Posted
on 01/04/2008 12:20 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Playoff Betting - Jacksonville vs. Pittsburgh
Preview Most betting investors would look at this matchup, see a rookie head coach, a team without its starting tailback and bet heavily against the home dogs. But is that truly the case? No team is hotter than the Jacksonville Jaguars right now, but David Garrard is still in his first true year as a starter, and Jack Del Rio has never had any true success as a head coach in the playoffs. The odds may be against Pittsburgh, but the last time they were this team won the Superbowl. While that may be a longshot this year, a win against the Jaguars is not nearly as daunting a task as the betting community believes.
Jacksonville Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
The Steelers
ended up with the number one defense
in the league by season’s
end, stifling opponents to 89.9 rushing
yards and 176.5 passing yards. But without
their defensive-end Aaron Smith, the Steelers
simply do not look like the same defense
that resembled the resurgent Steel Curtain
of 2007.
Making matters
worse is that, without Aaron Smith, the
Steelers have gave up 224 yards to the
Jags in Week 15 and 180 yards to the lowly
Ravens in
Week 17. The Jaguars are the second best
rushing team in the league, and certainly
the best rushing team in the playoffs.
They average 149.4 rushing yards per game,
and Pittsburgh will have trouble containing
Fred Taylor and Mojo on the edges without
Aaron Smith.
David Garrard will once again be free
to dump the ball off to his listless band
of receivers (sorry, but I refuse to get
excited about Ernest Wilford, Reggie Williams
or Matt Jones) because the Steelers will
be forced to bring up eight in to the box
to try and stop the run. Garrard threw
for a 102.2 passer rating on the season,
with 2,509 pass yards, 18 touchdowns and
3 interceptions. His inability to make
mistakes will help the Jags stay the course
as they assault an injury-depleted Pittsburgh
defense with a well-balanced, and conservative,
offensive attack.
Pittsburgh Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
With Willie Parker
sidelined, and those around the NFL
bettors finally realizing that Najeh
Davenport is not a suitable replacement,
the Steelers will be forced to the air.
Big Ben Roethlisberger and his talented
band of pass-catchers average only 192.2
passing yards through the air on average.
The problem here is that when Roethlisberger
has had more than thirty attempts, the
Steelers have gone 3-4 SU.
Hines Ward,
Santonio Holmes and Heath Miller will
have trouble breaking open against a
stiff and violent secondary that holds
opponents to 213.8 pass yards per game
while delivering some bone-crushing hits.
I don’t doubt Big Ben’s
ability to move this offense up and down
the field, but there will be too many defenders
in zone-coverage for Big Ben to find the
seams.
The saving grace here is that Jacksonville
will most likely gameplan for a heavy dose
of Big Ben, freeing up lanes for Davenport.
No, he is not an answer to the rushing
void left by Parker, but he is a proven
vet who runs north-south. Despite a shortened
load, Davenport averaged 4.7 yards per
carry. The Jags huge front line will be
difficult for Davenport to run against.
they silence rushers to only 100.1 rushing
yards per game.
NFL Betting Trends
-Jacksonville is 7-1 ATS in its last 8
games
-Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS in its last 8
games on the road
-Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS when playing
Pittsburgh
-Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
-total has
gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh’s
last 12 games against Jacksonville
Final Verdict
Usually it’s
hard to bet against the Steelers at home,
but this matchup is a tough one for the
home town dogs. Everyone keeps acting
like they were blown out by the Jags
in Week 15, but it was only a one-score
loss. That being said, Jacksonville proved
that they can bang with the Steelers
in cold weather games on the terrible
turf of Heinz Field.
The passionate betting investor may want
to bank on the success of the Steelers
and Big Ben in the playoffs, but this is
a tough matchup to take against the Steelers.
The safe bet is with the Jags tearing up
Heinz Field with a steel-plowing rushing
attack.
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) vs. Pittsburgh
Steelers (10-6)
Saturday, January 5th --- Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh --- 8:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Jacksonville
-1 (37.)
NFL Playoff Free Pick: Jacksonville 24
Pittsburgh 20
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