NBA Handicapping -
Big Al McMordie (BigAl.com)
It's the
time of the season where NBA coaches
REALLY earn their money. The NBA Playoffs
is largely about three key points:
Talent, defense, and adjustments. Naturally,
you can't win without talent on the
court. Defense is another key, as well
as strategic adjustments by the coaching
staff. If you don't think coaching
strategy is that important, think again.
The Spurs and coach Gregg Popovich have
seen it all, winning 4 NBA titles since
1999. They’ve beaten run and gun
teams like the Lakers and Suns, and slow
down, defensive-oriented teams, such
as last year’s NBA Finals against
the Cavaliers, a 4-0 sweep, and 2005's
Finals vs. the Pistons.
They showcased
their experience in the last series,
dispatching the talented, veteran Suns
again in 5 games. Now a talented young
team threatens the defending champs,
as the Hornets dominated Game 1, 101-82.
New Orleans shot 50 percent from the
field, outrebounded the Spurs 50-34
and held Tim Duncan to one of the worst
nights of his postseason career. “They’re a
hell of a basketball team,” Popovich said. “They can play with
anyone. They’re real.” That
means three of the six worst losses of
the season for San Antonio have come
at the hands of New Orleans (the Hornets
also won 100-75 and 102-78 in the regular
season).
The Hornets
present a unique challenge as they
have a one-two inside punch of Tyson
Chandler and David West, a sparkplug
in superstar Chris Paul, and a long-range
threat in Peja Stojakovic. Don’t count out the Spurs
just yet, as they’ve been through
wars like this so many times. Four years
ago when the Lakers beat the Spurs in
the playoffs, the Lakers simply packed
the defensive paint to double team Tim
Duncan, and let the San Antonio guards
shoot from long range. They failed miserably,
so the Spurs went out in the off-season
and upgraded their three-point shooting.
Shooting the trey was a huge asset as
they won the title in 2005 and 2007 with
reliable long range threats like Brent
Barry, Robert Horry and Manu Ginobili.
Which brings up some interesting
strategic moves in other playoff series.
The Pistons decided to go physical up-front
in Game 1 against Orlando, pushing Dwight
Howard out of his comfort zone. It worked,
leading to Detroit's 91-72 win. Flip
Saunders deployed the team in a zone
for the second half, and it flummoxed
the Magic. The game got heated at times,
leading to technicals against Rasheed
Wallace along with Orlando's Hedo Turkoglu
and Rashard Lewis. Howard had just 12
points, eight rebounds after being the
first player to score 20 points and grab
20 rebounds in three playoff games since
Wilt Chamberlain did it in 1972.
Just as important a note to keep an
eye on is that Howard injured his left
thumb and played with blue tape protecting
it.
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He says
it’s fine, but watch his
numbers carefully the next few games.
The Pistons have a huge edge in the backcourt
with Billups and Hamilton, as Orlando
has had a shaky backcourt all season.
It’s clear the Pistons are going
to pack the paint and harass Dwight Howard,
daring the Magic guards to beat them.
They failed in Game 1, with Orlando shooting
40% from the field and 2-of-15 from long
range. Five Orlando guards shot 8-of-23. "We
always just try to change it up on Howard," Detroit
coach Flip Saunders said. "We sent
a lot of bodies at him. We wanted to
keep a fresh body on him all the time." Can
Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy come up
with an adjustment?
Two years ago the Lakers made a clear
strategic challenge to the Suns. Phil
Jackson didn't want to play the Suns
run-and-gun game, and he saw that during
the regular season, Kobe Bryant had big
games against the Suns, but the Lakers
still lost most of them. So he changed
strategy, spreading the ball around with
Kobe taking fewer shots, and they pushed
the ball into the low post to take advantage
of the more finesse Suns. They nearly
won Game 1 and did win Game 2 on the
road as a dog.
In Game
1, Kwame Brown (14 points) and Lamar
Odom (21 points) got shots and points,
and the Lakers won the points-in-the-paint
category, 42-30. In Game 2, Odom had
21, Brown had 12 and they held the Phoenix
offense to 93 points and 42% shooting.
All of which slowed the pace down, and
notice that both games went under the
total. Pay close attention to strategic
adjustments during playoff series, and
less attention to regular season meetings.
After all, the Celtics dominated the
Atlanta Hawks during the regular season,
then lost 3 straight at Atlanta last
week. Good coaches will make adjustments,
which can influence the side and total.
It’s the job of the handicapper
to keep up with these moves, and even
wager against poor coaches who might
not have a clue about adjustments.
Good luck,
as always...Al McMordie.
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