Posted
on 01/28/2007 10:030 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Basketball Handicapping
Staff
CBB - Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (9:00 PM ET - ESPN)
Sportsbook.com: As
the calendar readies for the turn to February,
it means we’re just over
one month away from March Madness. Still,
there’s plenty of business to take
care of between then and now.
With the conference
races heating up and the rivalry games
becoming more and more important, ESPN’s Big Monday will offer
up a showdown between neighbors, Oklahoma
and Oklahoma State. Slated for 9:00 PM ET,
it’s the middle game of three on the
Worldwide Leaders’ networks.
In football,
these teams wage a war called the ‘Bedlam Battle’, on the hardwood,
the rivalry is just an intense. It’s
been a very competitive series as well, with
the teams splitting the last 20 games, both
straight up and against the spread. The home
team has generally enjoyed the most success,
winning five of the last six games.
If recent patterns
are anything to consider for Monday’s game, that home team trend
is likely to continue, as Cowboys’ coach
Sean Sutton would have better luck riding
eight seconds on a bull named Fu Manchu than
getting his team to play well on the road.
So far this season, the results have been
ugly: 1-7 straight-up and 1-6 ATS. This trend
shows it isn’t an isolated problem
either:
Oklahoma State is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units)
in road games over the last two seasons.
The average score was Oklahoma State 65.6,
opponent 78.5 - (Rating = 4*)
The average point deficit of 13 ppg is a
definitive concern for Sutton.
Meanwhile,
the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Oklahoma
is about as tough as it gets when it comes
to road venues. The Sooners always seem
to be at their best in front of the home
folks. Throw in the rivalry aspect and
a national television crowd on Big Monday,
and the odds are certainly in the hosts’ favor.
So far this season, the Sooner and head
coach Jeff Capel are 9-2 straight-up and
4-3 ATS at home, outscoring foes by a healthy
17 ppg. They boast impressive wins over Texas
Tech and Arkansas, but fell at the hands
of Michael Beasley and Kansas State, so they
are beatable.
With the pointspread
expected to be in the high single digits,
here’s another
trend to consider:
Oklahoma State is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units)
versus good teams, outscoring their opponents
by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the
last 2 seasons. The average score was Oklahoma
State 66.7, opponent 74.3 - (Rating = 3*)
The StatFox Power Ratings show Oklahoma
by 10, while the Outplay Factor Ratings say
Oklahoma by10.2. The StatFox Forecaster calls for a 75-66
Oklahoma win.
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