Posted
on 01/04/2008 8:20 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting - AFC Playoffs Titans at Chargers
NOTABLE
STAT: Vince Young has 94 rushing
yards in his last six games
KEY
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Tennessee
has covered 12 of its last 16 games as
a dog
The Tennessee
Titans (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS), who secured
their wildcard playoff spot last Sunday
night against the Colts, visit Qualcomm
Stadium (grass) to face the San Diego
Chargers (11-5 SU & ATS) in the
first round of the AFC playoffs, in a game
that is slated to begin at 4:30 PM ET on
Sunday.
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds,
the Chargers are listed at -9.5, with the
total posted at 40 points.
Here are some of the NFL football betting
trends and stats relative to this matchup:
* TENN has won four of its last five games
SU
* TENN has covered 11 of its last 15 road
games
* TENN has won eight of its last 11 road
games SU
* TENN is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games
as an underdog
* SD has won and covered its last six
games
* SD has won and covered its last six
home games
* SD has played four of its last six home
games UNDER the total
* SD has covered four of the last five
meetings
* SD has won the last five meetings SU
* SD has won five of the last seven meetings
SU as the home team
Well, Tennessee
did what it had to do last Sunday, although
the Titans are kind of limping into this
one. Vince Young went out again with
a quadriceps injury, later admitting
that the first quad injury he suffered
this year had never quite healed. Kerry
Collins came to the rescue and brought
Tennessee to its win against Indianapolis'
second and third-team players. As Tennessee
comes into the wildcard round, there is
a question as to whether it will be Young
or Collins getting the start. Young insists
it's no problem, that he will play. But
it's nice to know there is a serviceable "relief
pitcher."
On the surface, it might not seem to matter
much, because San Diego looks like a juggernaut
coming in. The Chargers are doing exactly
that, with six straight wins and covers,
and have posted nine of their eleven wins
by ten points or more. San Diego is a sizzling
+24 in its turnover ratio, and a big part
of that was Antonio Cromartie, who intercepted
ten passes, tops in the NFL. LaDanian Tomlinson
had 1474 yards rushing to lead the league.
Phillip Rivers completed 60% of his passes
with 21 TD's. Darren Sproles is always
a threat to break a kick return all the
way.
But you know, we've heard this same song
about San Diego before, haven't we? Yeah,
they were looking almost unbeatable and
then, oops! How about two first-round playoff
exits against the Jets and Patriots in
the last two playoff appearances. That
got Marty Schottenheimer fired. Is Norv
Turner, he of the 65-87-1 career record,
the real difference-maker here? We think
not.
It's Turner's bad luck that he is running
into a revenge-minded Tennessee team that,
characteristic of Jeff Fisher's tenure,
is tough when on the road (5-2-1 ATS this
year) and extremely tough when getting
points (12-3-1 ATS in last 16). Tennessee
shows a different stop unit when defensive
tackle Albert Haynesworth is in the lineup;
without him, the Titans were trampled by
some opposing running games. But with him,
they can control the line of scrimmage
(allowing 92 rushing yards per game).
Vince Young
is ineffective as a passer, we know (9
TD's, 17 INT's), and the conventional
wisdom is that he can make up for some
of his inexperience with the "X Factor," namely
his ability to run. But at this point,
that might be overrated. Young has rushed
for only 94 TOTAL yards in his last six
games, - evidence that his injury lingered.
And he has lost two receivers this week
- wideout Roydell Williams and tight end
Bo Scaife, his teammate from Texas.
Tennessee's
attack could find itself stymied, especially
if Collins, who can't avoid a pass rush,
has to be inserted. It will at least
be ground-bound. But there is every reason
to believe the Titans' "D" can
step up and play like a playoff unit. That
sends us in one direction - "under" the
40 points, as posted in the BetUS NFL betting
odds.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: SAN DIEGO
-9.5, Total: 40
JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 40
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