Posted
on 01/29/2008 3:20 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Super Bowl Betting - New
England vs. New York Free Picks
Superbowl Event
- Stats - Betting - Handicapping and football
guide from CappersPicks.com.
Well, after nearly five months of football,
the biggest and most important game of
the season is finally here.
That’s right BetUS.com NFL bettors,
Super Bowl XXLII is finally here and the
good news for bettors is that, after suffering
through an absolutely mediocre ATS season,
I have been on absolute fire since the
start of the postseason, going a solid
7-1-1 ATS in my postseason selections,
with several excellent picks the way, like
the New York Giants’ outright victories
over the Dallas Cowboys in their NFC Divisional
showdown, followed by their Green Bay Packers
in their NFC Championship tilt on Jan.
13 despite the majority of my handicapping
brethren going with the Pack to win outright
if not necessarily covering the 7.5-point
spread that day.
Now, no one
really cares abut past picks – unless
they can help in the future that is.
With that
in mind, I will once again – for
the final time this NFL postseason – put
BetUS.com’s beloved NFL bettors on
the right path to a winning wager with
my 2008 Super Bowl selection.
Since the
game is quickly approaching, I’ll
cut the chit-chat short and get right
to the point.
Now, a lot of people may want to throw
out of lot of meaningless statistics heading
into this contest, but for me, this pick
is extremely simple.
Looking at
both teams and their recent performances,
(including their hook up in their regular
season finale), and I think it’s easy to come to the conclusion
that, not only will the New York Giants,
(13-6 SU, 13-6 ATS, 9-10 O/U) cover the
11½-point spread in this contest,
but that they could actually beat the vaunted
New England Patriots, (18-0 SU, 10-8 ATS,
11-6-1 O/U) outright.
Heck, I’ll
go on record right now and say that if
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has a
similar game to the 21-for-33, 209-yard,
two-touchdown, three-interception performance
he unleashed on the San Diego Chargers
in the AFC Championship game, that the
Patriots will undeniably lose their first
Super Bowl under Bill Belichick.
While the
same could very well be said for Giants
quarterback Eli Manning, the fact of
the matter is that Manning and the Giants
are playing their best football of the
season coming into this contest while
the Patriots looked invincible in the
regular season’s early going
but have shown more chinks in their armor
down the stretch than at any time this
season.
Once again,
without getting into meaningless statistics,
I believe this game will boil down to
one crucial factor – winning
the turnover battle.
I fully believe
that, had the Chargers been able to capitalize
on the Patriots’ many
mistakes two weeks ago, they, and not the
Patriots would be playing in this Super
Bowl.
However,
with injuries to quarterback Philip Rivers,
league-leading rusher LaDainian Tomlinson
and all-pro tight end Antonio Gates,
the Chargers’ offense was
a shell of itself as they were forced into
field goal after field goal in losing 21-12
to the Patriots.
Here is
a look at the game’s Key
Trends, followed by my NFL Superbowl Free
Pick.
Key Giants Trends
The Giants are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with
a winning record.
The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4
games on grass.
The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4
games after accumulating more than 350
total yards in their previous game.
Key Patriots Trends
The Patriots are 36-16-1 ATS in their
last 53 games after allowing less than
15 points in their previous game.
The Patriots are 13-6 ATS vs. a team with
a winning record.
The Patriots are 40-19-3 ATS in their
last 62 games on grass.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 playoff
games.
The Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games
on grass.
The Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games
on grass.
The Under is 4-1-1 in Patriots last 6
games following a S.U. win.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
None Available
Analysis: I know the Patriots have won three Super
Bowl titles under Belichick, but I am
genuinely amazed that the point spread
for this contest is as high as it is,
especially considering the stellar brand
of football the Giants have displayed
over the last five weeks. While I certainly
respect the Patriots and their accomplishments,
I am certain the Giants will cover the
spread – unless Eli Manning reverts
back into his old, inconsistent self and
throws two or three interceptions. Since
Manning has legitimately looked like a
quarterback that can lead his team to a
Super Bowl title I his last four games,
I see no reason to think he’ll come
up with a stinker in this game. Take the
Giants and the points NFL bettors and you’ll
be happy you followed my sound advice once
again. And hey, if you feel the need to
share your winnings with me, that’s
okay too.
NFL Free
Pick: Giants +11½ Points/Under
53 ½ Total Points
06:20 PM EST SUPERBOWL ODDS
New York
Giants +11½ -110
New England
Patriots -11½ -110
Over 53½ -110
Under 53½ -110
Super Bowl XLII Played at University of
Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona. Live
Wagering will be offered throughout the
Game
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