Posted
on 01/18/2008 3:55 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Betting Action - NFC Championship Tilt - Giants at Packers
Okay, BetUS.com
NFL bettors, if you listened to my sound
advice last week, in the BetUS.com Locker
Room, when I correctly predicted a New
York Giants victory over the Dallas Cowboys,
you’re obviously a happy
camper this week.
For those
bettors who may not have gotten a chance
to read last week’s NFL
Free Picks article – or just decided
to bet on the Cowboys anyway – this
NFC Championship game between the Giants,
(12-6 SU, 12-6 ATS, 8-10 O/U) and Green
Bay Packers, (14-3 SU, 13-3-1 ATS, 13-4
O/U) is another excellent opportunity to
increase the NFL bank roll with what I
believe is an absolutely simple selection.
Let me explain.
Last week’s matchup between the ‘Boys
and G-Men was a ‘no-brainer’ in
my estimation. Although I predicted the
Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl out of
the NFC in my annual NFL preseason Picks
article, I emphatically changed that selection
once the Giants were paired up against
the Cowboys after beating the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers 24-14 in the their NFC wild
card showdown nearly two weeks ago.
The facts
for me were quite simple. The Cowboys
looked absolutely atrocious over the
regular season’s final three
weeks, while the Giants came into the contest
playing their best football of the entire
season in losing to the New England Patriots
38-35 in their regular season finale before
beating the Buccaneers in the playoffs … which
brings me to this matchup against the Packers.
While the Packers are also playing their
best football of the season and will be
playing at home, they will be facing a
Giants team that will certainly give them
a stiffer test than the one the Seattle
Seahawks put up against them in losing
42-20 last week.
I won’t get into the team’s
Week 2 matchup which the Packers easily
won in New York 35-13 for one simple reason – neither
club is the same team that entered that
contest.
After winning
all season on the strength of Brett Favre’s passing, the Packers
have developed a pretty nice rushing attack
with Ryan Grant getting the bulk of the
carries while New York has also seen their
rushing attack blossom in a big way with
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw forming
one of the league’s most productive
duos.
Now, I could
sit here all day and throw out a bunch
of meaningless statistics about both
teams as they enter this contest, but
I won’t – because all of
those stats are going to be meaningless
come game day.
The main
factor that will decide the outcome of
this contest is simple – desire.
Here is
a look at the game’s Key
Trends, followed by my analysis and NFL
Betting Free Pick.
Key Giants Trends
The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four
playoff games as an underdog.
The Giants are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with
a winning record.
The Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last four
playoff road games.
Key Packers Trends
The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last
five games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last
five games after allowing less than 250
total yards in their previous game.
The Packers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last
eight games after allowing less than 90
yards rushing in their previous game.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 4-0 in Giants last four games
as a road underdog.
The Under is 4-0 in Giants last four games
in January.
The Over is 6-0 in Packers last six games
following a S.U. win.
The Over is 4-0 in Packers last four games
as a home favorite.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five
meetings.
The Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last
four meetings.
Analysis:
I expect the Giants’ spectacular
front four to limit Grant while harassing
Favre into at least one turnover while
getting another fine performance from their
own quarterback Eli Manning.
I know three-fourths
of the country is expecting the Packers
to win this contest based on the lore
of their famed ‘Frozen
Tundra’ and the legend of Brett Favre
but I’m here to say the Giants and
Manning are going to ‘shock the world’ by
marching into Green Bay and onto Lambeau
Field - before walking away victorious.
Heck, even
if the Giants don’t win
this contest, the good news for bettors
is that they most certainly will not lose
by eight points. Take the Giants whether
you like them or not and you’ll be
jumping for joy come late Sunday evening.
NFL Free Picks: Giants 21 Packers 17
06:30 PM EST NFL Betting Odds
New York
Giants +7½ -105
Green Bay
Packers -7½ -115
Over 42 -110
Under 42 -110
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