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Sunday, February 03, 2013
Baltimore vs San Francisco
6:30 PM ET
Odds: San Francisco -3.5 at Bovada
Over/Under Odds: 47.5

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Baltimore vs Jacksonville Monday Night Football Handicapping Predictions

The lowly Jacksonville Jaguars survived better than many handicappers expected last week in a trip to Pittsburgh but life gets no easier this week, even at home. On Monday Night Football, the Jags host a Baltimore Ravens team that dominated the same Pittsburgh Steelers that beat them last week.

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NFL Week 7 Ravens vs Jaguars
Date: Monday, October 24, 2011
Venue: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Broadcast: ESPN
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Lines from Bodog.com
Money Line: OFF
Spread: Ravens -8.5
Over/Under: 39

Baltimore Ravens (4-1)

The Ravens are a legit Super Bowl contender – most books place their futures third-best behind only Green Bay’s and New England’s – but they’re doing their damage very much under the radar. I think it’s because the Ravens’ offense has been so underwhelming so far.

When they romped Pittsburgh 35-7 in Week 1, it appeared Baltimore was ready to become a top-tier offensive team. Since then, however, they’ve lost to Tennessee, breezed past St.Louis, done almost nothing on offense against the Jets, and relied on five field goals from Billy Cundiff to beat Houston.

The Ravens’ “D” has been the key, ranking first in points allowed, third overall, third against the run and seventh against the pass. Offensively, though Ray Rice continues to look like one of the league’s premier backs, Joe Flacco hasn’t matched the promise he showed as a passer in Week 1. It looks like he may stay a second-tier passer – a modern-day Drew Bledsoe, perhaps? – for good.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5)

I’m still shocked that the Jags only lost by four points at Pittsburgh. I think the reason is actually that their defense is the real deal. Even after facing the Saints, Panthers and Steelers, it’s the NFL’s No. 8 unit.

On the flipside, Jacksonville is dead last in the NFL in total offense. It averages 137.7 passing yards per game. I still don’t really blame rookie Blaine Gabbert. With the personnel in front of him, he doesn’t have a chance. The Jags desperately need to draft a receiver next spring.

The pick:

In theory, this game could be a carbon copy Jags/Steelers, but I think Baltimore goes a bit further and covers. The Ravens average three sacks per game, the exact average that led the NFL last season. They’re a more disruptive defense than Pittsburgh is this season, especially because defensive tackle Haloti Ngata is devouring the universe. There’s no better defensive lineman in football right now.

Even if the Ravens’ so-so offense sputters again versus the Jags’ underrated unit, I think their “D” will embarrass Gabbert on national TV. I like the Ravens to cover in a snoozer.

Ravens vs Jaguars prediction: Ravens 24, Jaguars 10

Money Line: OFF
Spread: Ravens -8.5
Over/Under: UNDER 39

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Week 2 St. Louis Rams vs N.Y. Giants NFL Free Pick – Odds – Handicapping Preview

Two teams looking for their inaugural win of the season do battle in an important NFC showdown on Monday night when the banged up St. Louis Rams head east to play the injury ravaged New York Giants.

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ST. LOUIS RAMS (0-1) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS (0-1)
Date/Time: Monday, September 19, 8:30 PM ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Broadcast: ESPN
Rams vs. Giants Betting Lines from BetOnline.com
Spread: Giants -6
Moneyline: Rams +230: Giants -275
Over/Under: 43 ½ points
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Expectations were high for both teams heading into the season – 0-2 is nothing that either team envisioned after two weeks of the 2011 NFL season.

The St. Louis Rams were beaten in every aspect of their Week 1 game at home versus the Philadelphia Eagles. In Week 2 they will be forced to take the field without their most trusted Wide Receiver Danny Amendola and their All-Pro Running Back, Steven Jackson. Sam Bradford was nicked in Week 1 as well.

The one thing that the St. Louis offense has going for them on Monday night is the fact that the Giants defense is as banged up as the Rams offense. After all, The Giants D made the Washington offense look pretty darn good last week!

The New York Giants are in a tough spot – 0-1 and forced play Monday without some key members of the defense and possibly without the services of Hakeem Nicks. The G-Men know the gravity of this game – a 0-2 start will seriously jeopardize their run at a playoff spot.

Eli Manning had a difficult time in Week 1. He looked confused and was out of sync all game en route to 268 yards passing, zero touchdowns and one interception. The running game was disappointing as well in generating only 73 yards on the ground. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs will get a crack at a St. Louis defense that allowed 237 yards rushing in Week 1.

The Giants defensive depth will be challenged on Monday night – Terrell Thomas, Jonathan Goff, Prince Amukamara, Justin Tuck and Osi Umennyiora will likely miss Sunday’s game due to injury. The silver lining for New York is the fact that St. Louis will be without some key figures on offense.

Betting Prediction: The New York Giants are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four games against the St. Louis Rams and have won four straight Monday Night games. However, the Giants are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games at home and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against AFC foes.

The St. Louis Rams would have needed to be at full strength in order to beat the Giants on Monday Night Football – New York has been terrific on the big stage going 4-0 in their last four appearances on Monday Night. The Rams certainly are not at full strength! Injuries will be one story – the improvement of the New York Giants will be another. Expect the Giants’ “A Game” in Week 2 on their way to a .500 record.

NFL Betting Trends:

STL are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 2.
Under is 11-5 in STL last 16 road games.
Over is 7-2 in NYG last 9 games in September.
Over is 15-5 in NYG last 20 vs. NFC.
Over is 6-2 in NYG last 8 games on fieldturf.

Pick: New York Giants -6

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Sun Belt Conference Football Future Lines – Bodog Sportsbook

The Sun Belt conference feels like it just joined the FBS party yesterday but it has been around for a little while now.

CHECK OUT THE BODOG SPORTS BOOK FOR CFB ODDS TODAY – CLICK HERE!

In terms of football the team that has led the way for thelast half decade has been Troy, often putting a scare into BCS teams, like they did in a three point loss to Oklahoma State last year.

Sun Belt Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Conference

Florida International 3/1
Troy 3/1
Arkansas State 5/1
Louisiana – Monroe 11/2
Middle Tennessee 6/1
North Texas 9/1
Western Kentucky 11/1
Florida Atlantic 12/1
Louisiana – Lafayette 12/1

The Trojans have been the big kids on the block, winning or sharing every title since 2006 and sending players to the pros in the process.

Sun Belt Conference Future Lines

This year some teams are threatening to end that run of supremacy in this conference that is overshadowed within their geographic footprint.

Best Bet – Troy

It is hard to argue with the aforementioned success of the Trojans. Even though I generally favour the underdog these guys have dominated their conference in somewhat impressive fashion over the past 5 seasons. Now people think there could be a changing of the guard but don’t forget that Troy returns its QB (Corey Robinson) and top RB (Shawn Southward) from a team that averaged 34ppg last year.

Also, their defense which is always swarming with athletes, has 8 starters in total returning.

The run will eventually end, it has to, but I am not sure this is the year.

Best Value – Arkansas State

The Red Wolves, at 5/1, are a pretty good value play this season. They return all their skill position players from a year ago led by quarterback Ryan Alpin. Provided their offensive line with just a single starter returning plays well enough this should be one of the better offenses in the country (they averaged 30ppg last season).

They also return 7 starters on defense but that is a glass is half full scenario given how many points Ark State gave up last season. This is the first year for new coach Hugh Freeze and they are expecting big things based on his past success.

This may only be the Sun Belt but it is still a big leap from Lambuth University. (I know???)

Best Schedule – Arkansas State

To be the best in the Sun Belt you have to be able to beat the best. The Red Wolves will have the advantage of playing the leagues top two teams – FIU & Troy – at home this year. If they can win just one of the those games they could really upset the standings, perhaps enough for them to reach the mountain top.

FIU is second here as they get Troy visiting as well.

Prediction – Troy

Troy and FIU tied for the championship last year at 6-2. The first time the Trojans had more than one loss in the conference since their run of titles began back in 2006. The league is beginning to catchup up some but this is still the most talented team in the leagues and one of the most experienced too.

The schedule isn’t great but this is the one team in the league than can intimidate and win on the road.

They have done it before and can do it again.

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Western Athletic Conference Football Future Lines – Bodog Sportsbook

Where do you start when talking about the WAC. Boise State is gone and the top three contenders this season – Nevada, Hawaii and Fresno State – will all be gone by this time next year.

Last year was a bit of a golden one for the conference with Nevada knocking off Boise State on the way to a record season, but with all everything QB Colin Kaepernick gone the Wolf Pack are likely in for a downer of a season despite being the odds on favourite.

CHECK OUT THE BODOG SPORTS BOOK FOR CFB ODDS TODAY – CLICK HERE!

Western Athletic Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Conference

Nevada 2/1
Hawaii 5/2
Fresno State 3/1
Louisiana Tech 6/1
Idaho 14/1
San Jose State 16/1
Utah State 20/1
New Mexico State 33/1

Truth be told without the Broncos and little star power elsewhere, there is little reason to pay close attention to the WAC this season.

Best Bet – Hawaii

The Rainbow Warriors get the nod here because they are the only one of the top contenders returning their starting QB – Bryant Moniz – the latest in a long line of prolific signal callers. He is one of only 2 starters returning on offense but Hawaii hasn’t had trouble moving the ball down the field in years with their high flying passing attack.

WAC Conference Future Lines

On defense they return more than half of their starters, sprinkling them across all levels of the defense. In this conference, which tends to be a bit wide open, having any degree of strength on D is key to winning. Just one stop a game can make the difference.

Best Value – Fresno State

You can see that the odds are fairly close at the top so the Bulldogs are the play here offering just a slightly more value than the others. This team is always tough and plays a physical brand of football that is contrary to most other teams in the conference. The schedule isn’t too bad and in Robby Rouse they have the conference’s best running back.

They are hoping lightning can strike twice with the elevation of Derek Carr (David’s younger brother) to starting QB this fall.

Best Schedule – Nevada

They lost their best player in program history but this team still has several playmakers, and most importantly, a very favourable schedule to challenge for the league title before bolting to the Mountain West.

The key is that they host both Hawaii and Fresno State but not to be overrated is their very light road schedule – @San Jose State, @New Mexico State and @ Utah State. It might not be great timing given their losses but the non conference schedule is pretty brutal with three road games against Oregon, Boise State and Texas Tech.

If they emerge from those games healthy and with their ego in tact after those ones they should compete for the WAC championship again.

Prediction – Fresno State

Truth is this league is really a toss up this season with any of the top three teams capable of winning it. I like Fresno State the best because they have a couple of special players in the aforementioned Rouse and defensive tackle Logan Harrell.

As usual the Bulldogs loaded up in the nonconferene which makes playing the other WAC teams sometimes feel like scrimmages.

Pat Hill knows he is under some pressure to perform and I think he will rise up to meet it.

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Southeastern Conference Football Future Lines – Bodog Sportsbook

Well once again an SEC team won the BCS title last season. It may have been a surprise that it was Auburn but they earned it by going undefeated in the toughest conference in America.

CHECK OUT THE BODOG SPORTS BOOK FOR CFB ODDS TODAY – CLICK HERE!

The Tigers are sure going to be down this year but there are any number of talented teams that could win the conference and and in the process position themselves for a BCS crown as well.

Southeastern Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Conference

Alabama 9/5
Florida 9/2
Georgia 5/1
LSU 5/1
South Carolina 6/1
Arkansas 14/1
Tennessee 18/1
Mississippi State 22/1
Auburn 28/1
Kentucky 66/1
Mississippi 66/1
Vanderbilt 150/1

Every week is an absolute slugfest in this conference where 7 or 8 teams are in most top 25 rankings.

SEC Conference Future Lines

No wonder they produce national champions, if you make out of this conference you are more than battle tested.

Best Bet – Alabama

It is a testament to the strength of the Alabama Crimson Tide that they could be considered so highly given that they have yet to decide who their starting quarterback will be between two quarterbacks who have practically no combined experience. This team lost multiple first round picks to the NFL but still returns plenty of talent on both sides of the ball.

The Tide defense should be among the most stingy in the country once again and their offensive line could be the best in the nation.

With their schedule it won’t be easy but Alabama is good enough to run the gauntlet provided the QB play is adequate.

Best Value – Georgia

I put the Georgia Bulldogs here because I think they are the best bet to win the East division and as a result play in the championship game. In the West you have Alabama, LSU and Arkansas, any of whom could be the representative, but in the East I think Florida is not quite there and even though South Carolina is probably more talented than Georgia, they have the far tougher schedule.

Right now Georgia would certainly be the underdog to any of the aforementioned West teams but you have to make it to the championship game to win it.

5/1 ain’t bad for claiming one side of the bracket.

Best Schedule – Georgia

Last year was forgettable and Georgia is looking to rebound even though they have some questions at wide receiver and running back. One thing you can’t question is that this schedule is built for making some noise this season. They get the South Carolina game at home, avoid the big three from the west and have road games against Ole Miss, Tennessee and Vanderbilt.

If they beat the Gamecocks in their SEC opener in week 2 they might even be able to run the table.

Prediction – Georgia

When I started writing this I was sure that I would be profiling LSU or Bama or maybe even the Arkansas Razorbacks here. They are all good teams for sure but the more I look at Georgia the more I like them.

The key will be the improvement of their defense. Someone was asked why the SEC has dominated in championship games and the reason offered up is because they are so strong on the defensive line.

Geogia is looking to start three 300 pounders, who can run, in the trenches which will enable their other athletes to fly around and make plays. This team is going to surprise.

The real question is will they be ready from the get go and beat Boise State and join the national title debate early.

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NCAA Football Betting – Regular Season Win Totals

Betting on College football regular season win totals is one of my favorite things to do in football gambling. It essentially challenges you to predict whether a team goes boom or bust over the course of a season.

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Here are 10 to try for the NCAA in 2011.

Arkansas UNDER 8.5 wins

No Ryan Mallett and a diminished O-line will make wins tougher to come by in Arkansas this year. To me, the Razorbacks’ trips to Alabama and LSU plus their home games against Texas A&M and South Carolina look like four losses and fewer than nine wins already.

2011 NCAA Over/Under Wins Football Predictions

Auburn UNDER 6.5 wins

We assume the Tigers will win their non-conference games but do we know so? The defending national champs’ roster has been totally gutted. And life in the SEC could be miserable, including trips to South Carolina, LSU and Georgia and home games against Florida and Alabama.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Auburn totally tanked this season.

Boise State OVER 10.5 wins

The Broncos still have that powerhouse defense and Heisman Trophy hopeful Kellen Moore leading a potent offense. With Utah and BYU vacating the Mountain West just as Boise State arrived, I’m not even convinced the Broncos will have a tougher challenge this season. They could easily go undefeated again and get no BCS respect again.

Their Week-1 trip to Georgia could be their toughest game to win.

Georgia OVER 9 wins

I’ll admit that this is risky. But everyone is high on rising star quarterback Aaron Murray. The Bulldogs play in the SEC but dodge Alabama and LSU on the schedule this season. That means, in my mind, they skip the two toughest teams in the conference.

To me, Georgia could start 0-2 against Boise State and South Carolina but run the table the rest of the way.

LSU OVER 9.5 wins

Can LSU go 10-2? I think so. At least the Tigers get Oregon at home. The Alabama game in November admittedly makes me nervous. But, again, they could drop both of those games and still win every other. I’m curious to see if LSU gets more out of enigmatic quarterback Jordan Jefferson this season. If it can, the sky’s the limit for this team.

Mississippi State OVER 7.5 wins

With its potent offense, I think Mississippi State can overcome the losses to their linebacker core on “D” and go 9-3 this season. The only problems I foresee are the trip to Georgia and home games against South Carolina and Alabama.

Even if the Bulldogs lose at Auburn in September, that still puts them on track to go 8-4 in my mind.

Oklahoma OVER 10 wins

I straight-up think Oklahoma is the best team in the country, as many of us do, so I think it can go undefeated. Sure, if has tough competition. But I see Oklahoma splitting its trip to Florida State and home game against Texas A&M 1-1 at worst, which would put the Sooners in line for 11 victories.

Oregon OVER 10 wins

The core that reached the national title game returns. LaMichael James terrorized opposing defenses last season; I don’t see why he can’t do so again. Argh, I know the schedule is deadly with trips to LSU and Stanford.

But I’ll call Oregon to at least outgun Andrew Luck and beat Stanford’s defense.

Stanford OVER 9 wins

I have to think Andrew Luck will crusade to the Heisman and No. 1 overall NFL draft status next season. To do so, he’ll have to keep Stanford as competitive as it was last year. I don’t see many threats to a 10-2 season on the Cardinal’s schedule. The only really dangerous team they face on the road in my mind is USC.

They could lose that game and fall to Oregon at home and still win 10 games.

Wisconsin OVER 9.5 wins

I’m bullish on Wisconsin this season. Love their running game and I think Russell Wilson will handle the quarterback job better than many people expect.

The Badgers’ schedule doesn’t scare me at all. Nebraska could cause trouble but Wisconsin gets that game at home; Ohio State should take a step back this season with no more Terrelle Pryor and no more Jim Tressel, so the Buckeyes aren’t a sure bet to beat Wisconsin on October 29 either.

I think the Badgers can go 10-2 if not better than that.

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Mid American Conference Football Future Lines – Bodog Sportsbook

Of all the conferences I feel like the Mid American Conference (MAC) gets the least respect. On a regular basis they are generally pummeled by teams from the Big East and Big Ten but inside the conference the games are super competitive and gruelling.

CHECK OUT THE BODOG SPORTS BOOK FOR CFB ODDS TODAY – CLICK HERE!

Also, every once in a while there is a team that grabs your attention the way that Ball State did a few years back, or even a player.

MAC Conference 2011 – Odds to Win Conference

Toledo 67/20
Northern Illinois 7/2
Temple 4/1
Miami Ohio 5/1
Ohio 5/1
Western Michigan 8/1
Central Michigan 16/1
Kent State 25/1
Akron 30/1
Bowling Green 33/1
Ball State 35/1
Buffalo 35/1
Eastern Michigan 40/1

Remember Dan LeFevour at Central Michigan, I like to call him Tebow North.

Can you say the same about the Sun Belt?

MAC Conference Future Lines

2011 might not have that kind of star power but it should definitely be a season of very closely contested games once again.

Best Bet – Northern Illinois

It seems like the only thing missing for the Northern Illinois Huskies this season is coach Jerry Kill – great name. This forgotten team won 11 games last year (including a spanking of Fresno State in the Humanitarian Bowl) and returns an amazing 9 starters on offense including first team MAC quarterback Chandler Harnish and its entire offensive line. Transitioning to a new coach can be challenging but this team has a simple formula for winning. Crush people with their ground game and don’t make mistakes (+11 in turnovers last season). That O-line wasa real difference maker last year and can be again.

Best Value – Ohio

Ever since Frank Solich arrived at Ohio they have always been in the mix without ever breaking through. Like Northern Illinois they employ a very conservative approach on offense that usually nets them an 8-4 season and a bowl game. That kind of consistency is why I think at 5/1 odds they are a a great value play.

They have a pretty good conference schedule and if they can sneak into the Championship Game, the fact that they have the most experienced coach in the conference could make a real difference.

Ohh…and they also return their entire offensive line.

Best Schedule – Toledo

The main reason the Rockets get the nod here is because they get to host Northern Illinois this year, a game that will likely determine the winner of the MAC West. They also have a highly anticipated game against Miami of Ohio but again that one is at home. Plus they get the luxury of facing off against all of the Michigan directional schools to soften their schedule throughout.

Kudos to the Rockets for scheduling Ohio State and Boise State in the non-conference (that’s guts), although playing them back to back is just brutal even if the Broncos are coming to the Glass Bowl.

Prediction – Northern Illinois

Some see a MAC Championship featuring Toledo and Miami but I think that the Huskies will rebound from last year’s championship game disappointment to take the crown this year. Truth be told I see only one loss on their schedule – a game against Wisconsin at Soldier Field in which I would definitely take the Huskies plus the points.

The team is ready to roll is what should be a slightly better than average season for the MAC. 7/2 ain’t bad odds either.

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Mountain West Conference Football Future Lines – Bodog Sportsbook

Its definitely an interesting year in the reshaped Mountain West Conference. The coup of landing Boise State will be balanced by the loss of BYU and Utah, two programs who have challenged TCU for conference supremacy over the last few seasons.

CHECK OUT THE BODOG SPORTS BOOK FOR CFB ODDS TODAY – CLICK HERE!

MWC 2011 – Odds to Win Conference

Boise State 2/7
TCU 7/2
San Diego State 12/1
Air Force 16/1
Colorado State 25/1
Wyoming 33/1
UNLV 80/1
New Mexico 150/1

Also of interest is the fact that this is the last year for TCU in the conference. The way those Horned Frogs have stomped on their divisional foes you can bet that teams will be salivating at the chance to return the favour one last time (if they can).

Mountain West Football Future Lines

All in all there should be a lot of interest and intrigue in the MWC as Boise strives for an appearance in the BCS again, perhaps this time in the championship game.

Best Bet – Boise State

You can tell by the odds just how much of a prohibitive favourite Boise State is this season. I assume that means oddsmakers see them winning against TCU but I think the more interesting things is whether the Broncos will beat Georgia to start the season. If they do they will be brimming with confidence but if they don’t will they see the rest of their season as “meaningless”, affecting their play. This team is returning a lot of talent but not as much as they had last season. Their key is QB Kellen Moore, only a few teams can say they have as much confidence in their signal caller.

Best Value – San Diego State

The Aztecs may have had 4 losses last year but none were by more than 5 points. They also may have lost their head coach (Brady Hoke to Michigan) but they return their amazing QB/RB combination and have some continuity as defensive coordinator Rocky Long was elevated to top job. The only thing holding this team back are the unknowns at the wide receiver position. Last year they had NFL prospects at WR but this year, especially due to early injuries, the position is a little thin. I think they will figure it out so even though they are a long shot, 12/1 is decent value here given they have a scheduling advantage over some other teams.

Best Schedule – San Diego State

It is going to be very challenging for the Aztecs to win the MWC this season. But if they do scheduling will play a big part as they are “lucky” to get the leagues top two teams, Boise State and TCU, to visit them. I imagine these games will be well attended and it is too bad they don’t have a cool and cozy on campus stadium to create a better atmosphere – just the relic that is Qualcomm Stadium. The only tough road game will be at Air Force. If they shock TCU the week before I hope they don’t have a letdown against the Falcons.

Prediction – TCU

Forgive me Boise State fans but I have often felt that your team was a tad overrated of late.

Conversely, I have felt TCU has been a little under appreciated, during these teams recent attacks on the BCS. The winner of the MWC will likely be decided when TCU visits the Smurf Dome on November 12. I am picking TCU because I think they will win that game. By then their inexperienced QB will have some mileage on the odometer and these teams quite likely with both be undefeated.

In the past when they have met they have had loads of time to prepare (bowl games). With just a normal prep week it will really come down to the players and I think TCU defense and overall athleticiscm will shine through.

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