Posted
on 01/29/2008 3:20 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
Why Aren't The Patriots Bigger Favorites? From CappersPicks.com
Superbowl Event
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Super Bowl XLII will be the most watched
football game of the season in North America
and the Super Bowl betting lines are the
most talked about of the year. For Super
Bowl XLII oddsmakers tagged the unbeaten
New England Patriots the 13-point opening
line favorites with a game total of 54.
It's certainly
some heavy lumber for a Super Bowl. But
considering the 18-0 Patriot's 589 points
scored and 75 touchdowns posted during
2007 set all-time NFL records, and the
New York Giants are in as a wild-card team,
the line is a far cry from the largest
point spread in Super Bowl history which
was 18-points set when San Francisco was
favored over San Diego in Super Bowl XXIX
in 1995.
The 49ers won and covered easily by downing
the Chargers 49-26. The total went over
with ease and it was the first time that
both teams scored in all four quarters
of a Super Bowl.
If you take into account New England owns
the best offense in the league, scoring
a robust 36.8 points per game while racking
up 411.3 yards and they're fourth-best
in the NFL defensively, giving up just
17.1 points per game and 288.3 yards, the
line is a complete bargain compared to
the largest ever in Super Bowl XXIX.
Oh yeah, don't forget about a tandem by
the names of Tom Brady and Randy Moss.
Brady, who already has won three Super
Bowls, helped the Patriots rewrite the
record books by throwing for 50 touchdowns.
He broke Peyton Manning's league mark by
one. 23 of those touchdown passes went
to Moss, which lifted the receiver past
Jerry Rice's record of 22.
Brady also set another individual record
in the divisional championship game against
Jacksonville in a 31-20 win by tossing
26 completions in 28 attempts, an NFL record
92.9 percent for regular-season and playoff
games.
With the eye-popping numbers generated
by New England this season, a long with
many other records broken that wasn't mentioned,
oddsmakers could have pegged the Patriots
a much larger favorite easily exceeding
the former largest Super Bowl line in history
of 18-points and not raised one once of
suspicion, not even by the wise guys.
There's a big contrast between the 1994-95
49ers, who own honors as largest favorites
in Super Bowl history, and this year's
Patriots.
Starting with the offenses: San Francisco
scored 505 points during the 1994 regular
season (31.5 ppg), and as mentioned earlier,
New England set a record with 589 (36.8
ppg).
San Francisco claimed 6069 yards of total
offense (362.2 ypg); New England 6580 (411.3
ypg).
The 49ers had 66 offensive touchdowns,
and as mentioned earlier, the Patriots
posted 75 touchdowns during 2007 to set
an all-time NFL record.
The 1994-95 49ers were led by Steve Young.
His quarterback rating was 112.8 which
comes close to Brady's quarterback rating
put up this season of 117.2.
But Young's 35 touchdowns doesn't come
close to Brady's 50. Young had a slightly
better pass completion percentage of 70.3
compared to Brady's 68.9. But Young passed
for a total of 3969 and Brady had nearly
a thousand more with 4806.
There are similarities between Young during
the 1994-95 season and Brady of this year.
But one can certainly make the claim Brady
was better throughout the two seasons being
compared.
Defensively, San Francisco ranked sixth
in the league, allowing 296 total points
(18.5 ppg) and gave up 4894 yards. This
year's New England team ranked fourth defensively,
allowing 274 points (17.1 ppg).
Let's don't forget, San Francisco went
13-3 during the 1994-95 campaign and the
Patriots remain undefeated this season,
as you know.
So why didn't the mighty Patriots, who
many feel are the greatest team ever as
they go for NFL betting history and fourth
Super Bowl victory in less than a decade,
get more respect from the number's guys
by opening them as the 13-point chalk?
Could it be the San Diego team of 1994-95
is weaker then the Giants of this year?
No.
Offensively, the 1994-95 Chargers put
up 346 regular season points (21.6 ppg).
The Giants were slightly better at by putting
up 373 points 23.3 ppg.
Defensively, the 1994-95 Chargers' defense
was stronger then this year's Giants'.
San Diego allowed 306 points (19.1 ppg)
and the Giants surrendered 351 (21.9 ppg).
For those wondering: The 1994-95 Chargers
were led by a guy named Stan Humphries.
His numbers compared to Manning's stats
are very similar with Humphries being stronger
in some areas.
The Chargers got to the Super Bowl in
1995 by winning their first six regular
season games, the only NFL team to do so
that season, and finished the year at 11-5.
With New York finishing the regular season
at 10-6 combined with the above comparison,
one could make the argument the Chargers
were the better team.
After this comparison, it's certainly
fascinating why New England didn't open
up as a bigger favorites then that of 13-points.
Especially considering the general public
loves betting the favorites and overs.
And in high-profile games such as a Super
Bowl, oddsmakers take that into account
and set the lines a bit higher.
Of the Super Bowl games the favorites
and underdogs are actually quite close
in wagering numbers. Depending upon the
closing numbers and books it varies slightly
but the consensus is that the favorites
are 21-17 ATS with three pushes. The underdog
has won the game outright 12 times.
Despite New
England's success and pursuit for perfect,
and the fact ''squares'' (general betting
public) for the most part invest in the
chalk and over, the line is dropping
as Super Bowl 42 betting fanatics are
putting money on the Giants. BetUS NFL
odds currently have New England -11½ with a game
total of 53½.
As the line drops, bettors must be taking
into account Manning's stout play. Manning,
who is playing the football under center
of his career, has four touchdowns to no
interceptions and a 99.2 rating in this
year's playoffs. During the postseason
span, the Giants have scored 68 points
with Manning throwing for a collective
53-of-85 and 602 yards.
Those who already invested in New York
may also be mindful the Giants have covered
the spread in its last five games overall,
and on the road they're a stout 6-2-0 against
the spread this season including postseason.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have dropped the
cash in their last five consecutive and
seven of eight.
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