THE NFL DOUBLE TAKE
Sometimes they agree, sometimes they disagree; this week it’s a bit of both.
We had our writers break down four of the biggest Sunday afternoon matchups and here’s what they came up with.
If you like to ride the hot picks, Cras is 7-1 against the spread (ATS) with his Double Take selections over the past two weeks. For the season, he’s 33-24-3 while Mike is 32-25-3.
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike: San Diego is one of my least favorite teams to back right now. They are still mathematically alive for the playoffs but that’s only because of a giant collapse in the fourth quarter by Kansas City last week.
Meanwhile, Tampa has lost the last two weeks on the road at Carolina and Atlanta, but they return home where they are 6-0 and quarterback Jeff Garcia is expected back in the lineup after being out last week. The spread in this game has moved from three to 3.5 but I’m not shying away in the least.
Pick: Tampa Bay -3.5
Cras: Tampa Bay has lost back-to-back games, yet it seems that no-one is willing to give the Chargers a shot on Sunday and I don’t get it. Sure, the Bucs are great at home but they’ve also been run over the past two weeks and have issues at quarterback with starter Jeff Garcia questionable with an injury.
Yes, I know that San Diego barely escaped with a win over Kansas City last week but I am still riding the Chargers as 3 ½-point dogs this week. There’s too much at stake for both teams for this to be a blowout either way. This is a close game down to the final whistle.
Pick: San Diego +3.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans
Mike: This is a huge game in the AFC as it will likely decide home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Steelers will still have to win next week at home against Cleveland, but that is as close to a sure thing as you will ever get.
In terms of this game, Pittsburgh has been great during their five-game winning streak, while Tennessee has been shaky the last month. With Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch both out for the Titans, I can see why this spread has moved three full points in Pittsburgh’s favor.
Pick: Pittsburgh -2
Cras: The NFL keeps throwing its best teams at the Steelers and, like many Sportsbook.com members, I expect them to survive and collect another payday on Sunday. Pittsburgh has endured a brutal schedule that might come back to haunt them in the postseason but it won’t hurt them this week.
Tennessee is coming back down to Earth after their fast start and last week’s loss to Houston was a big one. Not only did it put Pittsburgh in position to claim home-field throughout the playoffs but Tennessee also lost their defensive anchor, Haynesworth, for the final two games. That’s enough to make winning this weekend a tough task.
Pick: Pittsburgh -2
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings
Mike: Minnesota clinches the NFC North division with a win but this is not an easy opponent by any means. Tarvaris Jackson will start at quarterback again for Gus Frerotte but I’m not fully sold on Jackson, even if he has played well the last couple of weeks.
Atlanta may be my favorite team in the NFL right now. They run the ball great and they can throw it too. Running will be the key this week because Minnesota has lost defensive tackle Pat Williams which makes them more vulnerable there. I think this is a field goal game either way, so give me the Falcons.
Pick: Atlanta +3
Cras: Atlanta has been getting it done with the run this season and that’s going to be a tough task against Minnesota. The Minnesota defense ranks first against the run and Arizona didn’t even try to establish any type of run game against them last week with just seven attempts.
If Atlanta, the league’s top rushing offense, can’t get anything going on the ground, then it may be too much to ask for rookie quarterback Matt Ryan to get it done through the air. It’s been a magical season for Ryan and the Falcons but it’s clutch time and I think it’s too much to ask of this team to get the job done in Minnesota this week.
Pick: Minnesota -3
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Mike: Washington is one of the most disappointing teams in the league over the last six weeks. They have lost five out of their last six games after starting out the year looking solid at 6-2. The Redskins also look like they have quit on first-year coach Jim Zorn.
Philadelphia has been red-hot since the benching of Donovan McNabb, winning three in-a-row and covering all three. McNabb still seems mad at the organization about it, but I’m sure coach Andy Reid would have done it sooner if he knew it would work. Giving the points here is an easy decision for me.
Pick: Philadelphia -5
Cras: So much for the Redskins being a contender in the NFC East. The only teams they’ve beaten since Week 8 are Detroit and Seattle, two of the worst in the league. The 6-2 start is now a distant memory, as well as any postseason aspirations.
That’s why the majority of bettors at Sportsbook.com love the Eagles this week. Washington is on a downward spiral and the Eagles are on the way up and in search of a spot in the playoffs. More importantly, Philadelphia is a money-making 9-5 ATS and has covered three-straight.
Pick: Philadelphia -5
