NCAA College Football Betting Futures – 2008 Big 10 Odds
BetUS Sportsbook customers who like to see offense will get their wish in the college football season's opening week, when the SMU Mustangs (1-11 SU, 6-6 ATS in 2007), under new management, travel over to Houston to face off against the Rice Owls (3-9 SU, 5-6 ATS in 2007) in a game between Conference-USA rivals that will take place at 8 PM ET on Friday, August 29 at Rice Stadium.
BetUS NCAA Football Betting Odds: RICE -3
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* SMU has lost its last ten games SU
* SMU has covered four of its last 13 games
* SMU has lost its last eight road games SU
* SMU has covered four of its last five road games
* SMU has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total
* RICE has lost 10 of its last 13 games SU
* RICE has covered 11 of its last 18 games
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* RICE has lost five of its last six home games SU
* RICE has played its last six home games OVER the total
* RICE has won and covered five of the last six meetings
* RICE is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings as the home team
* RICE has won the last five meetings SU as the home team
Rice comes back fortified on offense in this, David Bailiff's second season as head coach. Only one player who scored a touchdown for this team departed. Chase Clement operates the spread offense with aplomb, throwing for 29 touchdowns and 3377 yards last season, and he's made plenty of hookups with Jarrett Dillard (79 catches for 14 TD's last year), who may not get the attention of Jeremy Maclin or Michael Crabtree, but is an honest-to-goodness All-America candidate.
Clement was also this team's leading rusher last year, and therein lies the problem. This team, which was land-locked for years under former coach Ken Hatfield, now has a hard time running the ball. On defense the Owls allowed a shade under 43 points per game, 118th in the country, and was one notch below that in defending the pass. They get six starters back on the stop unit, but there is little depth to work with.
The big news in Dallas is that June Jones is taking the reins at SMU, and bringing the run and shoot offense with him. Ordinarily, Justin Willis, a talented junior who tossed 25 TD passes last year, would be the starter for Jones, but Willis was suspended in the spring, and now the race for the QB position is wide-open between five candidates. Whoever gets the job will have solid wide receivers in Aldrick Robinson and Emmanuel Sanders (74 receptions).
A running game must be developed, because Willis' 699 yards led the team. Jones is actually encouraged by his defense, and it had better improve, as the Mustangs were 117th in the country in allowing 39.8 points per game. Opponents were successful on 3rd down attempts 54% of the time, and the Mustangs were the worst anywhere in that regard.
It's important to note that when Jones took over at Hawaii, he transformed a team that was winless the year before to one that won nine games. Eventually the Rainbows made it to the BCS. So he knows how to do a quick turnaround. But with everyone fighting over the quarterback job, no one is going to get a whole lot of snaps in practice, and repetition is a key to mastering Jones' scheme.
If it's Willis, SMU will have an experienced hand. But he's still more mistake-prone than Clement. Defensively, both teams are so bad that it's almost a standoff. But Rice is ahead of SMU in terms of implementing their wide-open attack, and that will mean something here.
Rice is going to be more "together" at this point, so we will lay the points with the Owls, the three-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: RICE -3 **
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