Dave
Cokin - Houston We Have Liftoff!!
18 in a row! There's
no better example of backing a hot roller
at the dice table than the Houston Rockets.
Some ascribe to the theory that a hot roller
is going to cool off soon so they play
against them. The more successful tried
and true method is to ride the hot streak
until they go cold and THEN jump off.
The Rockets couldn't be hotter, winning
18 in a row. After they had won 8 in a
row, the contrarian would have reasoned, "They're
overvalued. I'm playing against them." That
reasoning would have failed as they won
another 4 in a row. Then when Yao Ming
got hurt, they would have thought, "Aha!
NOW'S the time to bet against the Rockets."
Then Houston ripped
off 6 more wins, both straight up and against
the spread, minus their star center.
This is also a great example of how teams
can pull together after a key injury and
continue to play well. I recall the 1980
NBA Finals when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar twisted
an ankle in Game 5 and sat out Game 6. Everyone
figured the Lakers were dead, but before
the game wise old sage Bill Russell commented, "Oh,
no. Many times when a star player goes out,
role players off the bench can step in and
the team won't miss a beat. In the long term,
missing a star player can be a problem, but
in the short term, a good team can survive."
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Which is just what
is happening with the Rockets. They've been
motivated to keep this hot streak going.
They are 27-3 since Jan. 4.One reason is
the play of 27-year old Luis Scola, the NBA's
oldest rookie. Scola is averaging 12.4 points
and 6.4 rebounds and shooting 59 percent
in 18 games as a starter. He's even better,
14.4 and 7.4, since Yao Ming was injured.
Scola was a two-time Most Valuable Player
in the Spanish league and was the leading
scorer on Argentina's gold medal 2004 Olympic
team.
In addition, Rafer Alston and Shane Battier
are having the best years of their career,
while Tracy McGrady is healthy and shining
on and off the court. Oh, and let's not overlook
the importance of defense. Houston is second
in the NBA (tops in the West) allowing 43%
shooting by opponents and fourth overall
allowing 92 ppg. First-year coach Rick Adelman
was brought in to upgrade the offense. He
has, as they average 97.5 points, but most
impressive has been their continually strong
'D'. And that's needed even more with Ming
on the shelf.
Simply put, the Rockets are a team that doesn't
rely on one star to carry them. With Ming
out, they can fall back on McGrady, talented
role players like Battier and the rookie
Scala, plus the best defense in the West.
When they played New Orleans on Saturday,
my analysis on the game was, "Combine
total confidence with major motivation and
you've got a dangerous combo. That's the
Houston Rockets these days. They're playing
with a major chip on their shoulder, and
they're obviously on a phenomenal run. New
Orleans had to play Friday at home and now
must hit the road to face this rested and
red hot host. I'll get aboard the Houston
express for this one." The Rockets won
and covered again, 106-96. It didn't concern
me that Houston had covered its previous
nine games. I've been in this business a
long time, and it's smarter to jump aboard
the freight train than to try and jump in
front of it!
Contrast that team with one like the LA Clippers.
LA has also had injuries, but unlike the
Rockets, they are a disinterested, dysfunctional
bunch heading to the draft lottery instead
of the playoffs. After losing to the Lakers
by 39 points, Corey Maggette said, "We
don't have a lot of guys playing the right
way." Doesn't sound like team-harmony,
does it? "Any time you get dusted pretty
badly, then the best course of action is
to go and play again," Coach Mike Dunleavy
said. After which they lost at home to miserable
Minnesota as a 4-point favorite.
"It's going to be easier for us to have
a chance at winning," Chris Kaman said
of playing some bad teams. "It doesn't
mean we'll win, though." Doesn't sound
like team a team with confidence, does it?
The Clippers just concluded a stretch playing
11 of 12 games in their own city, yet they
are on a 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS run.
Again, motivation and interest are so important
this time of the basketball season. Don't
try and guess WHEN a team like the Rockets
is going to cool off, and be cautious about
wagering on a team like the Clippers with
so many problems they have on and off the
court. Riding with the hot team and going
against the cold team is smarter than trying
to play the contrarian.
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