THE NFL DOUBLE TAKE
Our Sportsbook.com writers continue to provide you with solid picks and have four more games to dissect this week.
Both writers went 2-2 with last weekend’s picks and while not a winning week, they are both siding with the winners more often than not. Through six weeks, Cras has a 14-8-2 Double Take record with Mike at 13-9-2.
Will the winning continue this weekend? Here’s how they like four key matchups on Sunday.
San Diego Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Mike: San Diego got their record up to .500 with an emotional win over New England. Now, they’re at Buffalo before a brutal travel game against New Orleans in London. The Chargers would love to get LaDainian Tomlinson on track for this game but he’s on pace for the worst rushing season of his career. Quarterback Philip Rivers has also fared much worse on the road this season.
Buffalo quarterback Trent Edwards will play despite suffering a concussion against Arizona two weeks ago. That’s the advantage of a bye-week. The Bills will continue to rely on a balanced offensive attack, solid overall defense and superior special teams. That’s a formula I’m buying at home with an Even spread.
Prediction: Buffalo Pick’em
Cras: With any luck at all, the Chargers would be sitting at 5-1 as they prepare to take on the 4-1 Bills in Buffalo. The Bills have surprised a lot of bettors but the schedule hasn’t been particularly difficult and with games against San Diego, a rejuvenated Miami team and New England in three of the next four weeks, we’ll soon learn where this team stands.
Edwards is expected to be back after leaving the team’s last game with a concussion and his team will need him as backup J.P. Losman didn’t get much done when he came into the game. Early bettors love the Chargers but it’s hard to count out the Bills with a healthy Edwards, especially when you consider LaDainian Tomlinson isn’t 100% healthy and the Buffalo secondary is much better than New England’s. West Coast teams also tend to struggle when they travel East.
Pick: Buffalo Pick’em
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Mike: This is an NFC North battle that would be more interesting in the frozen tundra of Soldier Field in December, but it’s still a good matchup. Both of these teams are 3-3 but Minnesota has to be happy with that after starting out 0-2. The Vikes will, of course, try to get Adrian Peterson going, but Chicago’s run defense is 5th in the league.
Chicago is kicking themselves are blowing a game in Atlanta last week. However, quarterback Kyle Orton has been a pleasant surprise, averaging 272 passing yards the past four games. The Bears need to supplement his effort with better production from the run game but that won’t be easy against the Vikings front seven. Still, I like the Bears giving just a field goal at home.
Pick: Chicago -3
Cras: At identical 3-3 records, both of these teams have been disappointments to this point of the season with the Vikings the bigger of the two. Everyone expected Peterson and the Vikings to win this division and while they have the same chance to win as Chicago and Green Bay right now, everyone was expecting more.
I admit that I didn’t know what to expect from the Bears this year but after their opening weekend win at Indianapolis, and having another big win over Philadelphia, you’d expect them to be better than .500 right now. Instead, a loss to the Atlanta Falcons last weekend leaves this team in need of a win at home. I’m still waiting for Peterson to have one of those monstrous games that made him such a star last year. He did it against Chicago last year. Is this his first big one this season?
Pick: Minnesota +3
New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Mike: The early money is on the Saints and it has pushed the spread down by a full point. Part of the optimism for New Orleans is coming off a 34-3 home win over the hapless Oakland Raiders. Another reason is that tight end Jeremy Shockey and receiver Marques Colston should both be back.
As good as New Orleans played last week, that’s how bad Carolina was in a blowout loss at Tampa. The Panthers are going to need to run early and often to move the chains and keep Drew Brees off the field. Carolina should play a lot better at home where they are 3-0 (although against weak competition). I’m going against the betting public in this one.
Pick: Carolina -3
Cras: The Saints are likely getting their top receiver back in Marques Colston but now it appears that running back Reggie Bush may not play with a knee injury. Bush hasn’t practiced this week and will likely be a game-time decision against the divisional rival.
That adds pressure to New Orleans’ quarterback Drew Brees and also puts more liability for the power running game, led by Deuce McAllister, for this key matchup. Carolina has been great at home, going 2-0-1 against the spread, and I like them to continue the streak and bounce back from last week’s horrid effort.
Pick: Carolina -3
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers
Mike: Green Bay won their first two games, dropped the next three, and then had a good win at lowly Seattle last week. In order to keep their winning streak alive, running back Ryan Grant must run the ball a lot better and Aaron Rodgers must continue to overcome his shoulder injury. Oh yeah, their banged up defense must stop Peyton Manning.
Indianapolis had their most complete game of the year in blowing out Baltimore last week. There is a concern at running back as Joseph Addai will miss the game with a hamstring injury, but Dominic Rhodes filled in admirably last week. Manning also looks like he is rounding into form and the Colts provide good value at these odds.
Pick: Indianapolis -1.5
Cras: While the Indianapolis defense stuffed Baltimore’s run game last week, rookie quarterback Joe Flacco threw for almost as many yards as Peyton Manning. The difference was that Manning threw three touchdowns and Flacco bailed out the Colts ‘D’ with three interceptions.
Offensively, I need to see one more week from the Colts offense before I declare them back to normal. Until then, I like the Packers, especially with Ryan Grant starting to run the ball more effectively. Rodgers may not be 100% but he’ll still be better than Flacco.
Pick: Packers +1.5
