NCAA Tournament Facts
and Figures
It's that
time of year again and everyone from
the seasoned professional to the novice
soccer mom with be filling out their
brackets in search of the perfect ticket.
Unlike last year, 2007-08 was an interesting
regular season with very little switching
of the top spots and at the end, it
all remained the same. The top four
in the Preseason poll were (1) North
Carolina, (2) UCLA, (3) Memphis and
(4) Kansas. After all was said and
done, those four finished in the exact
same order.
Only three teams
held down the number one ranking at one
point this season, led by North Carolina
who was number one for 13 weeks over
two different parts of the year. Next
was Memphis for five weeks and Tennessee
for just one week. Kansas never left
the top five this season but never made
it into the top spot while UCLA dipped
outside the top five for only two weeks
but failed to garner a top ranking. Wisconsin
finished 5th in the ESPN/USA Today poll
but was able to lock down only a 3rd
seed.
Taking a look
at some prior years can tell us a lot
heading into this postseason. 2007 was
a postseason that was slightly of mark
considering the amount of favorites that
won in the first round. Of the first
32 games, only five lower seeds won and
three of those were 9th seeds over 8th
seeds. The other two were 11th seeded
VCU over Duke and 11th seed Winthrop
over Notre Dame. It didn’t end
there. While only two top seeds made
it to the Final Four, it was the first
year since 1993 that all four teams consisted
of #1 and #2 seeds.
2006 was the
second straight season that both a 13th
and 14th seed upset a 4th and 3rd seed
respectively. Northwestern St. took out
Iowa while Bradley beat Kansas with the
latter making it all the way to the Sweet
16. Overall, there were nine lower seeds
that won in the first round but that
was the most that we have seen over the
last four tournaments. However, the most
shocking aspect was that no number one
seed made it to the Final Four, the first
time that has happened since 1980.
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2005 had its
share of opening round upsets but it
was not a bracket full of shockers. Of
the 32 opening round games, only eight
lower seeds won outright and three of
those were nines over eights. 13th seeded
Vermont and 14th seeded Bucknell were
the two biggest upsets. Two top seeds,
North Carolina and Illinois, made it
to St. Louis but Louisville and Michigan
St. also broke through as four and five
seeds respectively. It was the first
year since 2002 that teams lower than
a 3rd seed made it to the Final Four.
In 2004, it was
even more sided toward the favorite as
only four lower seeds advanced with 12th
seeds Manhattan and Pacific leading the
way. UAB and Nevada took out Washington
and Michigan St. respectively as the
only other upsets. Those two teams actually
made it to the final 16 and along with
Alabama, were the only two teams seeded
lower than 5th to advance that far. Of
the final four teams, only one team,
Georgia Tech, was seeded lower than a
two and the Yellow Jackets were not far
back with a three seed.
2003 saw only
eight lower seeds advance past the first
round with three of those being the nine
seeds. Of the five other upsets, 13th
seeded Tulsa and 12th seeded Butler were
the two biggest shockers. The four top
seeds, Kentucky, Arizona, Texas and Oklahoma,
advanced to the final eight but Texas
was the only team to make it to New Orleans.
Third seeded Syracuse won the title by
taking out two number one seeds and the
Orange were the only non-number one or
two seed to win it all over the prior
eight years.
One thing is
clear and that is we have never seen
all four top seeds making it to the semifinal
round. The closest was back in 1999 when
three number ones made it to Indianapolis
as it was top seed Connecticut that won
the whole thing. As mentioned earlier,
2006 was the first year since 1980 that
no number one seed advanced but it was
number two seed Louisville that held
off a five, six and an eight seed back
then. At least two number ones have made
it to the semis in 17 of the last 29
years while three have made it only three
times.
Since the field
expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have
been plenty of major upsets but none
involving a number one seed. It will
happen some year but it's anyone's guess
if it's this year or in 20 years. Since
1985, four number two seeds have fallen
with the most recent being Iowa St. in
2001. The three seed has lost 15 times,
Iowa being the latest victim in 2006
while the four seed has gone down 19
times, none last year. Five times we
have seen at least three 13th or lower
seeds advance past the first round, 2001
being the last year of that occurrence.
Past tournament
history can tell you a lot but it can
also tell you nothing. Upsets just happen
and they can come out of nowhere but
some can be seen coming. The higher seeds
clearly advance more but the trick is
finding the ones that won't. A lot of
it is based on momentum heading into
the tournament which I will touch on
and a lot of it is based on just simple
matchup advantages. Balance and depth
are two important factors that are often
overlooked but play a huge role as fresh
legs can be a big part of winning or
losing.
How a team finished
the regular season and how it did in
the conference tournaments can carry
over into the big event. Conference champions
bring in a lot of momentum, not only
because of the title but also because
of the winning streak that comes with
it. For the lower rated conferences,
winning the postseason tournament is
a must and if there is a team that knows
that, it is Davidson. The Wildcats own
the dubious record of finishing undefeated
twice during the regular conference season
(1996 and 2005) and failing to make the
NCAA Tournament.
Five teams this
season enter with winning streaks of
10 games or more. Belmont (13), Wisconsin
(10), Cornell (16), UCLA (10) and Davidson
(22) all carry some significant momentum
but notice only Wisconsin and UCLA are
from major conferences. The other three
teams have schedule strengths of 289th
(Belmont), 298th (Cornell) and 141st
(Davidson). How about negative momentum?
Of the 65 teams, 34 teams come in on
a losing streak but 32 of those teams
have only a one-loss run going. Indiana
and Louisville are the only squads with
more than one loss heading in and both
are on two-game skids.
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