonio Spurs +550

The favorites to come out of the West, the Spurs are no strangers to winning big games. The team is 5-1 on the road in the postseason. Tim Duncan continues to defy the aging process, averaging 19.6 points and 11.2 rebounds against the Warriors.

A ton of criticism was fired Gregg Popovich’s way for resting his star players during the regular season, but those moves are paying dividends now. The Spurs are as healthy as they’ve been all season and looking like a club that’s poised to win a fifth NBA title under Coach Pop.

Memphis Grizzlies +600

Grizzlies fans and players alike weren’t shy about voicing their criticisms of the team’s midseason trade that saw Rudy Gay leave town, but no one is questioning the Grizz’s new brain trust now that the team is competing in the Western Conference Finals for the first time.

No team has made in-series adjustments better than Lionel Hollins and the Grizzlies have. The team is a combined 8-1 after series-opening games through two rounds. With Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol leading a physically imposing defense, Memphis could bully their way to the franchise’s first NBA title.

Indiana Pacers +1600

With the longest odds of the bunch, it’s easy to overlook the Pacers. However, the team took two of three from the Heat in the regular season, with each of those wins coming by double digits. Miami needed six games to get past Indiana last season, and this year the Heat are dealing with an ailing Dwyane Wade, and have had trouble shooting from distance.

The Pacers were tops in the Association at defending the three-point line in the regular season.

The Pacers haven’t lost a single game in Indiana in the postseason, going 6-0 in their own building.

If they can continue to hold serve on their home court, they have as good a chance as anyone to be the last team standing when the dust settles.

It’s important to remember that the Heat were stopped by a crafty Mavericks squad in the NBA Finals two years ago. While the Heat are positioned well to claim a second consecutive NBA title, alert bettors will likely look for value elsewhere.

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Handicapping Indiana vs Miami Series

The Miami Heat are not one of the great teams in NBA history. They would have been over-run by the Showtime Lakers. The Larry Bird Celtics would have bigged them to death.

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EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Series odds
Indiana +525
Miami -750 at Bovada

Argue if you want, but we’ll take Jordan and Pippen over LeBron and D-Wade.

And the 4-championships Spurs of the early-2000s with Tim Duncan and David Robinson would have dominated in the paint like no team can today.

That said, in today’s NBA this Heat team is the best the Association has to offer, and sometime next week the South Beach Two will finish off the Indiana Pacers in what passes for the Eastern Conference finals, then begin preparation for its third straight trip to The Finals.

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While the Heat are still a ways from cementing their spots among the giants of NBA history, assuming good health what they have now is the best player on the court in every game they play.

LeBron James is a step up from every other player in the league, and with the Thunder out of the picture, 1.5 steps better than anyone else available to take the court in the playoffs.

Is there anything the Pacers can do to make life uncomfortable for James & the Heat?

Sure, but if the Knicks Eastern semifinal series showed anything, it’s that like all halfway-decent-but-not-great teams, the Pacers are not good enough to hang with the best teams.

Example: In their Game 6 close-out of New York, the Knicks were able to rain 3s on the Pacers in the second half and Indiana’s defense had no idea how to defend the arc.

Any hopes of making this a 7-game anything-can-happen series lies in Indiana’s ability to get max production out of center Roy Hibbert. Hibbert likely will be guarded by Chris Bosh, which is a good thing. For Hibbert, anyway.

If the often-awkward 7-foot-3 Hibbert gets rolling, the Heat will likely throw a few double-teams at him the way the Knicks did on occasion. If he doesn’t? Well, in that care we hope you have the Heat to cover.

Depth is a concern, and not for the team you might figure. The Pacers just haven’t gotten great production out of their bench, which has forced coach Frank Vogel to play his starters extended minutes.

In the clincher over the Knicks George Hill, Paul George and Hibbert all played north of 42 minutes (45-plus for George) and the bench contributed only 8 points. Compare that to Miami’s series-ending victory over the Bulls, when the Heat bench played a full 32 percent of the available minutes and contributed 25 of Miami’s 95 points.

There are a few other factors that might benefit the Pacers.

Wade is experiencing occasional pain in his right knee, but when the teams take the court in Game 1 on Wednesday he will have had a full week of rest since last playing. And there are no back-to-backs on the schedule in the playoffs, so the creaky joints will experience plenty of ice and rest.

Second, Indiana was able to beat the Heat twice at home this season. And both were relatively decisive. If the Pacers want to use those wins (87-77 and 102-89) as any kind of template, the plan this time it to hit the boards with a vengeance. Indiana outrebounded Miami by a total of 89-61 in the two victories.

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For this series to be interesting, everything has to go right for the Pacers and lots of things have to go wrong for the Heat. Too big a stretch. And with two boring teams going at it in the West, the NBA absolutely needs Miami to make it to The Finals.

No problem. Heat in 5.

Our In-House Handicapper Ray "The Razor" Monohan is making a run up the leaderboards this week! A HUGE Run. Hop on the $ Train Now!