THE NFL DOUBLE TAKE
Our Sportsbook.com writers continue to churn out profitable weeks and there are plenty of intriguing matchups for them to dissect this weekend.
Mike improved his record to 21-16-3 with a 3-1 weekend last Sunday and while Cras had a rare losing weekend, he’s still been providing lots of winners with a 23-14-3 ATS record with his picks.
Here’s how they look at Week 11:
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Mike: This spread has moved up to the Giants favored by a touchdown which makes it a lot more attractive for Baltimore backers. Baltimore has won four games in a row and has only lost one game by more than three points all year. That’s incredible considering they have a rookie quarterback.
New York is the best team in football in my opinion, better than Tennessee. However, they are coming off three very difficult games and they will have trouble running against this Baltimore defense. Throw in a costly turnover or two from a hurried Eli Manning and I think this can stay close.
Pick: Baltimore +7
Cras: The Ravens defense has been dealing with some key injuries but as long as Ray Lewis is leading the troops, they are still going to make things happen and that’s what they did last week against the Houston Texans.
Granted, the Giants are in a different league than the Texans, I have to roll with the Ravens in this game because the defense always has its best games against the best competition. They step it up when they play the league’s best and they’ll pick Manning off at least twice in this game and that keeps it close.
Pick: Baltimore +7
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike: Tampa Bay is a great home team and Minnesota is still unproven on the road, but it would be too simplistic to base this pick simply on that fact. The big key is whether Adrian Peterson can control the game on the ground, because if he can, the Viking should keep this game very close.
Tampa Bay quarterback Jeff Garcia is playing at a very high level right now and that will be important as Minnesota has the number three ranked run defense. Peterson is going to get his yards, but I like Tampa’s aggressive defense at home. I would feel a lot better giving a field goal in this game for obvious reasons, but I can’t go against the Bucs.
Pick: Tampa Bay -4
Cras: Neither team has been good against the spread this season and Tampa Bay has disappointed their backers three straight times after a profitable five-game ATS winning streak. However, they’ve had an extra week to prepare for this game and have a 3-1 ATS record at home this season.
This game will be decided by how well Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor can run the ball and I actually expect them to have success against Tampa’s 11th-ranked rushing defense. Tampa Bay won’t be able to run the ball themselves and while they have been successful in the pass game, I expect a close game and that’s why I like the points.
Pick: Minnesota +4
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Mike: The big question in this game is whether Chicago quarterback Kyle Orton will play. The latest is that he will likely start but could be limited in his mobility. This is extremely key because the Bears are not very attractive with Rex Grossman leading the team on the road in Lambeau.
Green Bay has had a tough schedule with three out their last four games on the road, including at Tennessee and Minnesota. The Pack are a game behind both Chicago and the Vikings so this is close to a must win. Green Bay’s last home game was a beat-down of Indy. I’m taking them to cover the 3.5.
Pick: Green Bay -3.5
Cras: A bad Chicago Bears team owned Green Bay last year and handed them two of their three regular season losses so it’s hard to fathom why all the early money is on the hometown Packers in this game. The Pack has shown signs of being a great team but they are still just 4-5 in an NFC North division that has an excellent playoff race shaping up.
Yes, Green Bay had the big win over Indianapolis but they’ve also had issues against some competition they should have beaten. With all that’s at stake in this game, it’s hard to believe it will be anything more than a field goal game.
Pick: Chicago +3.5
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike: The spread for this game has jumped from 3.5 to 5.5 points as 93% of early bettors are taking the home Steelers. A big reason for that fluctuation is that both running back Willie Parker and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger are expected to play despite respective shoulder issues.
San Diego had some tough losses at the beginning of the year and even had to travel to London, England for a game. The Chargers are not running the ball with the success they’ve had in prior year and they will be forced to throw a lot to stay in this game. The good news is that the Steelers cornerback ranks are depleted and Philip Rivers will have enough success to keep it close.
Pick: Chargers +5.5
Cras: The Chargers don’t travel well when they venture East and that has showed with road losses in Miami and Buffalo, not to mention another to New Orleans in London, England. A huge percentage of members like the Steelers as it’s obvious that the Chargers’ road woes have not gone unnoticed.
Neither team has been a sure bet this season as they are both costing their backers money. This game comes down to Philip Rivers being able to throw the ball because LaDainian Tomlinson will have a difficult time running it. That’s why I like Pittsburgh to come out on top in this one.
Pick: Pittsburgh -5.5
