Posted
on 01/04/2008 12:20 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Playoff Betting - Giants vs. Buccaneers
The Giants
and Bucs beat a total of three teams
that had winning records, so it’s
almost fitting that they meet in the Wildcard
matchup of the NFC on Sunday afternoon.
The Giants nearly shocked the world in
Week 17 by taking the Patriots to the limit.
Do they have anything left in the tank
against the Bucs, who have rested nearly
all of their starters for the past three
weeks?
New York Offense vs. Tampa Bay Defense
Believe it
or not but Tampa’s defense
ranks third in the league, allowing only
16.9 points and 278.4 total yards against.
Gaines Adams, the defensive-end taken fourth
overall in the 2007 NFL Draft has exploded
in the second-half of the season and the
secondary is beginning to play with the
fierce turnover mindset that brought them
a bevy of success in the past.
The Giants
average 197.1 passing yards per game
through the air, and Eli Manning looked
incredible last week against the Patriots.
But he has yet to win a playoff game
in his career and his play over the course
of this season has been uninspiring at
best. The Bucs allow only 170.3 passing
yards per game. Derrick Brooks and Cato
June practically live in Eli Manning’s
favorite target zone for passes and take
away any threats underneath in the Tampa-2.
Brandon Jacobs will be a tough matchup
for the Bucs because of his size and his
ability to break yards after initial contact.
The Giants average 134.4 rushing yards
on the ground, and the Bucs small front-seven
allows 107.9 rush yards per game. However,
Jacobs will have to contend with a stiff
line-backing corps in June-Brooks-Ruud
that rarely misses tackles and can contain
him up the middle.
In short, it will be tough for the Giants
to move the ball against a defense that
contains the pass so well and forces teams
to run the ball. Eli Manning has been prone
to mistakes in high-pressure situations,
and Ronde Barber and company must be licking
their chops at the chance for a sweet pick-six.
Tampa Bay Offense vs. New York Defense
Many experts
are calling for Osi Umenyiora and Michael
Strahan to decimate a younger offensive
line in Tampa and get to Jeff Garcia.
What a lot of these experts are underestimating
is Garcia’s good
instincts, and his habit of running forward
when he feels pressure around the edges.
Garcia has led a steady offense, and is
coming off of three weeks of rest. Some
of the Bucs betting backers may be concerned
over rust, but Garcia is a veteran and
proved last year he can be effective in
the playoffs. The Bucs average 209.8 passing
yards per game, and nobody in the Giants
secondary can keep up with Joey Galloway,
especially with Sam Madison looking questionable
for the game. The Giants give up 207.3
passing yards per game.
Earnest Graham
will have to prove if he’s
worth some big money by producing in this
matchup. He averages a solid 4.0 yards
per carry and is a gifted between the tackles
runner who displays excellent field vision
and burst. The Giants rush defense gives
up 97.7 rushing yards, but will miss a
big-hitting line-backer in Kawika Mitchell
who is likely to miss the game. That means
that Graham could break out for a solid
game.
Like Garcia, Graham rarely turns the bowl
over. He has lost only one all season,
and Garcia has only given away four picks.
That kind of ball-hogging offensive play
will steer these pirates to a solid amount
of points on the scoreboard.
NFL Betting Trends
-NYG are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
-NYG are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road
games
-Total has
gone UNDER in 6 of the NYG’s
last 7 road games
-Tampa Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 home
games
-Tampa Bay is 7-3 in its last 10 games
when playing NYG
Final Verdict
Tampa is
a very strong home team, and has enjoyed
a bevy of success against the NFC this
season. The Giants have been riddled
by injuries along its defense, and that
will break open gaps for Graham and scoring
chances for Garcia, who is familiar with
playing the Giants from his stint with
the Eagles last season. But Eli Manning
simply can’t be counted on by the
betting community until he shows flashes
of consistency, or the ability to win a
big game.
New York Giants (10-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(9-7)
Sunday, January 6th --- Raymond James
Stadium, Tampa --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Tampa Bay -1
(39.5)
NFL Playoff Free Pick: NYG 13 Tampa Bay
27
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